{"title":"Volume 8 (1990)","description":"\u003cp\u003eBrowse Volume articles by issue:\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:12px;\"\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-01?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 1 January\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-02?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 2 February\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-03?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 3 March\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-04?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 4 April\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-05?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 5 May\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-06?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 6 June\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-07?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 7 July\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-08?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 8 August\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-09?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 9 September\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-10?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 10 October\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-11?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 11 November\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-12?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 12 December\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-13?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 13 Quick Scans\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-8\/issue-14?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 14 Product Reviews\u003c\/a\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","products":[{"product_id":"v08-c04-techtra-pdf","title":"V.8:4 (145-151): Technically trading the ¥en by Thomas P. Drinka, Timothy L. Krehbiel, Stephen Ptasienski","description":"Technically trading the en by Thomas P. Drinka, Timothy L. Krehbiel, Stephen Ptasienski\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSpeculators and commercial hedgers who trade currency futures often use technical analysis to determine trading signals. We statistically tested 34 of these indicators to see which were profitable and free from such bias as auto-correlation when used to trade the International Money Market (IMM) yen contract. Of the 34 indicators in Figure 1,16 survived our testing. The indicators are used to exploit price trends or price volatility. The former, referred to as \"BS\/SW,\" usually involve buying strong markets and selling weak ones, while the latter use involves buying a weak market and selling a strong one and so are labeled \"BW\/SS.\" Of the 34 indicators, 28 are trend followers.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWe tested each indicator with one to three parameters over a range of values. For example, accumulation\/ distribution in Figure 1 has a \"short\" parameter that was decremented from 98 to 52 by two-point steps and a \"long\" parameter that was incremented from 2 to 48 by two-point steps. In all, these parameters generated 576 different combinations!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWe used out-of-sample trading to get the best simulation of real-world results. We first simulated trading on a year's data using the nearby contracts. The simulator, Micro Vest's BackTrak, then chose the best parameters and traded them for the next succeeding quarter, which was not part of the year sampled. Then we moved everything up one quarter and repeated the process. In all, we calculated returns from March 2, 1978, to September 1, 1987.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133793792369,"sku":"\\V08\\C04\\TECHTRA.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_c64c7f9a-3496-45e4-8826-f1bdb48d1bbc.jpg?v=1739652671"},{"product_id":"v08-c07-tissea-pdf","title":"V.8:7 (255-256): 'Tis The Season by Bob Kargenian","description":"'Tis The Season by Bob Kargenian\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe seasonal tendencies of the stock market have been the subject of extensive research. The likes of Yale Hirsch, Arthur A. Merrill, Martin Zweig and Norman Fosback all noted technical analysts have explored this topic, and most have conducted ongoing studies. My interest lies in what has happened to seasonal tendencies since the advent of stock-index futures and whether they can still be profitably exploited by investors and traders.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEssentially, there are six types of seasonal tendencies days of the week; months; month-end; holidays; the Presidential cycle, and, finally, the year-end tax selling that is tied in with the \"January effect.\" Holidays and month-end tendencies appear to offer the most viable strategies for profiting from index futures.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThese strategies are about as simple as they can be. For holidays, you would purchase index futures on the close, two days prior to the holiday. Sell the futures on the close prior to the holiday, with the exception of Thanksgiving and Christmas, when you sell on the close the day after the holiday. For the month-end, purchase futures each month on the close of the day prior to the last trading day of the month, hold them for five days and then sell on the close of the fourth trading day of the new month.