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V. 6:9 (340-345): SIDEBAR: Other Research
V. 6:9 (340-345): SIDEBAR: Other Research
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Other Research
There are at least two reasons why other researchers have not found the significant dependencies described here and in the October 1987 S&C article on money supply.
First, most of the other workers in this area have used either serial or auto correlation or runs tests (see for example, P. Cottner, Random Character of Stock Market Prices, MIT Press, 1964). As I pointed out in the April 1988 S&C issue, there are some significant problems associated with using correlation techniques on this data. Further, correlation only tests for one form of serial dependency there are other forms that would be missed. The same holds true for tests based on runs. Statisticians apparently cannot agree if runs tests are tests of randomness or independence (see S&C, September 1986).
There are at least two reasons why other researchers have not found the significant dependencies described here and in the October 1987 S&C article on money supply.
First, most of the other workers in this area have used either serial or auto correlation or runs tests (see for example, P. Cottner, Random Character of Stock Market Prices, MIT Press, 1964). As I pointed out in the April 1988 S&C issue, there are some significant problems associated with using correlation techniques on this data. Further, correlation only tests for one form of serial dependency there are other forms that would be missed. The same holds true for tests based on runs. Statisticians apparently cannot agree if runs tests are tests of randomness or independence (see S&C, September 1986).
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