{"title":"Volume 31 (2013)","description":"\u003cp\u003eBrowse Volume 31 (2013) articles by issue:\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(4,minmax(0,1fr));gap:10px;text-align:center;\"\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-01#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1301_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 January cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eJanuary\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-02#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1302_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 February cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eFebruary\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-03#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1303_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 March cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eMarch\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-04#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1304_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 April cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eApril\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-05#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1305_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 May cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eMay\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-06#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1306_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 June cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eJune\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-07#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1307_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 July cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eJuly\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-08#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1308_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 August cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eAugust\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-09#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1309_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 September cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eSeptember\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-10#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1310_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 October cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eOctober\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-11#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1311_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 November cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eNovember\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-12#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1312_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 December cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eDecember\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"?constraint=issue-13#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"display:block;text-decoration:none;\"\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https:\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/1313_Minicover.gif\" alt=\"Volume 31 Bonus Issue cover\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto;display:block;\"\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"margin-top:8px;\"\u003eBonus Issue\u003c\/div\u003e\u003c\/a\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","products":[{"product_id":"stcov31466in","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:9 (44-48, 66): Interview: Forex Forecasting With Vikram Murarka by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan","description":"Interview: Forex Forecasting With Vikram Murarka by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBeyond The Horizon\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eVikram Murarka has been forecasting, trading, and hedging currencies since\n1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader at Essar Group, he managed a\nforex exposure of $1.2 billion. In 1996 he founded Kshitij Consultancy Services,\na leading forex risk management advisory firm in India. He regularly writes on\nforex risk management issues, including a series titled Color Of Money. He\nhas contributed articles to this magazine as well as to industry journals such\nas the Euromoney Foreign Exchange Handbook (UK), Global Treasury News\n(UK), The Outlook Magazine (India) and in financial newspapers such as the\nHindu Business Line in India. Since 2010, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has\nbeen including his currency forecasts in its quarterly Professional Forecasters\nSurvey, which sometimes serves as an input for policymaking.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eStocks \u0026amp; Commodities Editor Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan interviewed Murarka\nvia Skype and email in mid-July 2013.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTell us a little bit about yourself.\nHow did you get interested in\nthe financial markets and specifically\nthe forex market?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMy getting into the forex market was\nan accident I would say, a bit like Obelix\nfalling into the cauldron of magic potion.\nI was in my first job, in the finance department\nof a large conglomerate Essar\nSteel in Mumbai. Initially, I was given\nodd jobs like depositing checks into the\nbank and filing papers.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSlowly, I found myself helping a\ncoworker who used to do the hedge\ntransactions (forward contracts) for the\ncompany, negotiating the rates with the\nbanks. The company had a very large\nforex loan book, some $1.2 billion in\n1991, and the hedges were to mitigate\nthe forex risk on these loans.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI remember she didn't use to file any papers\nor keep any records. The bosses were\nnot very happy about that, of course. I took\nit on myself to build a filing system and\nkeep proper track of the forward contracts\nwe entered into in those days, it was all\ncalculators and large paper registers. At\none point, I was asked to stand in for her\nwhen she took a marriage leave. But when\nshe returned after a couple of months, I\nwas not asked to discontinue. Rather, they\nreassigned her to another post. Incidentally, she resigned shortly thereafter.\nThe moral of the story: If you want\nto get into forex, file papers.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGoing further into history, maybe\nit was destiny. I do remember being\nintrigued by currency rates even\nas a nine-year-old kid and later in\ncollege where I studied economics.\nI remember asking my professor\nwhat determined the currency rates\nbetween different countries. She\nwas flummoxed. I dont blame her. I am\nsometimes still flummoxed today!","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133907267953,"sku":"V31C09_617INTE","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_15aa2769-d574-466c-b26d-e402fc1f4847.jpg?v=1739656445"},{"product_id":"stcov315qaby1","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:5 (57): Q\u0026A by Don Bright","description":"Q\u0026amp;A by Don Bright\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMARGIN CALLS WITH PORTFOLIO MARGIN\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI have been trading for many years,\nbut I have some concerns regarding my\nbroker. Although I was promised something\ncalled portfolio margin, which\nwas supposed to have a leverage of six\ntimes my capital, I have received margin\ncalls when using a much lower amount.\nShould I pursue other alternatives, such\nas trading with a firm like yours? How\ndoes your firm, and others like yours,\nmonitor the risks taken by its traders?\nHow do you ensure that traders dont\nblow out a lot of money? I have heard\nhorror stories from some traders. Am I\nmissing something here? I hope you can\nclarify this for me.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNatofan\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eYou have good reasons to be concerned,\nand your questions address some\nthings that are often misunderstood.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLets talk about portfolio margin first.\nRetail brokerage firms\nhave been offering 6:1\nleverage to their larger\naccounts accounts\nof around $100,000.\nThis can work, but\nunfortunately it often\ndoesnt. The brokerages\ncan decide on their own\nthat youre too risky for\nthem, and they can invoke their own risk\ntolerance to give you more restrictions.\nThis has caused a problem for many\ntraders I know, and its something you\nneed to be aware of.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThings are different in our world of\nprofessional trading. Our traders are\nusing our money to trade with, entering\ntrades that may be 50 times their\nequity, such as with the opening-only\nplay and correlated pairs. Our traders\nmay, for example, enter a large number\nof orders premarket, in anticipation of\ngetting filled on only a few extreme cases\nwhere they can make quick profits. This generally cannot be done with a retail\naccount, with or without a portfolio\nmargin feature.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133909102961,"sku":"V31C05_548QA","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_35a08b22-73b4-414c-92f2-282c823daeb7.jpg?v=1739656545"},{"product_id":"stcov31146mi","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:10 (10-15, 46): The Missing Link, Part 2 by Mircea Dologa","description":"The Missing Link, Part 2 by Mircea Dologa\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA Golden Approach\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn this second part of a two-part series, you see the time \u0026amp; price\nrelationship develop in real time on a chart of gold futures.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLast month in part 1, I discussed how I examine the time\n\u0026amp; price relationship in the market by focusing on the\nfourth wave, W(4). I used a combination of Elliott wave\nanalysis, Gann methodology, and mapping multiple\ntime frames, all of which I consider before making any final\ntrade determinations. Once this analysis has been performed,\nthe next step, which is a detailed study of the particular market\nyou are trading, comes naturally. Here, Ill use the gold\ncontinuous futures contract as an example.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe price of gold futures tends to exhibit a complex development,\nwhich is why I chose to use it as an example to\ndiscuss the relationship between time \u0026amp; price. Understanding this relationship can help you identify the optimal time frame\nsetup for your market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe development of W(4) wave is fundamental in revealing\nwhere the current impulsive pattern, or main direction of the\ntrend, terminates. Here, I will present some arguments that\nexpose the future potential of W(4) and W(5) waves, with W(5)\nterminating the current parabolic impulsive pattern.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIndirect and direct\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf you closely observe the monthly chart of the gold continuous\nfutures contract in Figure 1, you can see that the time \u0026amp;\nprice elements efficiently predict the development of W(4)\nwave and W(5) wave.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIndirect impact: The indirect impact of the price \u0026amp; time\nrelationship of W(2) wave on the development of W(3) is\nrelevant. The long duration of W(2) implied a strong buildup\nof the markets kinetic energy, which, as a consequence, had a strong W(3) wave momentum, responsible for its parabolic\nshape. Price-wise, the size of W(3) wave was 2.146 times the size\nof W(1), climbing all the way up to the 1923.7 key level, thus\nhalting the market flow at exactly this Fibonacci key level.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe high-steamed momentum of W(3) wave implies a deeper\nthan classic retracement (38.2%) of W(4) wave. On the other\nhand, you could say that this retracement is still in progress due\nto its current position in the OSC (5,35) indicator on the subchart\nin Figure 1 outside the 0.901.40 W(4) zone. In addition, this\ntremendous parabolic trajectory occurred in 144 bars, a legendary\nGann number period the square of 12 (12 x 12 = 144\nbars). This number will help define the future time retracement\ndegree of W(4) wave. Hence, it becomes necessary to be aware\nof the following numbers of bars when it comes to observing\ntime: 18, 36, 54, 72, 90, 108, 126, 144, and so on numbers\nthat represent Gann ratios (eighths, quarters, and halves).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBefore continuing, I think its necessary to mention something\nabout the validity of this type of labeling for the entire\nimpulsive pattern. The W(2) duration of 236 bars may appear\nto be confusing, but this W(3) wave labeling (Figure 1) is one\nof the most probable due to multiple confirming factors:","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133910937969,"sku":"V31C10_628DOLO","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_a0ef25d2-947a-46c7-9c97-3553f4729e8e.jpg?v=1739656657"},{"product_id":"stcov314fufo2","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:8 (43): Futures For You by Carley Garner","description":"Futures For You by Carley Garner\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eINTERMARKET RELATIONSHIPS\nFOR FUTURES TRADERS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAn intermarket relationship is simply\nthe manner in which particular markets\nbehave in relation to each other; more\nspecifically, it is the correlation between\ntwo otherwise unrelated markets. Among\nthe most monitored relationships are\nthose between stocks and bonds, and the\nUS dollar and commodity prices.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMost people assume that stocks and\nbonds will always be negatively correlated\n(that is, moving in the opposite\ndirection). But this is a simplistic view\nthat suggests investors have only two\nchoices, stocks and bonds; money\nmoved out of one typically coincides\nwith money moved into the other. There\nare, however, times when both assets\ncan move higher or lower together.\nFor example, in the early stages of the\nFederal Reserves quantitative easing\ncampaign, the never-ending printing of\nUS dollars and the subsequent need for\nliquidity to find a home caused nearly all\nasset prices to move higher in lockstep.\nDuring this time, the equity market\nand Treasury securities were both able\nto climb to multiyear highs. And again\nmore recently, statistics on the past 180\ntrading days, as of early June, suggest\nthat the S\u0026amp;P 500 futures contract and\nthe 30-year bond futures contract were\nnegatively correlated a mere 40% of the\ntime. This leaves plenty of time (60%) for\nthe markets to be trading outside of what\nis the conventional expectation.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAn interesting intermarket relationship\nthat is surprisingly reliable but that\nhas managed to go under the radar is the\nnegative correlation between the S\u0026amp;P\n500 and the Japanese yen. According to\nstats spanning the previous 180 trading\nsessions (as of early June), these two\nmarkets traded in opposite directions\napproximately 91% of the time! Based\non this information, anyone who was\nlooking for a crack in what was then\nthe magnificent stock rally may have\nlooked to any strength in the yen versus\nthe dollar (a higher yen futures contract,\nor a lower USD\/YEN in forex) as a hint\ntoward a reversal.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133912281457,"sku":"V31C08_601GARN","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_8fb6514c-788f-4803-ad5a-a56acaa677b5.jpg?v=1739656756"},{"product_id":"stcov313reme","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:12 (32-35): Repeated Median Velocity Strategy, Part 2 by Dennis Meyers, PhD","description":"Repeated Median Velocity Strategy, Part 2 by Dennis Meyers, PhD\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAll Aboard The Trend!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere in the second part of this article, youll identify optimal\nparameters and find out how the system performed.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLast month in part 1, I described the repeated median\nvelocity (RMV) strategy and how it can be used to place\nbuy \u0026amp; sell orders as well as how to test this strategy.