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133793825137,"sku":"\\V08\\C07\\TISSEA.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_008ddab1-b559-45fc-8f77-b253ceaef1c4.jpg?v=1739652673"},{"product_id":"v08-c03-liquid-pdf","title":"V.8:3 (121-123): Liquidity Data Bank: Big promises, small deliveries by Thomas K Bonen","description":"Liquidity Data Bank: Big promises, small deliveries by Thomas K. Bonen\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn 1984, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) introduced the revolutionary Liquidity Data Bank (LDB) to the general public. It was a truly unique venture intended to open up the exchange and its price information to the investing public with hopes of increasing non-member trading in its sagging agricultural products. With this introduction, the CBOT created a database of information that previously only floor traders could observe. It was a database of the actual trading volume for each price traded during the dayan absolutely novel disclosure. Armed with this exciting new database, the public (non-members of the CBOT) could know the specific volume traded at each individual price throughout the day's trading session.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe LDB was a monumental undertaking and one of the most forward-thinking disclosures ever made by an exchange or institution. The CBOT actually provided something not demanded by its customers or initiated by its competitors. At the time, it was the perfectand necessarycomplement to the Market Profile, a new form of market and price analysis being developed by CBOT member Peter Steidlmayer and his colleagues.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe LDB and Steidlmayer's \"price-time-volume analysis\" were supposed to be the perfect marriage of data and analysis. But was it a perfect union?","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133795299697,"sku":"\\V08\\C03\\LIQUID.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_7ef33835-43da-4118-89e6-da817ec7b40b.jpg?v=1739652711"},{"product_id":"v08-c04-volat-pdf","title":"V.8:4 (155-157): Volatility analysis in tactical stock trading by Peter Eliason","description":"Volatility analysis in tactical stock trading by Peter Eliason\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEvery stock, average and index has its own characteristic volatility range that holds the signals of impending price change. The challenge in technical analysis is to recognize and decipher these signals to determine which stocks, at what times, promise the most profitable trades.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGenerally, stocks with less than 10% weekly volatility hold little risk. When weekly volatilities exceed 10%, a price change may be imminent. Trading volatility requires a familiarity with the volatility characteristics of individual stocks, averages and indices.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133796807025,"sku":"\\V08\\C04\\VOLAT.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_90fdff60-9e95-4a69-b697-6d7f3699fec4.jpg?v=1739652741"},{"product_id":"v08-c02-sidebt-pdf","title":"V.8:2 (47-55): SIDEBAR: Test parameters","description":"SIDEBAR: Test parameters\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eParameters needed to use a Bezier program or to test curves by hand.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133797855601,"sku":"\\V08\\C02\\SIDEBT.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_a135bc17-db32-4052-b0cf-9de4b1c1147c.jpg?v=1739652775"},{"product_id":"v08-c11-oneapp-pdf","title":"V.8:11 (441-443): One Approach To Trading Bonds by Thom Hartle","description":"One Approach To Trading Bonds by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDuring the course of trading, the technician strives to enhance profitability by developing a consistent approach. Success in trading, as in any profession or practicing any skill, comes from the school of hard knocks, trial and error: experience, and developing good judgment.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTrading is perhaps one of the most difficult skills to acquire because experience can be so expensive. There is no four- or six-year university that will give the prospective trader a curriculum, tests, field trips and homework in the art and science of trading. There are, however, books, seminars, individual lessons and a host of other sources (including this magazine) that can help you to develop trading skills. Ultimately, though, it will be you your judgment that sets the stage for your success.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBut who are you? The answer to that question means a great deal, for it will influence what to expect from your adventure into trading. Insight into your own personality can help steer you to your own best approach to the markets. Are you very patient and methodical? If yes, then you should look into longer-term approaches. You probably do not want to be bothered with day-to-day volatility, for you may consider it to be a lot of noise, clouding the issue of what the trends are.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133800706417,"sku":"\\V08\\C11\\ONEAPP.