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V. 8:14 (574-574): A professional solves our monthly mystery
V. 8:14 (574-574): A professional solves our monthly mystery
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A professional solves our monthly mystery
It appears that a professional topped the submissions for the March mystery chart (Figure 1). James S. Vick of Kent, Connecticut, correctly identified the chart as that of 1980 soybeans, just before liftoff (Figure 2). Mr. Vick's analysis follows:
James S. Vick
JV Trading
Kent, Connecticut
The Mystery Chart in your March issue is a daily soybean chart from about May 15, 1979, to June 23, 1980. The chart depicts a low in April 1980, which preceded a seven-month rise of more than $2.00 a bushel. However, the moves in 1979 and 1980 were dwarfed by a 13-month decline (from November 1980 to December 1981), which carried beans down about $6.00 a bushel.
The chart, as printed in your March issue, appears to have contract rollovers embedded in at least five places (every two months from mid-October 1979 to mid-June 1980). The rollovers show on the chart as upward gaps of about 2 cents each. This distorts levels of support/resistance and skews the trendlines, compared with what they would have been on a specific or continuous contract. The rollovers make the decline appear more gradual than it actually was and would likewise make the ensuing advance appear steeper.
It appears that a professional topped the submissions for the March mystery chart (Figure 1). James S. Vick of Kent, Connecticut, correctly identified the chart as that of 1980 soybeans, just before liftoff (Figure 2). Mr. Vick's analysis follows:
James S. Vick
JV Trading
Kent, Connecticut
The Mystery Chart in your March issue is a daily soybean chart from about May 15, 1979, to June 23, 1980. The chart depicts a low in April 1980, which preceded a seven-month rise of more than $2.00 a bushel. However, the moves in 1979 and 1980 were dwarfed by a 13-month decline (from November 1980 to December 1981), which carried beans down about $6.00 a bushel.
The chart, as printed in your March issue, appears to have contract rollovers embedded in at least five places (every two months from mid-October 1979 to mid-June 1980). The rollovers show on the chart as upward gaps of about 2 cents each. This distorts levels of support/resistance and skews the trendlines, compared with what they would have been on a specific or continuous contract. The rollovers make the decline appear more gradual than it actually was and would likewise make the ensuing advance appear steeper.
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