\nHere in part 2, I will discuss how to find the optimized system\nparameters so you can increase your overall trading profits.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFinding the system parameters\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn the RMV strategy, there are three strategy parameters to\nfind: N, vup, and vdn. For the test data, I ran the TradeStation optimization engine on the Russell 2000 index emini futures\n(TF) one-minute price bars from March 30, 2011 to May 3,\n2013 with the following optimization ranges for the repeated\nmedian strategy inputs:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e* N from 20 to 70 in steps of 10\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e* vup from 0.5 to 10 steps of 0.5\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e* vdn from 0.5 to 10 in steps of 0.5.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI created 105 30-day in-sample periods each followed by a\nseven-day out-of-sample period for the in-sample\/out-of-sample\nperiods (see sidebar Walk-Forward Out-Of-Sample Performance\nSummary at http:\/\/www.traders.com\/files\/MeyersSB.html). This will produce 2,400 different input combinations\nor cases of the strategy input parameters for each of the 105\nin-sample\/out-of-sample files for the two years of one-minute\nbar TF data.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat I am trying to do is statistically identify the best performance\nmetric (which I call a filter) or combination of best\nperformance metrics that I can apply to the in-sample section\nthat will give me strategy inputs that will produce, on average,\nvalid profits in the out-of-sample section, or future data.\nWhen I run an optimization over many combinations of\ninputs in TradeStation, it creates an output page with each\nstrategy input combination as its rows, and, as its columns,\nvarious trading performance measures such as profit factor,\ntotal net profits, and so on.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA simple filter would be to choose the strategy input optimization\nrow in the in-sample section that had the highest net\nprofit, or choose a row that had the best profit factor with its\nassociated strategy inputs. Unfortunately, this type of simple\nmetric performance filter has been found to rarely produce\ngood out-of-sample results. Some of the more complicated\nmetric filters have been found to produce good out-of-sample\nresults, as they minimize spurious price movement biases.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133913985393,"sku":"V31C12_665MEYE","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_dcccb4fa-d7bf-408d-ba7b-2d9dc60a20f2.jpg?v=1739656876"},{"product_id":"stcov316tras","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:10 (65-66): Trading As A Business by Jerry Cartwright","description":"Trading As A Business by Jerry Cartwright\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGet a different perspective by following these six principles.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eVery few traders treat trading like the serious business it is. Most approach it like a\nhobby. While trading is a lot of fun, its still a business, and if you dont frame it \nthat is, approach it with the attitude that its a business you will not do well in the\nlong run. Heres a different twist to help you see your trading in a different light.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e1. Think of it this way: As a trader, you have a trading company. It just so happens\nthat you are the head trader. As with any other job, you should have a job description\n(that is, your trading plan). You should know exactly what your daily duties are as the\nhead trader. You should have your daily quota or trading goal already set, just as with\nother businesses. And you should have rules and guidelines for your business so you\nknow how to handle any situation that comes your way during the trading day.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e2. You have shareholders they are your spouse, your kids, your business partner,\nand so on. They are expecting a positive return on their investment. Yes, they too have invested time and money\nin your business, and as the\nCEO of your trading company,\nyou have a fiduciary\nresponsibility to trade according\nto company policy and to\nturn a profit. All businesses\nare expected to turn a profit,\nand your trading company is\nno different.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133914018161,"sku":"V31C10_644CART","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_b9cd3d55-da4d-4a7b-81c3-87b590fc541d.jpg?v=1739656879"},{"product_id":"stcov313lucy","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:13 (38-40): Lunar Cycles And Stock Market Volatility by Ron McEwan","description":"Lunar Cycles And Stock Market Volatility by Ron McEwan\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNew Moon Mania\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHave you ever objectively analyzed the data of lunar cycles and its relationship with the\nfinancial markets? Here is one method that could bring some value to your trading.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf you were to do a\nweb search for lunar\ncycles finance,\nyou would get approximately\n4.65 million hits. You can\nsee that a number of people\nhave thought about this topic\nenough to tweet, blog, or write\na paper about it. Yet how\nmany of you have plugged\nthis data into a spreadsheet\nor programmed the function\ninto charting software to find\nout whether this is the holy\ngrail of trading or just an old\nwives tale? Maybe you were\nonce bold enough to mention\nto your trading desk manager\nthat its a new moon, so we\nshould short the SPOOZ!\nYou may be at the unemployment\noffice even now.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBut wait, it works!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThere seems to be a great deal\nof interest in this topic but\nnot that much conversation\nabout it around the trading\ndesk. Some of you may have\ntried this and sorted through\nnumerous equity, foreign exchange,\nand even commodities\ndata series. As hard as you\ntried, it just did not play out.\nSometimes the charts looked\nalmost prescient, then poof!\nthe nicely fitted cycle just\nevaporated.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIs there something to this\nthat some basic instinct is\ntelling us is valid? It should\neither work or be dismissed\nas a useless trading tool.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen properly used, it is a\nvaluable trading tool. What if\nwe are just not applying this in\nan appropriate manner? What\nif its us? Essayist Ronald\nWright mentioned in one of\nhis lecture series that we\nare trying to run 21st-century\nsoftware on 50,000-year-old\nhardware. I wanted to see if\nthis relationship were functioning on a more\nbasic emotional\npart of our hardware.\nMaybe it is\nsomething more\nprimitive.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133916049777,"sku":"V31C13_681MCEW","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_81601a9a-d5d0-4b93-95a7-bc4658cc1c2b.jpg?v=1739657051"},{"product_id":"stcov314inpi","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:6 (42–47): Interview: Pinning Trades With Huzefa Hamid by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan","description":"Pinning Trades With Huzefa Hamid by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePrice Has Plenty To Say\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePinning Trades\nWith Huzefa Hamid\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHuzefa Hamid began trading in 2000 with UK \u0026amp; US equities and equity options.\nHe gravitated toward technical trading, building his own trading rules\nand systems. In 2012, Huzefa was appointed senior analyst at DailyForex.com.\nHis published articles present technical trading strategies and market analysis.\nBesides trading, Huzefa enjoys mentoring traders of all levels, communicating\nhis ideas, and developing a shared learning environment. As TheForexRooms\noriginal founder and a dedicated administrator, he is interested in providing\nthe best possible user experience for members to help them develop successful\ntrading careers.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eStocks \u0026amp; Commodities Editor Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan spoke with Huzefa\nHamid on April 11, 2013, via Skype.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHuzefa, tell us a little bit about\nyourself and how you got interested\nin the financial markets.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI was 16 years old, in high school,\nliving in England, and I had just got my\nfirst Internet connection. It was an AOL\ndial-up connection. Every day when I\nwould connect to the Internet, one of the\nwelcome pages showed the stocks that\nmoved the most that day on the London\nStock Exchange. I would watch the prices\ngo up and down. It was just raw numbers\nat the time. There were companies such\nas Marks \u0026amp; Spencer on the British exchange,\nand I thought, Wow, all I have\nto do is buy this in the morning and sell\nit in the evening and I wouldve made\na lot of money. It was a simplistic and\nnaive view of how the markets operated,\nbut that is what initially got me interested\nin the markets.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAfter that I started to pay attention to the\nmarkets in the newspapers and started reading\nthe financial pages. We have a fabulous\nweekly journal called Investors Chronicle\nin the UK and I would purchase that. With\nonly my savings from the first few parttime\njobs I had while I was at school, I\nopened my first brokerage account. One\nof my first trades was Manchester United.\nMy trading started because of a personal\ninterest in the equity markets. Back then, in the 90s, the markets were really\nbooming, and the brokers in the industry\nbecame deregulated.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWere you working for a trading\nfirm?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNo, I wasnt with a trading firm. I\nstudied business at university and I\nwas working for, initially, Deloitte,\nand then a few other financial services\nfirms. I was in pensions and actuarialrelated\nroles, and it didnt have anything\nto do with the financial markets. It was\ncompletely divorced from trading. My\ntrading has always been a personal\ninterest.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133919097201,"sku":"V31C06_565INTE","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ec2866ef-88bb-4ba6-9325-40a6ef9da8ef.jpg?v=1739657266"},{"product_id":"stcov31852le","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:8 (8-9, 52): Letters To S\u0026C by Technical Analysis Inc.","description":"Letters To S\u0026amp;C by Technical Analysis Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGAPO RANGE INDEX\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEditor,\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI recently came across\nthe Gopalakrishnan range\nindex (Gopalakrishnan\nRange Index, Stocks\n\u0026amp; Commodities, January\n2001). Do you have this indicator\nfor Microsoft Excel? I would be very\nhappy if I could implement it in an Excel\nspreadsheet.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAntonio\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe article included a sidebar on how to\nimplement the indicator in Excel (Calculating\nGAPO With Excel). Readers\ncan access the article and sidebar in\nthe article archive at our website, www.traders.com.\nEditor\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCODE FOR SWING TRADING STRATEGY\nEditor,\nCongratulations to Sylvain\nVervoort on his wellwritten\narticles (Indicator\nRules For Swing Trading\nStrategies, parts 1 \u0026amp; 2,\nMay and June 2013) that do a good job\nof explaining the rules for swing trading.\nIve been working on an objective system\nfor futures trading myself. The rules have\nbeen working very well. I would like to\nexpand this to swing trading equities, so I\nam intrigued about what Vervoort has to\noffer. Will he be offering the indicators\nfor the TOS (thinkorswim) platform?\nI look forward to learning more about\nhis system.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMark\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAuthor Sylvain Vervoort replies:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCode for several charting platforms\nbased on my swing trading strategy\nhas been published in the Traders Tips\nsection of the June 2013 issue of S\u0026amp;C,\navailable at the S\u0026amp;C website at www.traders.com in the Traders Tips area. If\nTOS is not represented there, you might\ntry contacting thinkorswim regarding\npossibly getting code to use for the\nstrategy.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133919129969,"sku":"V31C08_593LETT","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ce3d3da8-8873-4040-b9e7-dccc210ac0cf.jpg?v=1739657268"},{"product_id":"stcov313qaby1","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:4 (33): Q\u0026A by Don Bright","description":"Q\u0026amp;A by Don Bright\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eANALYST REPORTS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI am part of a small group of traders and\ninvestors, most of us pretty new to the\nbusiness. We spend a lot of time doing\nresearch, checking charts, fundamentals,\ntechnicals, and all the rest. A newcomer\nto our group is telling us we should really\njust focus on analyst reports, because\nits easier to rely on these experts.\nWhat do you and your team of traders\nrely on?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eJeric\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLets go through the list, and then Ill\nanswer your question regarding analysts\ndirectly. First, we are big fans of doing\nresearch ourselves. Of course, we have\nteams who share in the work, but when\nit comes to the individual trader, especially\none with fewer than five years\nsolid experience, doing it yourself is\nalmost a must.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFundamentals are very important,\nespecially for longer-term positions. We\nfocus on factors like price to book value\ninitially. The book value (BV) is basically\nthe value of the company based on assets\nminus liabilities and can be thought of\nas similar to the BV of your car. You\nwouldnt want to pay $10,000 for a car\nwith a book value of $5,000, right? Sort\nof similar with stock valuations.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133920932209,"sku":"V31C04_527QA","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_feea2dbf-b254-4f56-8006-39dd00b64ede.jpg?v=1739657377"},{"product_id":"stcov314prre3","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:8 (48-50): Product Review: ValueCharts by Barbara Star, PhD","description":"Product Review: ValueCharts by Barbara Star, PhD\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMICROQUANT\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e3737 Glenwood Ave., Suite 100,\nRaleigh, NC 27612\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePhone: 919 827-0009\nInternet: www.valuecharts.com\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eProduct: Indicators that assess price\nvaluation in any time frame\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSystem requirements: NinjaTrader,\nTradeStation, MultiCharts, eSignal,\nTD Ameritrades thinkorswim, or\nBloomberg platforms\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePrice: Small, medium, and large\nindicator bundles ($499\/$999\/$1,999)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe search for fair value embraces\nthe notion of reasonable pricing\nbetween buyer and seller. But traders\noften want better than fair pricing\nwhen they buy or sell. ValueCharts offers\nindicators based on algorithms that help\ndetermine price valuation. This enables\ntraders to assess the fair value of a stock,\ncommodity, or currency prior to entry\nor exit and to identify whether price is\novervalued or undervalued. It brings\nanother dimension to trading that I think\nof as value trading.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhere are the bargains?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLike value investors, such as Warren\nBuffett, many value traders are bargain\nhunters. They look for tradable symbols\nthat are underpriced in relation to their\nworth. But, unlike value investing methods,\nValueCharts does not use subjective\ncriteria from rating services or fundamental\ndata to determine under- and overvaluations.