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_3e99285e-b4b2-42ea-ade5-fd1c7c209278.jpg?v=1739652804"},{"product_id":"v08-c11-movamy-pdf","title":"V.8:11 (434-437): Moving Average Myths by Jason S. Glazier","description":"Moving Average Myths by Jason S. Glazier\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThere is a myth that commonly used averaging and smoothing techniques require different times to calculate. The simple, step-weighted and exponentially smoothed moving averages are the most commonly used for technical analysis. These three moving averages dominate technical analysis methodology. Rarely do technical analysis publications or books mention any aspects of efficiency in calculating commonly used functions, and commercial technical analysis programs often overlook these algorithms as well. To test this, see if your commercial program takes significantly longer to calculate a 40-day step weighted moving average than an exponentially smoothed moving average. Because these averages are calculated so frequently, it is essential that efficiency is considered. I will present linear iterative algorithms in C code for all three commonly used moving averages.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133801984369,"sku":"\\V08\\C11\\MOVAMY.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_6a436871-9fd1-485b-9138-9bf25debb11e.jpg?v=1739652843"},{"product_id":"v08-c06-spec-pdf","title":"V.8:6 (230-233): Speculating in vertical spreads by Bradley J. Horn","description":"Speculating in vertical spreads by Bradley J. Horn\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMany gasoline traders are familiar with the fundamentals of spread trading with New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) energy futures. Far fewer, however, are able to recognize opportunities in option spreads, for good reason: The trader entering an options market for the first time may find himself subject to \"contract shock,\" for unlike the futures trader, whose spread choices are limited to 15 contracts, the options trader must deal with a bewildering assortment of contracts, each with its own price dynamics.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSpread traders will find that the limited risk and flexibility in options trading can be more responsive to their needs than only trading in futures. The innovative traders and risk managers can use spreads by utilizing gasoline options to achieve attractive returns and hedge protection at low cost. At the same time, an options spread can be used to reflect different expectations through varying market conditions, thereby enabling traders to fine tune their market response. One strategy that provides such flexibility is known as the vertical spread.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA vertical spread consists of one long option and one short option, where both legs of the spread are of the same type (that is, both calls or both puts) and expire simultaneously. Each leg differs only by the strike price of the individual option.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133802836337,"sku":"\\V08\\C06\\SPEC.PDF","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_17306100-ba41-4117-96fc-ed28dc1de290.jpg?v=1739652861"},{"product_id":"v08-c07-short-pdf","title":"V.8:7 (245-247): A Short-Term Buy Signal For The DJIA by John Toombs","description":"A Short-Term Buy Signal For The DJIA by John Toombs\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBuying the first retreat in prices following a strong move up in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is often profitable. Three questions are involved in doing so, however. What constitutes a \"strong move up\"? Then should you buy? When should you close the position?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAll three questions can be answered by using a slow version of the 20-day stochastic oscillator. Since September 1984 there have been 20 signals, almost four a year. Nineteen have been winners and only one a loser.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe stochastic oscillator, with its scale of zero to 100%, shows whether closing prices have been near the upper or the lower limits of the range of highs and lows for a predetermined period of time, in this case 20 trading days. The 20-day raw value locates the position of the last close of the DJIA within the range lowest low to highest high during the last 20 trading days.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133802869105,"sku":"\\V08\\C07\\SHORT.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_cae1dd61-1e98-401f-80f0-1e91aebe16d4.jpg?v=1739652864"},{"product_id":"v08-c10-revers-pdf","title":"V.8:10 (371-376): Reversal Patterns by Melanie F. Bowman and Thom Hartle","description":"Reversal Patterns by Melanie F. Bowman and Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMarket prices, as one well-worn adage points out, are trapped in a two-dimensional world with little directional leeway. They are either climbing up, dropping down or moving sideways. And, the fact is, there is no refuting this simplistic truth.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePrices distill the complex interplay of supply and demand, the collective fear and bravado of sellers and buyers, and lay it out as up, down or sideways. The art of chart analysis lies in deducing whether a particular motion signifies that buyers' demand or sellers' supply is predominating.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePrices move up when buyers' demand is greater than sellers' supply. The early stage of a bull market begins from a price base, or support level. This is known as a period of accumulation or support, where buyers are purchasing shares, and their interest at a low price keeps it from declining.