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Stocks & Commodities V. 26:11 (32-36): My Kondratieff Wave by Koos van der Merwe
Stocks & Commodities V. 26:11 (32-36): My Kondratieff Wave by Koos van der Merwe
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My Kondratieff Wave by Koos van der Merwe
The Boom & The Bust. Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff believed that a collapse in the economy would be caused by companies that would not be able to repay their loans and would go bankrupt. Are we at that point?
Nikolai Kondratieff was a Russian economist (18921938) who observed that capitalist economies could be analyzed by wave theory. Kondratieff theorized that economic forces repeated themselves in a pattern of a 54- to 55-year boom-and-bust cycle. He described a booms collapse as characterized by renunciation of debt. He believed that the collapse would be caused by companies that would not be able to repay their loans and would go bankrupt.
Whether it is company debt, mutual fund popularity, technology investment, or a mortgage subprime excess, Kondratieff would have described the bursting of the present stock market bubble as just another loan renunciation, which todays subprime crisis basically boils down to.
For his effort, and his failure to proclaim the death of capitalism, he was arrested and eventually executed by the Stalinist regime.
THE KONDRATIEFF WAVE
Many writers have argued that the Kondratieff wave, or the K-wave as it is commonly known, is only a study of long cycles of debt buildup and repudiation; that it is not exclusively a cycle about price inflation and deflation periods.
The Boom & The Bust. Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff believed that a collapse in the economy would be caused by companies that would not be able to repay their loans and would go bankrupt. Are we at that point?
Nikolai Kondratieff was a Russian economist (18921938) who observed that capitalist economies could be analyzed by wave theory. Kondratieff theorized that economic forces repeated themselves in a pattern of a 54- to 55-year boom-and-bust cycle. He described a booms collapse as characterized by renunciation of debt. He believed that the collapse would be caused by companies that would not be able to repay their loans and would go bankrupt.
Whether it is company debt, mutual fund popularity, technology investment, or a mortgage subprime excess, Kondratieff would have described the bursting of the present stock market bubble as just another loan renunciation, which todays subprime crisis basically boils down to.
For his effort, and his failure to proclaim the death of capitalism, he was arrested and eventually executed by the Stalinist regime.
THE KONDRATIEFF WAVE
Many writers have argued that the Kondratieff wave, or the K-wave as it is commonly known, is only a study of long cycles of debt buildup and repudiation; that it is not exclusively a cycle about price inflation and deflation periods.
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