\nInstead, ValueCharts establishes\nits valuations by applying proprietary\nalgorithms to historical transactional\nprice activity. These algorithms analyze\nthe price activity over various lookback\nperiods and create a floating value axis.\nUsing a floating value point rather than\na fixed one allows for valuations that\nadapt to changing market conditions in\nreal time.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe indicators in ValueCharts incorporate\ndynamic volatility units that expand\nand contract with price. They detect\nstatistically significant areas from which\nprice leaves a fair value range and enters\na zone that represents a better buying or\nselling opportunity. Plus, they do this in\nany time frame.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTogether, historical transactional price\nactivity and dynamic volatility units\ncombine to offer traders defined fair value\nzones along with the degree to which\nprice is outside of the fair value range.\nAccording to Mark Helweg, president of\nMicroQuant and creator of ValueCharts,\nthis product offers an objective method\nfor determining the fair price of a trade,\nmuch like the Kelley Blue Book provides\nan objective basis for determining the fair\nprice of a car.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133920964977,"sku":"V31C08_603PRVA","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_25c2a432-448e-4583-b03a-5736c215ed03.jpg?v=1739657379"},{"product_id":"stcov315qaby","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:2 (56): Q\u0026A by Don Bright","description":"Q\u0026amp;A by Don Bright\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHIGH-FREQUENCY TRADES\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eRecently, the Stocks \u0026amp; Commodities\nOpening Position referred to the\ndomination of the markets by highfrequency\ntrades (HFTs) (S\u0026amp;C, July\n2012). I have heard that many times and\nmany places, but I have never heard any\nactual statistics on the subject. I realize\nit is in the HFTs interest to remain out\nof sight, hidden in dark pools and other\nnot easily defined spooky places. Any\nexamples of HFT trading seem to suggest\nthey trade large volumes of equities,\nfutures, options, and the like for small\namounts of price movement maybe\ntwo-tenths of a cent. Liquidity is always\nnecessary, as is exchange help for volume.\nLarge volume with large bid\/ask\nranges are obvious price movers. How\ndo large volumes of small spreads have\nmuch effect on pricing? Ive never been\nable to understand that. Thank you.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eRobert B. Millar\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFirst off, let me say that you can see the\nvolume of HFT trades on most datafeeds.\nIf you set your price ticker or last-sale\nprice to four decimal places, youll\nsee hundreds or thousands of orders\ngo through between the whole-penny\nnumbers. And if you buy at $25.001\nand sell at $25.009, then youve made\neight-tenths of a penny maybe a million\ntimes. Nice money. Since these firms\npay nearly nothing to clear these trades,\nthey do well.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBright Trader Dennis Dick has written\nextensively on this subject: Imagine\nbeing in a traffic jam. There are always\ncars trying to speed past you in the fast\nlane, trying to merge in at the last second,\nskipping ahead of the line. This slows\ndown the line for everyone else. This is\nwhat high-frequency traders specialize\nin, jumping the order queue. Except\ninstead of cutting in front of you once,\nthey do it again and again. The highfrequency\ntrader is always at the front of\nthe line, which means the retail investor\nis always at the back.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133922734449,"sku":"V31C02_492QA","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_7d352a8d-847b-4f92-984a-de2dcae4ec88.jpg?v=1739657494"},{"product_id":"stcov312brpo","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:1 (20-30): The British Pound Cubed, Redux by Dennis Meyers","description":"Using Least-Squares\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe British Pound Cubed, Redux by Dennis Meyers\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTrading systems involve several components to\nmake sure they perform as well as you would\nlike them to. Heres how you can apply these\ncomponents using the least-squares cubic system.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eYears ago, in a Stocks \u0026amp; Commodities article\ntitled The British Pound, Cubed, I examined\ntrading the British pound (BP) using a least-squares\ncubic polynomial to serve as a better proxy for the\nBP market trend. The cubic polynomial should\nrespond faster to changes in the underlying trend\nand model the trend changes more accurately than\nthe straight-line version. In that article, I used walkforward\noptimization with an in-sample period of\nfive years of daily prices and an out-of-sample (OOS)\nperiod of one year. I examined these in-sample and\nOOS periods:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn-Sample Period Out-Of-Sample Period\n1\/1\/89 to 12\/31\/93 1\/1\/94 to 12\/31\/94\n1\/1\/90 to 12\/31\/94 1\/1\/95 to 12\/31\/95\n1\/1\/91 to 12\/31\/95 1\/1\/96 to 12\/31\/96\n1\/1\/92 to 12\/31\/96 1\/1\/97 to 12\/31\/97\n1\/1\/93 to 12\/31\/97 1\/1\/98 to 12\/31\/98\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eComputers were not as fast or powerful as they are\ntoday. In addition, the walk-forward software then was nowhere as sophisticated as it is now. Given todays\ntechnology, I can bring the British pound cubed\nstrategy up to date and use shorter in-sample and\nOOS periods so changing relationships in economic\ndata and trading patterns in the currency world can\nbe quickly mirrored in the in-sample data.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI will examine an in-sample period of one year of\nBP daily prices followed by an OOS period of three\nmonths of daily BP prices. Each walk-forward period\nwill advance three months and I will examine 82 walkforward\nin-sample and OOS periods from January\n1, 1991, to June 30, 2012. In Figure 1, you see the\n82 in-sample and OOS windows, the cubic strategy\ninputs, and the quarterly OOS profit\/loss results using\nthe performance metric filter I will describe.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe British pound (BP) is a major currency traded\n24 hours per day, and most of the worlds largest banks\nmake a two-sided market in the BP and its associated\nderivatives. Small traders, however, are constrained\nto trade the BP futures on the Chicago Mercantile\nExchange (CME). While the CME BP futures trading\nvolume is small compared to total worldwide bank\nand institutional trading volume, arbitrage keeps the\nfuture prices in line with the bigger markets.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133924667761,"sku":"V31C01_463MEYER","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_e05eafc3-e06b-498a-9059-4b4b7cb08d40.jpg?v=1739657583"},{"product_id":"stcov311inru","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:5 (14-20): Indicator Rules For Swing Trading Strategies, Part 1 by Sylvain Vervoort","description":"Indicator Rules For Swing Trading Strategies, Part 1 by Sylvain Vervoort\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne Step At A Time\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn todays volatile markets, making money consistently\nis a challenge. You need a good strategy with\nreliable trading rules. This seven-part series will\ndiscuss such a strategy and its trading rules. In this,\nthe first part, an overview is presented.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eToo many people believe that if they could\njust get their hands on some secret trading\nrules, making money in the stock market will\nbe easy. You cant blame them: They want to be like\nthat trader who effortlessly made more than 100 pips a\nday using a fully automated forex trading system. On\nthe other extreme, there are people who say that if you\nwant to be a successful trader, you have to spend long\nhours studying and analyzing the markets.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhich side should\nyou be on?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf you want to be successful\nin anything, you need to\nwork hard. But your time\nand effort should be well\nspent. For example, if you\nspend your time studying\nfundamentals, it will likely\nmake you money in the long\nterm, in a sustained up or\ndown market. But in volatile\nmarkets, you may not make\nmoney consistently. This\nmay tempt you to turn to an\nautomated trading system,\nbut think about this: Would\nyou sell a system that consistently\ngenerated, say, $5,000\nprofit each month?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBefore you can make any money, you need a trading\nstrategy with reliable trading rules that has been\nshown to make money in backward and forward testing\nusing historical data. To do that, you need to learn\nthe basics that is, technical analysis, money \u0026amp; risk\nmanagement, and trading knowledge and you need\nto gain experience.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI am going to put you on the right track with my\nindicator rules for a swing trading strategy (IRSTS). It\nwill take a series of articles to demonstrate and explain\nthe strategy. I will also introduce some new indicators\nthat I use in my trading. Lets start with an overview\nof the IRSTS strategy.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133926502769,"sku":"V31C05_542VERV","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ce554997-0ac0-4bd7-8b18-9fc9e7a64bda.jpg?v=1739657710"},{"product_id":"stcov315trti","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:5 (50-56): Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"Traders Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor this months Traders Tips, the focus\nis Giorgos Siligardos article in this issue,\nHead \u0026amp; Shoulders, Algorithmically (Part 2).\nHere we present the May 2013 Traders Tips\ncode with possible implementations in various\nsoftware.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCode for both MetaStock and AmiBroker\nare already provided in Siligardos article.\nSubscribers will find that code at the Subscriber Area of\nour website, www.Traders.com. (Click on Article Code\nfrom our homepage.) Presented here is an overview of\npossible implementations for other software.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTraders Tips code is provided to help the reader implement\na selected technique from an article in this issue.\nThe entries are contributed by various software developers\nor programmers for software that is capable of customization.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eReaders will find the May 2013 Traders Tips code at\nour website, Traders.com, in the Traders Tips area. Here,\nyou can read some discussion of the techniques implementation\nby the Traders Tips contributors as well as\nsome example charts.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo locate Traders Tips at our website, click on the link\nfrom our home page, or use our sites search engine.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133926535537,"sku":"V31C05_547TIPS","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_0ae6a5e9-8a49-405d-911a-9773e44629fe.jpg?v=1739657712"},{"product_id":"stcov318leto4","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:6 (8–9): Letters To S\u0026C by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"Letters To S\u0026amp;C by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHEAD \u0026amp; SHOULDERS REVISITED\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEditor,\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn the May 2013 Letters\nTo S\u0026amp;C, reader\nGeorge Jones brings up\nsome identification issues\nregarding Giorgos\nSiligardos April 2013\narticle (Head \u0026amp; Shoulders, Algorithmically,\nPart 1). The question that was\nconsidered was: Can we call a pattern a\nhead \u0026amp; shoulders if the neckline slopes\ndifferently or the volume trends differently\nthan is described in historical texts\n(such as the one mentioned in the letter,\nTechnical Analysis Of Stock Trends by\nRobert Edwards \u0026amp; John Magee)?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eJones makes an interesting point that\nit is important to consider the work of\nothers. Siligardos, in his reply, is also\ncorrect regarding neckline slope and\nvolume trend as they relate to trading,\nbut they can also be important to identification.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eKnowing that todays markets are\ndifferent from those when Edwards\n\u0026amp; Magee lived, I researched the\nperformance of the head \u0026amp; shoulders\npattern and tested the neckline slope,\nvolume trend, and other attributes,\nand published the results in my 2005\nbook, Encyclopedia Of Chart Patterns,\nSecond Edition. I used the historical\nrecord to build a foundation, and then let\nthe test results describe which variation\nworked best.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor the head \u0026amp; shoulders top, I found\n814 patterns in bull and bear markets.\nPatterns with downsloping necklines\nresulted in the worst performance\n(horizontal and upsloping were better,\nrespectively). Patterns with a rising volume\ntrend also outperformed those with a falling trend. The same results occurred\nin both bull and bear markets.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA glance at the Edwards \u0026amp; Magee\nbook shows numerous charts of head \u0026amp;\nshoulders tops with upsloping necklines,\nand they describe the volume pattern\nas being sometimes highest on the left\nshoulder, sometimes equal to the head,\nand sometimes the head has a higher\nvolume.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMy conclusion is this: If it looks like\na duck and quacks like a duck even\nif it has a weird neckline or leaves behind\na volume of droppings its still\na duck.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTom Bulkowski","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133926568305,"sku":"V31C06_557LETT","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_094dc33a-e7d5-47ad-aead-4bfcb6f8180e.jpg?v=1739657714"},{"product_id":"stcov312fufo1","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:7 (25): Futures For You by Carley Garner","description":"Futures For You by Carley Garner\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDEPTH OF MARKET\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eShould all traders be placing futures\norders through a DOM panel? What\nare the advantages and disadvantages\nof doing so?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe DOM (depth of market) panel is\na platform feature that enables traders to\nview the trading book of a particular\nfutures market while providing quick\nand efficient order-entry capabilities.\nThe trading book is purely the collective\nworking limit orders of other market\nparticipants at various prices surrounding\nthe current market price. Note that\nstop orders are not included, and market\norders are executed immediately so they\nnever become part of the book.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe DOM panel has become increasingly\npopular among daytraders because\nof the belief that it offers users an edge\nover other market participants due to\nthe visibility of others working limit\norders. Nonetheless, I argue that since\nnearly every trader has access to DOM\ntrading capabilities these days, there really\nisnt an edge at all. Moreover, savvy\ntraders executing large trading size have\ndeveloped methods to disguise the true\nsize of their orders through the use of\niceberg orders (discussed in my June\n2013 Futures For You column).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePerhaps the true advantage of using\na DOM panel is the ease and quickness\nat which traders can execute orders. Although\neach platform will have slightly\ndifferent logistics and designs, nearly\nall of them offer one-click order entry;\ndrag \u0026amp; drop order modification; a panic\nbutton that exits all positions and cancels\nany working orders; and strategy orders\nsuch as brackets or OCO (one cancels\nthe other) orders.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133928042865,"sku":"V31C07_578GARN","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_63ce89b2-0917-47e1-afed-aa1a9cf6c7fc.jpg?v=1739657824"},{"product_id":"stcov314exyo1","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:10 (42-43): Explore Your Options by Tom Gentile","description":"Explore Your Options by Tom Gentile\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCAN OPTIONS BE DAYTRADED?