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133802901873,"sku":"\\V08\\C10\\REVERS.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_7aa1e070-b4c8-4b90-bf1c-c7e0b6bb322e.jpg?v=1739652866"},{"product_id":"v08-c12-sidebw-pdf","title":"V.8:12 (450-452): SIDEBAR: WSJ FUTURES","description":"SIDEBAR: WSJ FUTURES\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn The Wall Street Journal , you will find the closing prices of both the S\u0026amp;P 500 index and S\u0026amp;P futures in the futures table of the Index Trading Section. This sidebar gives a sample of the August 21, 1990, futures prices.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133805261169,"sku":"\\V08\\C12\\SIDEBW.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_10249237-c8ac-48e7-810b-644d9947a988.jpg?v=1739652929"},{"product_id":"v08-c05-newhi-pdf","title":"V.8:5 (197-198): New high and new low indicators by Mike Burk","description":"New high and new low indicators by Mike Burk\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI use new high and new low indicators to help define cycles. My new high and new low indicators, which I developed with a computer and represent graphically, are exponential moving averages of the daily new highs and lows of the New York Stock Exchange.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThese indicators have specific uses. For example, the new high indicator is useful for confirming upside moves but is useless on downside moves. However, the new low indicator is the single best indicator I have found for defining cycles.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBelow are the definitions of the terms I use to discuss these indicators:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Confirmation Both a price index\/average and an indicator reach a new high or new low for the period in question. Figure 1 is a good example of consecutive new high confirmations on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Non-confirmation A price index\/average reaches a new high or a new low for the period and the indicator does not. Confirmations imply no reversal in prices, while non-confirmations suggest a price reversal.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Period The number of trading days shown on a chart. Some of these indicators are period-sensitive that is, with a period longer or shorter than that recommended, the indicator may be confusing or even misleading.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133807686001,"sku":"\\V08\\C05\\NEWHI.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_6ac7ffda-af49-4988-b934-9ec3330c0720.jpg?v=1739652958"},{"product_id":"v08-c08-findcyc-pdf","title":"V.8:8 (287-293): Finding Cycles In Time Series Data by A. Bruce Johnson, Ph.D.","description":"Finding Cycles In Time Series Data by A. Bruce Johnson, Ph.D.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo improve the process of removing trend from stock market prices to see underlying cyclic movement, I have combined triangular moving averages with the moving average convergence\/divergence (MACD) concept of calculating the difference between two moving averages.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFigures 1-9 indicate that this new technique shows some promise, at the cost of some moving average lag. This loss is redeemed by the gain of a stationary curve that retains, and may reinforce, the cycles in the original data.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTrend can be removed from data in a number of ways before searching for cycles. Nearly all analysis of stock market prices, or any time series data, requires the removal of trendthat is, data must be made stationary. Popular techniques to remove trend are:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e(1)Take first differences. Yesterday's value is subtracted from today's value, the day before yesterday's value from yesterday's, and so on.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e(2)Use of residuals from regression. A least-squares trendline is fitted to the data. Then, for each time period, the value of the least-squares trend is subtracted from the value of the data.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133808013681,"sku":"\\V08\\C08\\FINDCYC.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_d35e6538-b39b-4d46-a9c4-ed3068917c54.jpg?v=1739652961"},{"product_id":"v08-c11-timin-pdf","title":"V.8:11 (429-431): Timing The Bond Market With Elliott And Fibonacci by Roger Farley","description":"Timing The Bond Market With Elliott And Fibonacci by Roger Farley\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFibonacci ratio analysis offers the Treasury bond trader an excellent long-term picture of the market. A rudimentary understanding of the Elliott wave theory and Fibonacci retracements allows bond traders of any outlook an excellent projection of market objectives and turning points.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eObviously, this approach relies on maintaining a proper wave count. Technicians who have developed a reliance on other trading tools often shy away from the Elliott wave because of the subtleties involved in interpreting corrections. As with any other approach, however, a focus on the overall picture sorts out\nsome of those complexities.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAccording to Elliott wave theory, the first, third and fifth waves are proportional by the 1 to 1.618 to 1 ratio. The bond market demonstrates this ratio to a remarkable degree in the move from its August 1989 high of 101.08 to the May 1990 low of 88.07.