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V.8:6 (234-235): Confessions of a technical heretic by Grant Noble
V.8:6 (234-235): Confessions of a technical heretic by Grant Noble
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Confessions of a technical heretic by Grant Noble
Recently, I chatted with someone who runs a fairly well-known advisory service. He mentioned that one client tested more than 700 computerized systems and came to the conclusion that some worked well in certain markets, but none worked in all markets. In this day of megabytes and optimization, few want to go to the trouble of testing that many systems. But the overwhelming majority of technicians would agree that no single method exists to unlock the door to trading heaven. However, these same technicians also devoutly believe a combination of mechanical methods (plus a few "discoveries") will do the trick.
A vast industry of books and software caters to this viewpoint. Twenty years ago, any self-respecting firm would have dismissed stochastics, Gann angles and so forth as so much mumbo-jumbo. Today, you can count the fundamentalist publications on your fingers. The pendulum has swung. This fascination with all things technical is as wrong as the contempt it suffered 20 years ago.
Furthermore, we are reaching the limits of what is commonly understood as technical analysis. Without a fresh approach, technicians are doomed to perpetual frustration.
Recently, I chatted with someone who runs a fairly well-known advisory service. He mentioned that one client tested more than 700 computerized systems and came to the conclusion that some worked well in certain markets, but none worked in all markets. In this day of megabytes and optimization, few want to go to the trouble of testing that many systems. But the overwhelming majority of technicians would agree that no single method exists to unlock the door to trading heaven. However, these same technicians also devoutly believe a combination of mechanical methods (plus a few "discoveries") will do the trick.
A vast industry of books and software caters to this viewpoint. Twenty years ago, any self-respecting firm would have dismissed stochastics, Gann angles and so forth as so much mumbo-jumbo. Today, you can count the fundamentalist publications on your fingers. The pendulum has swung. This fascination with all things technical is as wrong as the contempt it suffered 20 years ago.
Furthermore, we are reaching the limits of what is commonly understood as technical analysis. Without a fresh approach, technicians are doomed to perpetual frustration.
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