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHeres a question I get asked from time to\ntime when Im circling the globe to speak\nat events: Can options be daytraded for\nprofit? In the past, I would have answered,\nnot unless you want to give your money\naway over time. In the last year, however,\nI have changed my tune, researching and\neven trading options inside of a day. I\nnow answer with a yes, but answering\nthis question thoroughly takes more than\na one-word response.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLets get one thing straight right now:\nThere is no 100% winning system. I\nknow; I have spent over half my adult\nlife trying to find it, and I have accepted\nthat no matter whether you are a technical\nor fundamental trader, its not out\nthere. If it is, its probably illegal. Now\nthat weve got that out of the way, lets\nconsider that with any option strategy,\nthere is a directional (or nondirectional)\napproach that a trader has to make. I\nhave a three-step process. Spotting the\nopportunity is first, and its not much\ndifferent for short- or long-term trades. If\nyoure technical, a chart is a chart its\njust that short-term traders have no room\nfor distractions. If youre considering\na directional trade, what type of rulebased\nsystem will you use to trade? In\nshort-term trading or daytrading, I use a\nsystem based on a breakout of resistance\nlevels (or a breakdown from support\nlevels) with a few other indicators that I\nmix in to determine the likelihood that a\nstock will rise or fall during the day. The\nexample in Figure 1 uses Apple (AAPL)\non August 9, 2013.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAs you can see from the chart, this was\na snoozer of a Friday. Fridays are often\nsnoozers, due to the lack of government\nreports, though sometimes traders will\npush the markets one way or another\neither to get out of or to hedge positions\nahead of the weekend. Taking a short\nposition on 100 shares of AAPL for the\nbetter part of the day would have cost\nbetween $10,00045,500, depending\non the margin requirement at your brokerage.\nNevertheless, an $85 profit (the\namount the stock moved in your favor)\nfor the day isnt much when it comes to\nreturn on investment (ROI) on this trade.\nCould there have been another way to\nmake this paltry amount without putting\nup the cost?","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133928075633,"sku":"V31C10_634GENT","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_0857ed0a-3083-4cb6-9e6f-4fa72e39bb88.jpg?v=1739657827"},{"product_id":"stcov311trsm","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:10 (16-19): Trading Smiles And Frowns by Thomas Bulkowski","description":"Trading Smiles And Frowns by Thomas Bulkowski\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePatterns With Personality\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCan a technique this simple really boost trading\nprofits? Find out more.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBuy smiles and sell frowns: Its easy to remember,\nbut is it easy to trade? In this article I will\nshow you how this simple pattern-recognition\ntechnique works and how it could improve your\nbottom line.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHow it works\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFigure 1 shows an idealized trade. Price is the wavy\nblack line. In any trade, one price represents the\nperfect entry. Which of the labels A, B, or C\nrepresents the best buy price? The correct choice\nis B. Price bottoms at B, and forms the lowest price\non the chart.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePoints A and C are at the same price, as denoted by\nthe horizontal dashed line. If you buy at point A, price\nis still heading down toward the perfect entry price.\nThis is the entry that novices often use when bottomfishing.\nThey see the stock dropping and feel that it\ncant go any lower, so they buy. The market knows\nbetter and continues to punish the stock, driving price\nlower. Within days of buying the stock, the trader who\nbought at point A is already losing money.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf the trader is lucky, price will bottom close to\ntheir buy price. If they are unlucky, price continues\nlower. Eventually, the pain of holding a stock whose\nvalue drops almost daily becomes so great that they\nfinally sell. Often, this happens about a week or two\nbefore the stock bottoms at B.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eObviously, A is a bad price to pay for the stock.\nYou dont know where the bottom is, but you do\nknow that price is dropping (just look at the trend using a moving average, or switch to a line chart if\nthat helps).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eConsider price C. Its at the same value as A.\nBut its a better entry because price is moving up\ninstead of down. You are buying the stock after the\nperfect entry (B), but at least the worry of selling for\na loss is diminished not absent, mind you, just\nlessened. Almost every day, price climbs, making\nprofits grow.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133930762609,"sku":"V31C10_629BULK","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_cb9c3f28-b0d9-4667-94b0-d121b1ffe151.jpg?v=1739657932"},{"product_id":"stcov318exri","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:13 (8-13): Expectancy Risks In Trading by Norman J. Brown","description":"Expectancy Risks In Trading by Norman J. Brown\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Kelly Criteria\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThere are always some unexpected trading profits and associated\nrisks involved with expectancy and with the use of\nthe Kelly criteria for betting. Heres a clarification of two\nimportant issues.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThere is some uncertainty in understanding trading using\nexpectancy and the Kelly criteria (the optimum bet, FO);\nthis article should clarify those two issues. To calculate expectancy (E), the equation for such is simple enough:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eExpectancy (E) = B * R (1 B) = B * (1 + R) 1\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e(See sidebar, Expectancy Glossary, for definition of terms.)\nIf the expectancy is greater than zero, it gives you an edge in\nyour trading. This makes sense because a positive expectancy\nleads to positive (enhanced profit) trading, while a zero or negative expectancy\nmeans you should\nnot be trading at all.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBasically, there are\ntwo types of trading:\nfixed-dollar trading\nusually associated\nwith casino gambling\nand fixed-fraction\n(FF) trading usually\nassociated with stock\nmarket trading. For\nexample, in roulette\ngambling, we usually\nbet a fixed-dollar\namount and repeat\nthis in an iterative,\nnoncompounding,\napproach. It turns out\nthat roulette trading\nis a losing game to\nthe gambler as E =\n‑0.0526.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn the long run, the gambler will lose his money (of course,\nthere is always the exception where the lucky gambler beats the\nhouse). Because no compounding (generally) is involved, the\ngambler loses $2 for every 38 spins of the wheel (betting $1\nper turn), resulting in a linear loss at a ‑5.26% rate, increasing\ndirectly as the number of bets made (on average).\nThus, the resulting loss of equity on average is given by:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEE = E * N * Amount bet\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe FF investing in the marketplace is different as the returns\nand losses compound at an exponential rate, given by\nthe following equity trading formula:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEquity = 1 + Profit = (1 + R * Bet)BN * (1 Bet) [(1 B) * N]\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere, the resulting equity varies at a compounded, nonlinear\nrate, with up and down surges. In the case of fixed-dollar\ngambling, the ending equity is predictable since you know\nthe values of E, N (number of trades), and the dollar amount\nbet. This is not true in FF\ntrading as the compounded\nresults eventually turn\ndown, as you will soon\nfind out.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133930795377,"sku":"V31C13_677BROW","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_78c2d892-235f-404e-9d74-d12a0c41ac99.jpg?v=1739657935"},{"product_id":"stcov313ossm","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:9 (38-43): Oscillators, Smoothed by Sylvain Vervoort","description":"Oscillators, Smoothed by Sylvain Vervoort\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Best Of Both Worlds\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn this fifth part of our article series on indicator rules for a\nswing trading strategy (IRSTS), we will introduce an oscillator\nbased on Percent B.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eYoure probably familiar with the Percent b (%b, or PB) oscillator\nthat was developed by John Bollinger its derived\nfrom the Bollinger Bands indicator. Heres how it works:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen the price touches the upper Bollinger Band, then the\noscillator hits 100. If price moves above the upper band, the oscillator\nmoves to +100. When the price touches the lower Bollinger\nBand, then the oscillator hits zero, and if price moves below the\nlower band, the oscillator moves to a negative value.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHeres how its calculated:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePercent b = (Closing price Lower band) \/\n(Upper band Lower band) * 100\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBasic calculation\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen I created my zero-lag oscillator (SVEZLRBPercB),\nwhich is based on the Percent b, I used the same basic formula\nas the Percent b. However, before applying the formula, I manipulated the input data I used.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn a July 1997 Stocks \u0026amp; Commodities article, Mel Widner\nintroduced rainbow charts, which is the technique I used to\nconvert the closing price data to a rainbow data series and\ngive some extra weight for the less-smoothed data:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003erainbow_value =\n(5 * SMA(2)[0] +\n4 * SMA(SMA(2), 2)[0] +\n3 * SMA(SMA(SMA(2), 2), 2)[0] +\n2 * SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(2), 2), 2), 2)[0] +\nSMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(2), 2), 2), 2), 2)[0] +\nSMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(2), 2), 2), 2), 2), 2)[0] +\nSMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(2), 2), 2), 2), 2), 2), 2)[0] +\nSMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(2), 2), 2), 2), 2),\n2), 2), 2)[0] +\nSMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(S\nMA(SMA(SMA(2), 2), 2), 2), 2), 2),\n2), 2), 2)[0] +\nSMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SMA(SM\nA(SMA(SMA(SMA(2), 2), 2), 2), 2),\n2), 2), 2), 2), 2)[0]) \/ 20;\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003erainbow.Set(rainbow_value);\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNext, I averaged this new rainbow data series with an\nexponential moving average (EMA) by applying a zero-lag method. The idea of smoothing data\nwith less lag and zero-lag techniques\nwas proposed by Patrick Mulloy in\nthe February 1994 issue of Stocks\n\u0026amp; Commodities and by John Ehlers\nin the March 2000 issue. The\ntechnique compensates for the lag\nin moving averages.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHeres how I created the new data\nseries ZLRB (zero-lag rainbow):\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEMA1.Set(EMA(rainbow, smooth)[0]);\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEMA2.Set(EMA(EMA1, smooth)[0]);\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ediff = EMA1[0] - EMA2[0];\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eZLRB.Set(EMA1[0] + diff);\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFinally, I calculate and plot the\nmodified Percent b formula, but only\nafter applying another smoothing\nstep using triple exponential moving\naverages (TEMA) and weighted\nmoving averages on the zero-lag\nZLRB data series:","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133937316209,"sku":"V31C09_616VERV","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_436a53e0-bba5-4124-a65b-62e3ef19de20.jpg?v=1739658296"},{"product_id":"stcov31560tr","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:3 (54-56, 60-65): Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis Inc.","description":"Traders Tips by Technical Analysis Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor this months Traders Tips, the focus is\nSlawomir Bobrowskis article in this issue,\nCamarilla Points. Here we present the\nMarch 2013 Traders Tips code with possible\nimplementations in various software.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTraders Tips code is provided to help the\nreader implement a selected technique from\nan article in this issue. The entries are contributed\nby various software developers or programmers\nfor software that is capable of customization.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eReaders will find the March 2013 Traders Tips code\nat our website, Traders.com, in the Traders Tips area.\nHere, you can read some discussion of the techniques\nimplementation by the Traders Tips contributors as well\nas some example charts.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo locate Traders Tips at our website, click on the link\nfrom our home page, or use our sites search engine.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133937348977,"sku":"V31C03_517TTIPS","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_657230d8-8093-4f53-8fdb-c21e8a7b5a76.jpg?v=1739658299"},{"product_id":"stcov312qaby1","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:6 (25): Q\u0026A by Don Bright","description":"Q\u0026amp;A by Don Bright\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTHE USE OF PIVOTS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI am trying to learn more about technical\nanalysis and trading in general.\nI am getting better, I think, but would\nlike to have a decent explanation of\npivot points. I see them on various\nwebsites, including yours, but I dont\nknow how to use them. Can you help?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTechtrdr201\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIm glad you have decided to learn\nmore about technical analysis, and glad\nthat youre reading the best magazine in\nthe field, Technical Analysis of Stocks\n\u0026amp; Commodities. Now, lets discuss\npivot points.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI post two primary factors every day to\nmy Daily Trading Info page at Stocktrading.\ncom. One is the daily fair value (FV)\nnumbers. This number, provided by my\nfriend Hank Camp (www.programtrading.\ncom), helps us in two ways. In the\npremarket, we can calculate where the\nmarket will open up or down and\nby about how much. We take the closing\nprice of the S\u0026amp;P 500 (SPX on my monitor)\nand subtract the FV number to give\nus what is called parity. Parity is where\nthe market would open if everything\nwere flat from the previous day, which\nrarely happens. We then subtract the actual\nnumber of S\u0026amp;P futures contracts. If\nthe S\u0026amp;P futures indicate that the market\nis opening down eight SPX points, then,\nbased on this information, we know that\nwe will place opening-only orders on\nthe buy side at predetermined pricing.\nIt is similar if the market is opening\nup, except we sell short, counting on a\nretracement in both instances.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe pivot points that we use are the\nsame levels used by the exchange floor\ntraders and other professional futures\ntraders. These levels tend to act as caution\nsigns or small support \u0026amp; resistance levels. These levels are presented as\nprimary pivot support levels 1,2, and 3,\nand resistance levels 1, 2, and 3. These\nlevels are calculated using the previous\ndays high, low, and close numbers.