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133808046449,"sku":"\\V08\\C11\\TIMIN.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_1d015f60-9def-416f-93cf-7f96ee54a2b3.jpg?v=1739652964"},{"product_id":"v08-c05-simpvar-pdf","title":"V.8:5 (185-186): A simple variation of the moving average by Peter Aan","description":"A simple variation of the moving average by Peter Aan\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGeneral description: The Moving Average Direction System is trend-following; always in the market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOriginator: Peter Aan\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAdvantages: Profits from most significant trends; entry technique eliminates some false signals.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDisadvantages: Must wait for close for entry signals; optimal stops somewhat loose for small traders; whipsaw losses in sideways markets.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eRules and formulas: Uses a simple moving average (MA) of closing prices. To compute a 30-day MA, for instance, total up the closing prices for the most recent 30 days and divide that total by 30. Repeat that process every day, using only the most recent 30 days for each calculation.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133808996721,"sku":"\\V08\\C05\\SIMPVAR.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_5ae3d964-52c0-4079-abe2-5788d264b660.jpg?v=1739652991"},{"product_id":"v08-c11-jimow-pdf","title":"V.8:11 (426-428): Jim Owen On Professional Investment Managers by Mike Takano","description":"Jim Owen On Professional Investment Managers by Mike Takano\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eJim Owen is managing director of NWQ Investment Management Co. and author of The Prudent Investor, published by Probus Publishing Co. He is co-founder and executive vice president of the Investment Management Consultants Association (IMCA), a national organization representing investment management consultants, money managers, attorneys and certified public accountants who serve the middle market investor, or investors or institutions with accounts of $5 million to $100 million.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: Do you think the information pool or resources are out there for the private trader?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: That's a good question. Unfortunately, so much of what you get from the brokerage firm is biased, written more to make a sale than to provide the consumer with unbiased information. There's no lack of information. If anything, we're all inundated with data. But where the individual investor can get unbiased information is, I think [the real problem].\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: What is your idea of a diversifed portfolio diversifying across industries or diversifying among the fnancial products such as options, bonds, commodities?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: In our business, diversification usually means diversifying across several asset categories. That would include stocks, bonds, real estate, venture capital. That probably doesn't include some of the more exotic vehicles such as commodities and options. Those, to me, are more specialized areas.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133810078065,"sku":"\\V08\\C11\\JIMOW.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_d37109f8-922e-4be3-a8c8-befcdce68012.jpg?v=1739653014"},{"product_id":"v08-c11-second-pdf","title":"V.8:11 (417-418): Second Hour Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.","description":"Second Hour Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn 1983 I noted an indicator developed by analyst Stan Weinstein: the last hour indicator. Changes in prices in the last hour seemed to be useful in forecasting the future. Having an hourly data bank extending back to 1971 plus a fine bump of curiosity, I wrote a program and checked it out. The index did indeed prove useful.\nMy curiosity urged me on, and I checked the other hours of the day. Nothing happened until I tested the hour from 11 a.m. to noon, which, at that time, was the second hour. Here the score jumped up into the significant range. It was even more useful than the last hour.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhy should this be? One possible reason is the public sees the closing prices in the evening paper when they come home from work, and place their orders before the opening the next morning. The professionals move in later and correct the erroneous judgment and trading of the public.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133810110833,"sku":"\\V08\\C11\\SECOND.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_016095cb-b5b2-4183-8dcc-b356bc8bb2d3.jpg?v=1739653016"},{"product_id":"v08-c07-basicp-pdf","title":"V.8:7 (257-259): Basic Programming For Technical Analysis, part 2 by Steve Notis","description":"Basic Programming For Technical Analysis, part 2 by Steve Notis\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLast month I explained the advantages of doing some of your own programming for technical analysis. I showed you a program called MSTRLST, which allows you to see the real names of CompuTrac and MetaStock files. In addition, I wrote about Microsoft QuickBASIC as my choice for a beginner's programming language. Since then, I have read an article in Byte by William Gates, founder of Microsoft\nand coauthor of the first BASIC interpreter for the IBM personal computer. The article was occasioned by BASIC's 25th birthday, and reading it confirmed my suspicion that BASIC is a very underrated language.