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere is an example of how they can\nbe calculated:","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133940265329,"sku":"V31C06_560BRIG","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_f8c9f151-31be-4326-abbf-d2918b7b7028.jpg?v=1739658512"},{"product_id":"stcov313inma","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:4 (34-39): Interview: Market Cycles With Donald Dony by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan","description":"Market Cycles With Donald Dony by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMoney Has No Home\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDonald W. Dony is a professional technical analyst and holds the top global\ndesignation of Master of Financial Technical Analysis from the International\nFederation of Technical Analysts (IFTA), the first in Canada to achieve this\ndesignation. Dony has been in the investment profession for more than 25 years,\nfirst as a stockbroker and then as the principal of DW Dony and Associates, a\nfinancial consulting firm. He is the editor and publisher of the Technical Speculator,\na monthly international investment newsletter, which reviews major world\nequity markets, currencies, commodities, bonds and interest rates.\nDony is often called upon to design technical analysis training programs\nand provide teaching to industry professionals on technical analysis at many\nof Canadas leading brokerage firms. He is a respected specialist in the area of\nintermarket and business cycle analysis and a frequent speaker at international\ninvestment conferences. He is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical\nAnalysts and IFTA.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eStocks \u0026amp; Commodities Editor Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan interviewed Donald\nDony on January 29, 2013.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDonald, how did you get started in\nthe markets?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMy dad was always interested\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ein the markets. He was similar to a lot\nof people of that generation. They held\nonto things, never sold. They stayed\nwith a company, thick or thin. That got\nme interested.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn the 1980s, it was a difficult time\nto find a job and I had taken the Canadian\nSecurities Institute course, mainly\nbecause I didnt know what I wanted\nto do. I passed the course. I didnt get\nhired right then, but I continued taking\nmore and more courses and advancing\nmy education.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEventually, I did get hired and I stayed\nwith one of the major banks until the\nearly 1990s. I recognized I wanted to be\nmore of an analyst than a stock salesman.\nSo I took more courses and finished my\nmasters degree in financial technical\nanalysis (MFTA). I finished that in 2004,\nI think, and put my shingle out, and now,\nI send research all around the world.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133941838193,"sku":"V31C04_528INT","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_d34c6fd1-32e9-4206-b7a3-a3b662006163.jpg?v=1739658632"},{"product_id":"stcov318leto5","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:10 (8–9): Letters To S\u0026C by Technical Analysis Inc.","description":"Letters To S\u0026amp;C by Technical Analysis Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBACK TO BASICS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEditor,\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhats the newest craze in commodity\ntrading? Going back to basics, as Ronald\nStuart requested in his letter to S\u0026amp;C in\nyour August 2013 issue.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI have been teaching the basics of\ntrading for more than 10 years. I am now\nsemi-retired from trading, but when I\nstarted trading in 1984, I read Commodity\nPerspective magazine. Each day, I filled\nin charts by hand. Each day, the tally\nsheet would come in the mail and you\nhad three days to correct any mistakes.\nThose who were traders did better, as\neach trade had to be written down and\nchecked against the brokers sheet that\nwas mailed. There were only three data\nsuppliers then. But my old Epson 286\nwith a math coprocessor was great, as\nwas my CQG data via satellite on a\nmonochrome screen. All orders had to\nbe called in via phone. The library had\nonly two dozen books on its shelves\nabout trading, and most were historical\ncharts. I sent away for free booklets from\nbrokers that advertised in the Wall Street\nJournal on how to place an order \nyes, we had to place orders by phone in\na specific wording order.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI received several booklets that I still\nkeep next to my desk today, from Lind-\nWaldock, the CME, CBOT, and works\nby Jake Bernstein, Larry Williams, plus\na few inept how-to books on technical\nanalysis. Then I came across George\nLane and stochastics, and next J. Welles\nWilders book. From then on, I was a\ntiger, making up to 50 trades a day.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI now teach. Ive taken dozens of\nclasses over the years several from\nGeorge Lane himself. I am a bit partial\nsince he developed stochastics while at\nthe University of Michigan and I am a Michigander. He used a Univac in\n195557 that took up a room as big as\nmy living room today. Today, our cell\nphones have more computing power\nthan that Univac did. From many of\nthe classes and seminars that I have\ntaken, it seems that no one really knows\nhow to use stochastics. Calculating it\nby hand, as well as making a jig to\ndo backtesting, was work. A jig is a\ntemplate; after taping several years of\nCommodity Perspective together on the\nwall, I would trace back the algorithm\nI was backtesting via the template and\nsee if my calculations worked. Today,\npeople think the computer will do it all\nfor you.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133941870961,"sku":"V31C10_627LETT","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_3278f48c-8efa-4ed9-960d-ee672e6d3fe4.jpg?v=1739658635"},{"product_id":"stcov316qaby","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:9 (62): Q\u0026A by Don Bright","description":"Q\u0026amp;A by Don Bright\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSEASONALITY\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI was chatting with a group of traders the day while visiting friends in Chicago. We discussed all sorts of things, and after a couple of beers, the conversations focused on a couple of distinct topics. The first one was something I have not heard of before -- seasonality. At first I assumed that they were perhaps referring to the Christmas season for retail stocks, or even the travel season for the leisure industries like hotels and airlines. After a few minutes I was told that seasonality occurs every month in the markets, and many times, twice a month. Can you help me understand what this phenomenon is? Anything you can share will be appreciated. -- Jacko6719","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133944000881,"sku":"V31C09_622BRIG","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_253233db-c7bd-4cc4-a191-448ffe3510b5.jpg?v=1739658736"},{"product_id":"stcov316bofo4","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:8 (65): Books For Traders by Technical Analysis Inc.","description":"Books For Traders by Technical Analysis Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eExtraordinary Popular Delusions And\nThe Madness Of Crowds, financial edition\n(128 pages, $14.68\nsoftcover, 2013, 978-\n0 - 8 57-19 317- 9 ) by\nCharles Mackay, published\nby Harriman\nHouse.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFirst published\nin 1841, this classic\nis often cited as the\nbest book ever written\nabout market psychology.\nThis Harriman House edition includes\nCharles Mackays account of the three infamous\nfinancial manias John Laws Mississipi\nScheme, the South Sea Bubble, and\nTulipomania. These historic episodes show\nthat greed and fear have always been the\ndriving forces of financial markets. With the\nbenefit of hindsight, Mackay was able to\nrecord of a passage of events that was inevitably\nheading for disaster, resulting in a\nwork that is both a thriller and a historical\ndocument.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHow To Make Money In\nStocks: Getting Started\n(279 pages, $18\nsoftcover, 2013, ISBN\n978-0-071-81011-1) by\nMatthew Galgani, published\nby McGraw-Hill\nEducation.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis book\nis the latest addition to\nthe How To Make Money\nIn Stocks series begun 25 years ago\nby William J. ONeil, founder of Investors\nBusiness Daily (IBD) and developer of the\nwell-known CAN SLIM method of investing.\nMatthew Galgani is the co-host of the IBD\nweekly radio show and editor of the IBDextra!\nnewsletter. Galganis book provides an\neasy-to-follow plan designed for busy people\nwith a limited amount of time to spend\non investing. In his book, Galgani presents\nbuying \u0026amp; selling checklists; some simple\nweekend and daily routines for investors;\nchart-reading tips; what to consider before\nyou buy a stock; and action steps to get\nstarted quickly.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133953044849,"sku":"V31C08_608BOOK","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_e243fe18-0000-4c4e-afd9-e1cd583bbc3c.jpg?v=1739658831"},{"product_id":"stcov314prre","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:3 (46-51): Product review: Updata (Part 2) by Dennis Peterson","description":"Product review: Updata (Part 2) by Dennis Peterson\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eUPDATA\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e77 Water Street, 8th floor\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNew York, NY 10005\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePhone: 646 400-5893\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEmail: sales@updataTA.com\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eInternet: http:\/\/www.updatata.com,\nhttp:\/\/www.updata.co.uk\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eProduct: Technical analysis platform\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eRequirements: Windows XP\/Vista\/7 or\n8 (32 or 64 bit); dual core processor+;\n4GB RAM+; 2GB hard disk space\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePrice: Updata Pro $395\/month (minimum\none year); Updata Trader Pro\n$499\/year; Updata Analytics (requires\nBloomberg feed) $100\/month\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn part 1 of this two-part series, I\ncovered the basics of Updata.\nThis time, I will cover features,\nsome of which are difficult to find\nanywhere else. As in the first part of\nthe review, all chart data was provided\nthrough an eSignal datafeed, although\nUpdata is compatible with more than 20\ndifferent datafeeds, including Thomson\nReuters.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCharting\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA poorly understood area by many\nanalysts\/traders is point \u0026amp; figure (P\u0026amp;F)\ncharting. P\u0026amp;F ignores time and is only\nconcerned about price movement. Typically,\nit takes the form of columns of Xs\nand Os. Each X or O is called a box.\nA box represents a price change. How\nmuch change is up to the user, but the\nimportant aspect of box size is that any\nprice movement less than the box size\ndoes not create a new box. If you had\na box size of $1.00 and prices were at\n$100 and went to $100.99, it would not\ncreate a new box. If prices went to $101,\nyou would have an additional box, and\nin this case it would be an X, not an O,\nsince prices went up.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133963497841,"sku":"V31C03_515PRUPDA","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_329841b9-220b-4225-993c-03c606879ce2.jpg?v=1739659041"},{"product_id":"stcov312eamo","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:6 (20–24): Early Morning Activity by Anthony Trongone","description":"Early Morning Activity by Anthony Trongone\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLet The Trades Begin\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEarly Morning Activity\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCan an analysis of early morning trading activity\noffer you a forecasting advantage in the opening\nhour of the equities market? Find out here.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen trading the spiders (SPDR S\u0026amp;P 500 ETF\nTrust) in the opening hour of the regular\ntrading session (9:3010:30 am ET), many\ndaytraders overlook early morning trading\nvolume as a forecasting indicator. Yet\ntrading activity during the 7:308:30 am\nhour appears to have a strong impact on the\ndirection of equities.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe early hours\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI looked into this further and studied data from\nNovember 8, 2010, when the spiders (SPY) were\nat $122.37 (7:30 am) and reached a closing price of\n$156.24 (10:30 am) at the conclusion of this study\non March 31, 2013. This spectacular run of $33.87\nwas impressive but the focus of my study was on\ntrading from 9:3010:30 am. In this opening hour,\nthe summary performance of the spiders was $6.42\nin these 600 trading days. If, however, you use early\nmorning (7:308:30) trading volume as an indicator,\ncan this performance be improved?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBefore entering a trading position during the early\nmorning hour, its a good policy to contrast its pricing\nvolatility with the daily trading range (highestlowest\ndaily price) of $1.497. In comparison, its hourly average\nwas $0.786. Given this disparity, you can expect\nwide price swings in this opening hour to deliver\neither strong gains or inflict massive damage.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133965136241,"sku":"V31C06_559TRON","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_fb2ba9f8-9c83-43e3-bb60-55b48b9a0ac9.jpg?v=1739659155"},{"product_id":"stcov315prre2","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:7 (50–52): Product Review: Unfair Advantage by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"Product Review: Unfair Advantage by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eUnfair Advantage\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCSI Corporate Headquarters\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e200 West Palmetto Park Rd., Suite 200\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBoca Raton, FL 33432\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eInternet: www.csidata.com\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePhone: 800 274-4727,\nFax: 561 392-8663\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEmail: (sales) info@csidata.com;\n(support) support@csidata.com\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSystem requirements: Most Windows\noperating systems supported\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eProduct: Supplier of end-of-day and\nhistorical data for worldwide financial\nmarkets\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePrice: A wide variety of packages are\noffered, such as North American Futures\n($33.54\/month or $313\/year) or\nUS Stocks and Indices ($33.25\/month\nor $285\/year)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe primary objective of Unfair\nAdvantage (UA) is to allow you to\nexport end-of-day (EOD) quotes to\nthird-party software. You store the data on\nyour disk in a compressed format and then\nconvert it to a format that the third-party\nsoftware can use. The compression is so\nefficient that it lets you get by with as little\nas one gigabyte (GB) for US stocks and\nindexes, and only requires two GB for\noptions. Much of the data goes back 20\nyears and some of it 60 years. CSI (Commodity\nSystems, Inc.) prides itself in its\naccurate data, which is why companies\nsuch as Yahoo Finance! use CSI to provide\nEOD quote data to users.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eUA includes charting but it is not\nequipped with all the bells and whistles\nyou find on full-featured products.\nSeveral techniques are available to create\ncontinuous commodities contracts,\nand UA covers all of the worlds major\nmarkets. If you are looking for a costcompetitive\nand accurate EOD datafeed,\nthis is the product you want.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCommodities contracts\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf you have a brokerage account that allows\nyou to trade commodities, you can probably get quotes on a limited number\nof contracts, such as those trading on the\nCME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). If\nyou want to backtest commodities, youll\nwant to create a continuous contract.\nCommodities contracts usually have a\nlimited life because there is a delivery\ndate involved. A continuous contract\nallows you to have a price series that is\nlonger than any single contract. UA has\nseveral techniques for creating continuous\ncontracts for commodities traded on\nexchanges all over the world. The tabs\nat the top of Figure 1 such as nth nearest,\nperpetual, back-adjusted, and Gann\nare all different techniques for creating\na continuous price series.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne note about terminology: When\nUA refers to a series, it is talking about\na series of individual contracts that have\nbeen linked together to create a single\ncontinuous contract. Two terms that any\ncommodities trader needs to know are\nopen interest (OI) and volume. Open\ninterest refers to the number of contracts\ncurrently being held, and volume refers\nto the total number of contracts bought\nand sold. The differentiation is important\nbecause it can signal buyer expectations\nversus liquidity. A useful technique in\ncreating a continuous contract is to start\nusing the next contract when the OI on\nthat next contract equals the OI on the\nprevious contract. This process of going\nfrom one contract to the next is called\nrollover.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133966840177,"sku":"V31C07_586PRUA","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_98017e24-31dc-45f3-ae2c-28ff4f7b0833.jpg?v=1739659259"},{"product_id":"stcov315seun","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:2 (58-60): Seeking The Uncommon Trade by L.A. Little","description":"Seeking The Uncommon Trade by L.A. Little\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAre you looking for just another trade, or an uncommon one?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTheres always another trade, the saying goes, and its true. But should\nyou be looking for just another trade? It may be to your advantage to\ngo where others dont. Instead of looking for just another trade, its\nthe uncommon one you should be seeking. The uncommon trade is\nthe diamond in the rough. Its the trade with greater potential not only\nfrom a reward-to-risk perspective, but from a probability of success.\nThat these trades are uncommon is what makes them so sought after,\nbut how can you find them?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTrades come in two flavors\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne of the problems with trading and life\nin general is that there is an abundance of\ncomplexity. In this highly technical and\ninterconnected world where information is\ninstantly at your fingertips, it is best to just\ntune out sometimes and step back in order to\nsee the big picture. In trading, there are just\ntwo trade types: either you take a position\n(long or short) when the instrument you are\ntrading is breaking out, or you do so when it\nis retracing back to a prior breakout point.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIt sounds simplistic and it was intended\nthat way, because in my opinion far too many\ntraders and commentators make it overly\ncomplex. Here are a couple of simple charts\nfor visualization.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn Figure 1 you see an example of a bullish\nbreakout. In such a case, price pushes up to\na prior resistance area and then jumps above\nit, breaking higher. A breakout trade implies\nthat the trader buys once a breakout occurs.\nAlthough Figure 1 depicts a bullish breakout,\nbearish breakouts are essentially the same pattern\n in reverse. Whether prior resistance\nis defined as a swing point, a resistance line,\nor any other technical area, the point is that\nprice first reaches then exceeds the levels\nwhere resistance resides.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFigure 2 is an example of a retracement,\nwhich is preceded by a breakout; otherwise,\nthere would be nothing to retrace. A successful\nretracement sees prices approach the\nprior breakout area, hold, and then reverse\nto head back the other way. Like breakouts,\nretracements apply to both bullish and bearish\nsetups.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThese two trade setups and variations make\nup all trade setups. Every trade we have made\ncan be explained by these two basic trade\ntypes. It is a useful simplification and, once\nmade, allows you to focus on the question at\nhand: What makes one breakout or retracement\nsetup better than another?","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133966872945,"sku":"V31C02_494LITTL","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_0b767cb3-c779-422f-b04f-1f1e5e727d91.jpg?v=1739659262"},{"product_id":"stcov314quin","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:7 (49): Quick-Scan: Indicator Warehouse by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan","description":"Quick-Scan: Indicator Warehouse by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIndicator Warehouse\nProfitable Decisions, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e9002 Chimney Rock Rd.,\nSuite G-115\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHouston, TX 77096\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eInternet: www.indicatorwarehouse.com\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePhone: 877 646-5249\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eProduct: Add-on indicators for\nNinjaTrader\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAs the name Indicator Warehouse (IW)\nsuggests, this is a place where you can find\nseveral indicators. They are not standalone\nindicators; they are all add-ons for\nNinjaTrader, which means youll have to\nbe a NinjaTrader user to use them. Their\nflagship indicator, Diversified Trading\nSystems (DTS), includes several signal\ngenerators, all of which are proprietary.\nIf you look through the various add-ons\noffered by IW, you will see that their\nproducts tend to be visual, making it\neasy to identify patterns, overbought\/\noversold levels, support\/resistance levels,\nprice channels, and various other tools\nyou can apply to charts. One product I\nfound interesting was Trade Manager,\na risk management add-on you can use\nwith your trading system.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133968347505,"sku":"V31C07_585QSIN","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_24548d13-ce1d-4b23-bd0b-ebcce076c0ab.jpg?v=1739659376"},{"product_id":"stcov314bofo","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:3 (45): Books For Traders by Technical Analysis Inc.","description":"Books For Traders by Technical Analysis Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe following selection of book descriptions represents a sampling of recent book releases in the investing field. Books described here may be from some of the major book publishers as well as some independent book publishers. These are not critical reviews or editorial evaluations, but rather a brief look at the book marketplace to help keep readers up to date on new book offerings.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133970248049,"sku":"V31C03_514BOOK","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_178fbba7-d594-4a3b-9de0-5612376d65b3.jpg?v=1739659512"},{"product_id":"stcov314howl","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:7 (40–43): How Long Will The Trend Last? by L.A. Little","description":"How Long Will The Trend Last? by L.A. Little\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Big Question\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHow Long Will\nThe Trend Last?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAll trends begin and eventually end, but the rate at which they end is not the same\nacross all time frames. Find out how incorporating trend failure rates into your\ntrading can make you a more effective trader.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTime is the hardest element\nto integrate with technical\ntrading. After studying many\nways that others have attempted to do\nthis, I somehow felt they were lacking\nand still wanted to take it further.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn most engineering disciplines,\nyoull come across the concept of measuring\na products useful life cycle. It\nis often referred to as the mean time\nto failure (MTTF). Essentially, its\nan estimate of the average, or mean\ntime until product failure. It is a useful\nmeasure and is drawn from a representative\nsample set of the population\nunder study, whatever that may be.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMean time to failure?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSome common, everyday examples\nof objects with MTTF rates include\nyour washing machine, your microwave\noven, or the toaster sitting on\nyour countertop. All have a useful life\ncycle and in all cases, that expected\nlife cycle is estimable. They come\noff the factory floor, are purchased,\nand then serve their owner for some\nuseful period of time before breaking\nand being retired.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn my book Trend Qualification\nAnd Trading, I outlined a neoclassical\nmethodology centered on the notion\nthat not all trends are created equal.\nThis conclusion was reached after I\nsystematically studied thousands of\ntrading instruments across multiple\ntime frames in an automated fashion.\nI then examined the probability of the\ntrend continuing based on various\nattributes I observed. The most interesting\nattribute where a correlation\nwas clearly observable was related\nto volume characteristics. Volume\nconfirmation (confirmed trend) or\nnonconfirmation (suspect trend) at\nthe time of a trends transition led to\nan increased or decreased probability\nof trend continuance.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133972017521,"sku":"V31C07_583LITT","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_a694ab1f-c62c-40bd-828e-54acf1f9ea95.jpg?v=1739659633"},{"product_id":"stcov311trby","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:8 (10-14): Trading By The Numbers by Sami Khan","description":"Trading By The Numbers by Sami Khan\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBeyond Visual\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMany traders are happy to backtest their trading systems,\nbut how often do they study the statistics behind their\ntrading setups prior to implementing a strategy? Heres a\nlook at how taking this step can help determine whether its\nworth developing a trading system based on an idea.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen you make a decision, chances are you will look\nat what happened the last time to see what to expect\nthis time. For example, you would avoid traveling on\na route to work that has been congested in the past, or\nyou would avoid eating foods that you havent liked before.\nSimilarly, if you are looking to trade based on a trading system,\nyou would want to see past information about the system.\nTypically, this would be done by performing a backtest.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAre backtests the best action to take?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLets take a step back. For simplicity, say the system you\nare considering will have long-only entries, and you have a\nwell defined setup. Before performing a complete backtest of\ntrades, ask yourself, When I have seen this setup in the past,\ndid the price usually go up afterward?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNote that Im not talking about actual trades taken here \nIm talking about understanding the typical price distribution\nafter a setup has occurred.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor this long-only system to be of any interest, price must\nhave usually gone up after the setup. But what does it mean\nto say that price must have usually gone up? Fortunately,\nthese days, there are huge amounts of financial data available,\nmaking it easy to find when the setup has occurred in\nthe past. After locating an occurrence, you can look forward\nin the data and sample subsequent price action. Then you can perform a standard statistical test\nto see whether it is statistically sound\nto say that price is likely to go up after\nthe setup.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133975294321,"sku":"V31C08_594KHAN","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_4a73c561-e8e7-4338-a3bb-9a243b21cbd8.jpg?v=1739659864"},{"product_id":"stcov312buca","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:2 (24-27): Butterflying Cattle With Commodity Options by Tom Gentile","description":"Butterflying Cattle With Commodity Options by Tom Gentile\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMoo\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eButterfly the strategy, not the steak!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMy wife and I dont frequent the local steakhouse as often as I would like. Its not me, I\nlove a good cut of filet mignon; shes just not into red meat. In fact, when we do go, she\ninsists that her beef be well done so much so that the server often asks if she wants\nher steak butterflied. Butterflying a steak is a process where the chef will split the\nfilet, enabling the steak to cook through quicker. Personally, I think butterflying a steak is a disaster, but butterflying\na commodity now thats\nsomething entirely different.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLets take our filet mignon\nin its rarest form in the form\nof live cattle and look at\ncutting the meat of this risk\nsubstantially.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe butterfly strategy\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCattle futures and options are\ntraded on the Chicago Merchantile\nExchange (CME).\nTo give you an idea of the\ncontract values, look at some\nrecent trading action in the\ncattle pits (Figure 1). The\nFebruary futures contract for\nlive cattle traded at near 130\ncents per pound recently. One\ncontract of live cattle is good\nfor 40,000 pounds, according\nto the specifications. To get\nthe contract price, you simply\nmultiply the current price of\nthe contract by the contract\nsize (130 x 40,000).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe February contract on\nDecember 3, 2012, is worth\napproximately $52,000. With\novernight margins, the cost to\ncontrol the contract is obviously\nmuch less, but we need\nto remember the calculations\nin order to determine the dollar\ncost of the options.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133975359857,"sku":"V31C02_484GENT","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_1f05b438-f1b9-4957-9c9e-4f3af267d99d.jpg?v=1739659867"},{"product_id":"stcov315exyo","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:1 (53): Explore Your Options by Price Headley","description":"Explore Your Options by Price Headley\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSTRADDLES AND THE SPX\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWill the straddle work with index options\nlike SPX? Id given up on individual\nstocks and have been trading SPX options\nexclusively. Except for the price\nof the premiums, it seems to make little\ndifference in volatility if I buy the SPX\noptions in- or out-of-the-money (OTM),\nso I buy them OTM for the cheaper\npremiums. I remember reading about\nstraddles and spreads, and correct me\nif Im wrong but the behavior of options\non individual stocks seems to depend on\nwhether they are in or out of the money,\nand I thought that was the key to straddle\/\nspread strategies. Am I correct in thinking\nthese strategies wont work for index\noptions? Are there similar strategies that\ncan be employed that work to hedge risk\nand make money both ways with index\noptions like for SPX?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFirst, heres how a straddle works. Say\nXYZ shares are trading at 50 and you\nexpect the stock to be volatile, up to the\n60 area of higher or down to 40 or lower\nover the next several months. The only\nissue is you dont know which way its\ngoing to move first. The straddle purchase\nis an option strategy, which can get you\non board the start of a big move.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBy purchasing the six-month XYZ\n50 call and simultaneously buying the\nsix-month XYZ 50 put, we now have\na position that can benefit as long as\nXYZ shares are even more volatile\nthan expected. When you buy the same\nstrike price on both sides, its known as\na straddle. If the strike prices are different,\nits called a strangle. The key to\nsuccess in buying straddles is what you\npay for the call and put option relative\nto the volatility, which is implied or\nexpected to occur. There are factors to\nconsider in getting the cheapest straddles, which can offer the greatest leverage in\na potentially volatile move:","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133975458161,"sku":"V31C01_470EYO","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_43808b4e-2c4e-499e-8811-a33c891bcdc8.jpg?v=1739659872"},{"product_id":"stcov315fufo","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:2 (54): Futures For You by Carley Garner","description":"Futures For You by Carley Garner\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCME AND ITS CHANGES\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe CME has made changes to the trading\nhours of various products. What was\ntheir motivation and what is the impact\non traders and the markets?