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAccording to Gates, BASIC is coming on stronger than ever. The language has new features to give it a modular structure like Pascal, its programs and arrays are no longer limited in size, and its speed is the equal of any language short of Assembly. A joke is running around Microsoft's programming department. When a big job using a \"more advanced\" language falls behind schedule, someone will inevitably quip: \"Give it to Bill. He'll write it in BASIC over the weekend!\"","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133811552625,"sku":"\\V08\\C07\\BASICP.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_2c2a9c7d-959b-4bc9-a605-a91b388a2143.jpg?v=1739653057"},{"product_id":"v08-c01-stoclong-pdf","title":"V.8:1 (29-30): Stochastics and long-term trends by Thom Hartle","description":"Stochastics and long-term trends\nby Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe price of the bond futures market reacts to changing fundamentals that are global in nature and very\ncomplicatedForeign Central banks' policy on the exchange rate for the dollar, the rate of money supply\ngrowth in the United States, the employment situation, our fiscal policy, growth in the import and export\nsector, the Japanese stock market, the price of oil, international political tensions, just to name a few of\nthe fundamentals ! Day in and day out the marketplace analyzes, discusses, researches and acts on these\nfundamentals and more.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhile there appears to be an overwhelming source of information to dissect, it seems that the large\neconomic forces affecting the price of bonds actually produces very long trends.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne of the indicators that I use to indicate the direction of long-term trends (lasting anywhere from one to\nthree years) and price areas for possible reversals is the stochastics oscillator originated by George Lane.\nAn oscillator typically warns that a trend reversal is developing as price reaches an extreme level. Lane's\nstochastics oscillator analyzes the relationship between daily closes and their proximity to the high or low\nfor the day.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe positive rising price trend signal occurs when the %K crosses the %D line to the plus side. (See\nrelated article, \"Stochastics oscillator,\" on the following page.) A negative, falling price trend exists if the\n%K is below the %D line. Overbought is the +80 level while oversold is the +20 level (Figure 1 ).","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133813027185,"sku":"\\V08\\C01\\STOCLONG.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_3f528780-b5bf-4393-b255-0fe9ba26dcec.jpg?v=1739653087"},{"product_id":"v08-c09-keydte-pdf","title":"V.8:9 (357-358): The Keys To Technical Conditions by James S. Gould, Ph.D.","description":"The Keys To Technical Conditions by James S. Gould, Ph.D.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn the beginning, before personal computers routinely made trading decisions, there were traders who were able to decipher the language of the markets and earn trading profits. Today, traders have more electronic tools to analyze the markets than those of yesteryear could have imagined. Given the availability, power and diversity of those electronic tools, one would expect traders to devote more time analyzing market conditions prior to making trading decisions. Ironically, machines and associated paraphernalia (that is, software) have become master rather than servant for many traders.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTraders who rely exclusively on off-the-shelf trading systems and mathematical manipulations (usually of price) have become deaf and blind to many signals imparted by the market the very information that traders of previous years relied upon extensively. Market prices are determined by underlying demand and supply, reflecting buying and selling motivated by traders' hopes, greed and fears. Each electronic \"blip\" on the trading screen reflects a microcosm of these components and, when aggregated, provides a composite of the market's current internal strength or weakness and an indicator of future prices.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133813223793,"sku":"\\V08\\C09\\KEYDTE.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_40f45716-7798-45ff-85b7-7152c8df2efa.jpg?v=1739653089"},{"product_id":"v08-c08-histpt-pdf","title":"V.8:8 (296-298): Historical Patterns In The Long-Term Stock Market by James G. Arnold","description":"Historical Patterns In The Long-Term Stock Market by James G. Arnold\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eStock markets have been around a long time, and historically, markets demonstrate some well-defined patterns. At some levels of averaging, one is even tempted to call the long-term market \"predictable.