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe CME recently made two significant\nchanges to the trading hours of some of\ntheir most popular contracts. The first\nwas implemented in late May 2012 and\ngreatly expanded the number of hours that\ntraders could speculate in grain futures\nand options; the second went into effect\nin mid-November 2012 and altered the\ncutoff point between trading sessions in\nstock index futures and options.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat changes were made to CME Group\ngrain trading hours, and why?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFollowing the changes implemented in\nthe summer of 2012, CME Group grain\nfutures and options trade 21 hours per day.\nPrior to the change, the markets were available\n17 hours per day. Although 17 hours\nsounds ample, it was far less than most other\ncommodity markets and failed to provide\nmarket access during the announcement of\ncritical USDA reports, which are typically\nreleased early in the morning on various\nweekdays.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eUnder the new schedule, grain trading\nbegins on Sunday afternoon at 5 pm Central\ntime. The market then trades around the\nclock before pausing at 2 pm; trade then\nresumes at 5 pm Monday through Thursday;\nbut trading halts for the weekend at\n5 pm Central on Friday. In a nutshell, the\nmarket is closed only from 2 pm to 5 pm\nduring the week but is open during all other\ntimes of the day.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI cant speak on behalf of the CME Group,\nbut from what Ive gathered, there were\ntwo primary goals in expanding trading\nhours for grain products. First, the new\nhours created an opportunity for traders\nto immediately react to the USDA reports. Prior to the changes, traders were forced to\ndigest the news for two hours before they\nwere able to react in the marketplace. As\nyou can imagine, inability to enter or exit\na market following such an event opened\nthe door to emotions running wild; this\noften triggered panicked trades on the\nmarket open.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133975490929,"sku":"V31C02_491GARN","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_96609b04-2def-421c-9856-5bd14352fe16.jpg?v=1739659875"},{"product_id":"stcov318leto","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:1 (8): Letters To S\u0026C by Technical Analysis Inc.","description":"ADX \u0026amp; DMI\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEditor,\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI have a question for the\nauthor of Identify The\nStart Of A Trend With\nDMI from your November\n2012 issue.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHaving just recreated the worksheet\nshown in the articles sidebar beginning\non page 18 of the November 2012 issue,\nI am not clear on which columns are to\nbe graphed. Please help with this.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAs for the authors technique, it looks\nquite interesting. Has the author explored\nusing this technique intraday?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThanks, and my apologies for my lack\nof understanding.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDan Cash\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\nAuthor BC Low replies:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIm not sure what software you are using,\nbut I use MetaStock, and I simply\nadd the ADX, +DI, and -DI lines into\nthree windows, and you are ready to\nread the signals.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI do not have software that can create\nthe three lines intraday. As such, my\ntechniques tend to apply to end-of-day\ncharts. In general, intraday signals are\ntrickier, I feel.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\nEditor replies:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe sidebar on ADX merely shows how\nto calculate the ADX. It does not reflect\nor implement the system discussed by\nLow in his article.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor an example of how to implement\nBC Lows technique in Microsoft Excel\nspreadsheet software, please refer to the\nTraders Tips section of our November\n2012 issue and see Ron McAllisters contribution\non page 77 of that issue. This is\nalso available in the Traders Tips area of our website at http:\/\/www.traders.com\/\nindex.php\/sac-magazine\/departments\/\ntraders-tips\/1830-microsoft-excelnovember-\n2012 (or click on the Traders\nTips link from our homepage at Traders.\ncom and scroll down to the Microsoft\nExcel: November 2012 item, or type\nNovember 2012 in the title filter search\nbox in the Traders Tips area).","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133975523697,"sku":"V31C01_460LETTPDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_9ddf3b26-7873-4704-814f-d2f10ee38550.jpg?v=1739659877"},{"product_id":"stcov311tchp","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:5 (10-13): ‘Trendy' Chart Patterns by Thomas Bulkowski","description":"Trendy Chart Patterns by Thomas Bulkowski\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMay The Best Pattern Win\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhich chart patterns precede a strong breakout move?\nFind out here.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI never associate chart patterns with being trendy, but when\nI received an email asking me which chart patterns are\ntrendiest, I had to think twice.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat is a trendy chart pattern?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA chart pattern is trendy if price forms the first minor high\nor low well after a breakout. In other words, if price changes from moving sideways (consolidating in the chart pattern)\nto moving up or down (after the breakout), then a new trend\nhas begun. The chart pattern with the highest percentage gain\n(upward breakout) or loss (downward breakout) to the first\nminor high or low, respectively, after the breakout, becomes\nthe trendiest; it leads to the strongest trends.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo determine which pattern is the trendiest, you need only\nmeasure from the breakout of a chart pattern to the first minor\nhigh or low, sort the results, and you will have a list of the\ntrendiest chart patterns. Those chart patterns showing the\nhighest percentage runs to the first minor high or low are the\ntrendiest.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor downward breakouts, I used the same database\nand a similar technique to find the first minor low\nafter the breakout from a chart pattern. The table\nin Figure 4 shows the results for the top 10 chart\npatterns with downward breakouts. The head \u0026amp;\nshoulders top, another popular chart pattern, did\nnot make the top 10. It ranked 22 out of 35.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNotice that diamond bottoms and big W patterns\ndo not have large sample counts. Big Ws are double\nbottoms with tall sides. Instead of price continuing\nto rise, it reverses and drops below the bottom of\nthe pattern, staging a downward breakout. When\nthat happened in the 92 patterns tested, there was a\nstrong down move.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf you test using three and 10 days, it will change\nthe order of the chart patterns to some degree (for\nupward breakouts, for example, the top three remain\nthe same; for downward breakouts, only diamond\nbottoms remain first). Separating the chart patterns\ninto bull and bear markets, using other definitions\nfor minor highs or lows, or adding more samples\nwill likely change the order, too.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133976899953,"sku":"V31C05_541BULK","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_d2723f9c-070d-48fa-a7b3-feaa42b85f26.jpg?v=1739659977"},{"product_id":"stcov312miex","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:2 (28-34): Minimum Expectations Of A Trading Strategy by Wayne Mueller","description":"Minimum Expectations Of A Trading Strategy by Wayne Mueller\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFixing Your System\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIs your system performing adequately? Here is a method you\ncan use to determine minimum expected performance.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI have learned that if you are going to trade, you should\ntrade a system that you have developed using known\nparameters in which you have reasonable confidence.\nA trading system is a collection of rules and conditions by\nwhich to select, buy, and sell financial instruments. Your\ngoals, psychology, personality, and capital limits are part of\nthe mix of influences that ultimately determine the makeup\nof the strategies to be implemented. If you are thorough, perceptive, and resourceful enough, you will end up creating\na successful strategy.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe R-factor\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTypically, you will backtest your system and come up with a\ncollection of performance results before you start trading your\nsystem. One form of performance results is a set of R-multiples,\nor a distribution, from which a mean R (expectancy or expectation)\nand a standard deviation can be derived. R means risk per\ntrade. For example, if you bought 200 shares of XYZ at $100 and\nplaced a stop-loss at $95, then R = ($100 - $95) 200 = $1,000.\nBy keeping R equal to a constant dollar amount or a constant\npercentage of equity for each trade, you can keep a good handle on your risk and have an effective method to\ntrack your systems performance.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFrom these parameters, I will show how you\ncan derive a minimum performance curve and\ndetermine the maximum drawdown you can\nexpect as well as the maximum breakeven trade\nnumber and the terminal wealth relative (TWR) (the retire\npoint). From that curve and the values described, you can apply\na risk level and enhance profitability by using proportional\nbet sizing and Ed Seykotas markets money concepts (the\ndifference between current equity and starting equity).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eYou will want to know the worst-case performance of your\nstrategy, given a specified confidence level and the minimum\nlevel of performance below which you should consider the\nsystem to be broken. Here, I will propose a method that will\nhelp you make that determination.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133978571121,"sku":"V31C02_485MUEL","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_dadadbea-e79e-41da-bbad-c772aa4cfeb9.jpg?v=1739660105"},{"product_id":"stcov314niby","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:5 (46-49): NinjaTrader by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"NinjaTrader by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNINJATRADER, LLC\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e1236 Clarkson Street, Denver, CO 80218\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEmail: support@ninjatrader.com\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eInternet: www.ninjatrader.com\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFax: 801 806-2591\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePrice: $995 for lifetime license;\n$50\/month lease; free version with\nstandard features\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eProduct: Trading and analysis software\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSystem requirements: Windows XP\n(SP3 required)\/2003\/Vista\/7 or 8; minimum\nscreen resolution of 1024x768;\nminimum P4 processor or higher; 2GB\nRAM; Microsoft .NET Framework 3.5\n(preinstalled on most PCs or can be\ndownloaded)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA full-featured trading platform\nthats free: Thats the reason behind\nthe success of NinjaTrader.\nNinjaTrader (NT) was started in 2003\nwith a handful of people and now has\n40 employees. Since the program is\nfree, it attracts a lot of users, and as\na consequence, also attracts a large\nnumber of third-party product vendors.\nHow does NT make its money? It does\nso predominantly by selling the lifetime\nlicense version and monthly subscription\nlicenses. The difference between the\nlifetime version and the free one is that\nthe lifetime version lets you trade directly\nwith your broker using a NinjaTrader\ninterface. If you get a free version of the\nprogram from your broker, it is likely to\nbe missing the ATM (Advanced Trade\nManagement) feature; thus, not all free\nversions of it are the same.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat type of trader would be willing\nto pay $995 to have a brokerage interface\nbuilt into the software? He or she will\nlikely be a daytrader. Otherwise, a trader\nwho holds positions for two or more\ndays can easily place orders through a\nseparate brokerage interface.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133980701041,"sku":"V31C05_546PRNINJA","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ff1a3ecb-8b15-41b5-8923-61b179248fb7.jpg?v=1739660240"},{"product_id":"stcov314trti","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:4 (49-56): Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"Traders Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor this months Traders Tips, the focus is\nRon McEwans article in this issue, Low-\nFrequency Trading. Here we present the\nApril 2013 Traders Tips code with possible\nimplementations in various software.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSpreadsheet formulas for Microsoft Excel\nare already provided in McEwans article.\nSubscribers will find a copy of his spreadsheet\nat the Subscriber Area of our website, www.Traders.\ncom. (Click on Article Code from our homepage.)\nPresented here is an overview of possible implementations\nfor other software.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTraders Tips code is provided to help the reader implement\na selected technique from an article in this issue.\nThe entries are contributed by various software developers\nor programmers for software that is capable of customization.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eReaders will find the April 2013 Traders Tips code at\nour website, Traders.com, in the Traders Tips area. Here,\nyou can read some discussion of the techniques implementation\nby the Traders Tips contributors as well as\nsome example charts.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo locate Traders Tips at our website, click on the link\nfrom our home page, or use our sites search engine.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133980733809,"sku":"V31C04_532TIPS","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_4bf1bc80-2dd2-469c-ac87-bc9b4c1bf858.jpg?v=1739660242"},{"product_id":"stcov312exof","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:10 (20-25): An Expert Of A System by Sylvain Vervoort","description":"An Expert Of A System by Sylvain Vervoort\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eColorized Candles\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn this sixth part of a seven-part series, we look at an\nexpert trading system that color-codes candlesticks to\nsimplify entry \u0026amp; exit decisions.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen in doubt, follow the expert except that this\nexpert is a trading system that will make your buy\n\u0026amp; sell decisions easier. Keep in mind there is no\nperfect expert that will make profitable trades all\nthe time. Your best chance for a profit at the end of\nthe day is to stay in a profitable trade for as long as possible\nand avoid entering losing trades. Together with good risk \u0026amp;\nmoney management, the odds will be in your favor.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAn expert system that color-codes your candlestick chart\nwill give you the best possible indication of when to buy and\nwhen to sell. In the standard candle chart in Figure 1, a green\ncandle body indicates that the day closed with a price higher\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ethan the opening price; a red candle body means the closing\nprice was below the opening price. On this chart, its not so\neasy to see where to take action.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNow look at Figure 2. Its the same chart but color-coded by\nan expert color-coding system. With this chart, if you buy when\nthe candle color changes to green and sell or go short when it\nchanges to black, its fairly clear where you will buy and sell.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBesides having clearer indications for long or short positions,\nyou also have the advantage of the candlestick chart format\nitself. In Figure 2, a white or unfilled candle body means the\nday closed with a closing price above the opening price. A\nfilled body, either green or black, means the day closed below\nthe opening price of the day. Figure 2 shows a nice, profitable\nexample, but it will not always be that way!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCreating the expert\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFirst, you need a rule that tells you when to go long and when\nto go short. This could be an extremely complicated setup with several rules, or it could be a simple approach\nsuch as a trend-following system using\nmoving averages and a crossover between two\naverages.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA crossover rule will work well as long as\nprices are trending. Unfortunately, as we know\nall too well, this is often not the case. The moving\naverages will cross and result in losses. Hence, it\nbecomes necessary to apply techniques to avoid\nthese unprofitable crosses as much as possible.\nAnd even then, with every signal you will have\nto decide whether to take the trade based on\nother technical analysis techniques.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo limit the volatility of the price change, I will\nnot use closing prices to create the expert indicator\n(SVEHaTypCross). I will use a smoothed\nversion of closing prices based on heikin-ashi\ncalculations on one side, and on the other side I\nwill use the typical closing price that is calculated\nby adding the high, low, and closing price and\ndividing the sum by three.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe first step is to create two new datasets,\none with the recalculated heikin-ashi closing\nprice (haC) and the other with the typical closing\nprice (typical):","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133985485169,"sku":"V31C10_630VERV","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_d72c839e-dbb3-4839-a443-95150a430979.jpg?v=1739660525"},{"product_id":"stcov313chva1","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:3 (34-36): The Chartmill Value Indicator (Part 3) by Dirk Vandycke","description":"The Chartmill Value Indicator (Part 3) by Dirk Vandycke\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEnhancing And Nonenhancing\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn the final article of this series, youll find more ways to apply the Chartmill value indicator\nand determine if it enhances the indicators you already use.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Chartmill value indicator (CVI) is a short-term oscillator which, like dozens of other\noscillators, tries to capture overbought and oversold situations. Because it is created using\na statistical normalization procedure, it is unlike most other well-known oscillators. For\none, it doesnt suffer from the stickiness that keeps other range-bound oscillators in overbought\nand oversold zones while a strong trend is developing. Second, the CVI copes nicely with the lag\nthat moving averagebased oscillators have. Finally, because it doesnt use any parameters, it is objective in its definition\nand hence is ideal for algorithmic\nimplementation in\nsoftware.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHence, it becomes necessary\nto have an objective\ninterpretation of the\nCVI. In this article, you\nwill find out if the CVI has\nany real and statistically\nsignificant usefulness.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eRecap\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe CVI going below ‑8\n(two standard deviations)\nis considered oversold or\nshort-term undervalued,\nwhile having it above +8\nwould be overbought and\nshort-term overvalued. If\nnecessary, you can consider\nsmaller intervals to\nincrease the number of\nsamples like [‑7, +7], as\n[‑8, +8] might give too few\nsignals while backtesting.\nIn addition, the interval\nused doesnt have to be\nsymmetrical. In a bull market,\nyou could consider\nanything below ‑6 already\noversold. But the indicator\nseems to perform well using\n[‑8, +8]. The changes\nin the interval are merely\nto drive up sample size\nin backtests and generate\nmore signals.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133985517937,"sku":"V31C03_511VAND","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_6de469e6-5af2-4160-9c47-ad8a1b2cb535.jpg?v=1739660529"},{"product_id":"stcov314syde1","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:8 (44-47): System Design Software, Part 2 by Sunny Harris","description":"System Design Software, Part 2 by Sunny Harris\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBasics Of Using Trading Software\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn Part 1 of this series on system design\nsoftware, we looked at AmiBroker\nand Adaptrade. Here in Part 2, well\nlook at two more products.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDesigning your own trading system\ncan give you a unique edge in your\ntrading. Software with good features\ncan certainly help the design\nprocess along. Fortunately, you have\nmany choices today when it comes to\nselecting system design software. Most\noffer similar features, but each has its\nsubtle differences. In this article series\nin which I take a look at different system\ndesign software, it is my goal to bring\nout the unique features of each of the\nproducts I consider. In this, the second\npart, I will discuss eSignal and Trade\nNavigator.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eeSignal, an Interactive\nData company\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e3955 Point Eden Way,\nHayward, CA 94545\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePhone: 510 266-6000\nFax: 510 266-6100\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eInternet: www.esignal.com\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn the days when I was newly in search\nof real-time data, it was eSignal I settled\non. Back then, data was transmitted over\nthe airways on a radio signal dedicated\nto data, and I used what was then called\nLotus Signal. I remember having a huge\ntelevision-type antenna on my roof, with\nwires coming down the side of my house\nand into my trading room. It always\nseemed like when I was in the middle of\na crucial trade, the antenna would need\nadjustment, and I would have my kids\nclimb the roof while we would yell back\nand forth, Turn it this way, turn it that\nway, stop! Youve got it. Im sure the\nneighbors thought I was nuts.\nFor the times when I was traveling,\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI carried a transistor radio-sized handheld\ndevice called QuoTrek on which\nI received my real-time quotes no\ncharts, just numbers. It was way ahead of\nits time, and only the coolest traders had\none. I also remember paying thousands\nof dollars each month for my data. Thank\ngoodness those days are gone, and now\ndata is all but free. Its a lot easier to\nmake a profit when your overhead isnt\nso high.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133985550705,"sku":"V31C08_602PRSY","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_57f5565c-c9b5-4dd8-81e0-226e6e807a57.jpg?v=1739660532"},{"product_id":"stcov316trti","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:1 (65-73): Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis Inc.","description":"Traders Tips by Technical Analysis Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor this months Traders Tips, the focus is\nBarbara Stars article in this issue, The DMI\nStochastic. Here we present the January\n2013 Traders Tips code.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCode for eSignal is already provided in\nStars article by the author. Subscribers will\nfind that code at the Subscriber Area of our\nwebsite, www.Traders.com. (Click on Article\nCode from our homepage.) Presented here is an overview\nof possible implementations for other software.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTraders Tips are provided to help the reader implement\na selected technique from an article in this issue.\nThe entries are contributed by various software developers\nor programmers for software that is capable of customization.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eReaders will find the January 2013 Traders Tips code\nat our website, Traders.com. Here, you can read some\ndiscussion of the techniques implementation by the Traders\nTips contributors as well as some example charts.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo locate Traders Tips at our website, use our sites\nsearch engine, or click on the Traders Tips link from our\nhome page. For past Traders Tips, go to http:\/\/traders.\ncom\/index.php\/sac-magazine\/departments\/traders-tips\nor click on the Complete Archive button from Traders.com\nfor past articles and Traders Tips in PDF format.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133985583473,"sku":"V31C01_474TIPS","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_10e8d807-e4d9-42d6-bc87-774b3682104c.jpg?v=1739660535"},{"product_id":"stcov313fufo","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:5 (36): Futures For You by Carley Garner","description":"Futures For You by Carley Garner\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMARKET SPECULATION\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat are the option greeks and can they\nbe applied to commodity options?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCollectively, the option greeks are\na group of equations used to measure\nand identify the sensitivity of an option\nprice to outside forces such as price\nchanges in the underlying asset, the\npassage of time, or changes in market\nvolatility. The greeks can be useful to\noption traders in many ways, but are\nmost often used as a proxy for trade\nprobability.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe greeks are similar to other market\ntools in that they tell traders what has\nalready happened, not what will happen\nin the future. This is the case despite\nsome option probability software that\nattempts to project trade probabilities.\nFor instance, the greek calculations take\ninto account todays market environment\nbut could adjust dramatically if\nvolatility or market sentiment changes\nsignificantly tomorrow. In other words,\nthe greeks and any resulting probability\ncalculations are dynamic, not static. Accordingly,\ntraders should refrain from\nallowing favorable greeks to lure them\ninto complacency.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn the case of commodity options,\nI argue that the greeks might be less\nreliable than is the case for options on\nstocks. This is partly due to generally\nless liquid market conditions (although\nmany commodity markets are highly\nliquid) and leveraged underlying assets.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere is a list of what I believe to be\nthe most useful greeks along with a\nshort description of the role they play\nin market speculation. Ive listed them\nin the order of what I believe to be their\nrelevancy.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133987385713,"sku":"V31C05_554GARN","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_07720826-9b54-46c5-975e-fda344df2cc8.jpg?v=1739660667"},{"product_id":"stcov315trti5","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:10 (52-61): Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis Inc.","description":"Traders Tips by Technical Analysis Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor this months Traders Tips, the focus is Sylvain\nVervoorts article in this issue, An Expert\nOf A System. Here we present the October\n2013 Traders Tips code with possible implementations\nin various software.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCode for NinjaTrader is already provided\nin Vervoorts article. Subscribers will find that\ncode at the Subscriber Area of our website, www.Traders.\ncom. (Click on Article Code from the S\u0026amp;C menu.)\nPresented here is an overview of possible implementations\nfor other software.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTraders Tips code is provided to help the reader implement\na selected technique from an article in this issue.\nThe entries are contributed by various software developers\nor programmers for software that is capable of customization.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eReaders will find the October 2013 Traders Tips code\nand formulas at our website, Traders.com, in the Traders\nTips area. Here, you can read some discussion of the\ntechniques implementation by the Traders Tips contributors\nas well as some example charts.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo locate Traders Tips at our website, click on the link\nfrom our home page, or use our sites search engine.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133987484017,"sku":"V31C10_640TIPS","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_f089ee3c-0433-460c-88d7-14e7d9905cf1.jpg?v=1739660670"},{"product_id":"stcov312hesh1","title":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities V. 31:5 (26-34): Head \u0026 Shoulders, Algorithmically, Part 2 by Giorgos E. Siligardos, PhD","description":"Head \u0026amp; Shoulders, Algorithmically, Part 2 by Giorgos E. Siligardos, PhD\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCrossing The (Neck)line\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn part 1, we looked at how to find important milestone points\nin a head \u0026amp; shoulders formation. In this, the second article\nof a two-part series, we present an algorithm that will let the\ncomputer find the formations for us.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn Figure 1, you can see what I call milestone points for\na completed closing-price head \u0026amp; shoulders (H\u0026amp;S)\nformation that is, an H\u0026amp;S formation generated by\nthe closing price where it has penetrated the neckline. However,\nthese milestones are defined regardless of whether there is an\nH\u0026amp;S pattern present. In this article, I will elaborate on the necessary conditions that these points must meet in order to\noutline an H\u0026amp;S. Being aware of these conditions will help\nyou create an identification algorithm.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMetrics and notations\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBefore delving into the conditions, I will define some of the\nimportant points and metrics (see Figure 2):\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e* V is the highest closing price during the time span\nbetween L0 and H1\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e* W is the highest closing price during the time span\nbetween L3 and the last closing price\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e* The time distance (number of bars) between H1\nand H will be called Dist1 and the time distance\nbetween H and H2 will be called Dist2\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e* The time distance between L0 and L1 will be called\nDist1#, the time distance between L1 and L2 will\nbe called Dist#, and the time distance between L2\nand L3 will be called Dist2#\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e* t1 will be the time distance between H1 and L1 and\nt2 will be the time distance between L2 and H2.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe conditions\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe first condition has to do with the vertical distance\nrelationship between H1 and H as well as between H2\nand H. We want H1 to be sufficiently higher than\nL1, but not too close to H. In addition, H2 must\nbe sufficiently higher than L2 but again not too\nclose to H (see Figure 2).","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133989941617,"sku":"V31C05_544SILI","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_c48c9638-4de7-454f-a856-3d80ad99e6ea.jpg?v=1739660813"}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/collections\/volume-31-2013-18.gif?v=1739677688","url":"https:\/\/shop.traders.com\/collections\/volume31\/issue-07.oembed?constraint=issue-05","provider":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities","version":"1.0","type":"link"}