\" I use statistical analysis to reduce more than 100 years of market data to a simple mathematical model. I've sought to identify the important patterns and examine their significance. Understanding the cycles and trends of \"markets past\" should allow you to become comfortable with the market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePrices do not stay in line with value, and that is precisely what makes a stock market. Sometimes they are\ntoo high and sometimes they are too low, but they do swing around value andover the very long\nhaulprices will average out to value. Price is simply a number upon which buyer and seller agree.\nValue is what a thing is worth. Over the very long haul, value will be recognized.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI use the Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 500 stock index for my model. Although this index measures\nhigh-capitalization stocks, it is value weighted and it does sample a reasonable fraction of the entire\nmarket. Data exist to trace the S\u0026amp;P 500 average back into the past century.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133813944689,"sku":"\\V08\\C08\\HISTPT.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_4edd54fb-c77c-467b-84f5-06aab9237ba7.jpg?v=1739653114"},{"product_id":"v08-c02-staying-pdf","title":"V.8:2 (66-69): Staying with the markets by Eric L. Sharp","description":"Staying with the markets by Eric L. Sharp\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eExperience is a great teacher, but she charges such horrendous fees. Traders in both the cash and futures markets know that better than anyone. Anything that increases your insight into directions and targets for prices can replace some costly lessons. For years now, I've used a combined process of statistical and technical analysis for making investment and trading decisions. The results of the statistical analyses give me a framework for making projections and recognizing over- and under valuations. That adds to my confidence in applying technical analysis for timing, and \"gutsing up\" for the actual trades.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe field of statistics supplies a method for mathematically working out relationships between causes and effects. Multiple regression analysis is what it's called. It's used in science, engineering, medical research and even in projecting the outcome of elections. In analyzing investments, we look at the price of an investment as an effect. Then we search for possible causes.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLet's take gold prices. The monthly average prices (the effects) for the past five or 10 years can be compiled and analyzed against an number of potential causes. Some possibilities are Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation, various foreign exchange rates, money supply, other metals prices, industrial production, the I.Q.'s of elected officials, and so on. The list of potential causes is endless. (Of course, the unavailability of some data is a problem just try to get a congressman's I.Q.).","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133814731121,"sku":"\\V08\\C02\\STAYING.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_03e2f794-4b1b-4e57-826b-90ce8a4f3cb2.jpg?v=1739653135"},{"product_id":"v08-c06-pricep-pdf","title":"V.8:6 (222-224): Price patterns in soybeans by Toby Crabel","description":"Price patterns in soybeans by Toby Crabel\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn my search to determine whether price patterns signal the next day's market direction, I have tested all combinations of four closing prices followed by either a higher or lower open the day after the last close. I used the soybean market between 1970 and 1988 and studied 32 patterns based on open, high, low and close. The only criterion to determine the direction of the next day's trade was gross profits.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe five-day patterns in Figure 1 are symbolized by a + for an up closing relative to the previous day and a - for a down closing, with the exception of the last symbol in the pattern, which is the open and the point of entry for the day of the trade. For example, pattern 30 starts on day 1 with a lower close than the previous day (-). Day 2 has a lower close than day 1 (-). Day 3 has a lower close than day 2 (-). Day 4 has a higher close than day 3 (+). Day 5's open is lower than day 4's close (-). A sale is assumed and entry is taken on day 5's open with trade exit on day 5's close.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133814763889,"sku":"\\V08\\C06\\PRICEP.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_05cf6735-1f87-4141-9eb2-c0ee34e7ff77.jpg?v=1739653137"},{"product_id":"v08-c07-archiv-pdf","title":"V.8:7 (260-263): Archiving The Experts by Jason S. Glazier","description":"Archiving The Experts by Jason S. Glazier\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf the experiential technical and fundamental knowledge of the stock experts were merged with the technical and fundamental buy\/sell indicators found in books and software, a more accurate market prediction system could be formed. Knowledge-based expert systems (KBES), an area of artificial intelligence (AI), is the methodology I have used to develop the basis for the market prediction system that is discussed here.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA knowledge-based expert system is a computer program that mixes textbook knowledge and human experience for a narrow application domain. Human experts provides knowledge not present in textbooks, because there is always a portion of \"field\" knowledge that never finds its way into books and few textbooks explain what to check first, where to start or what hunches to follow. Facts do not lend themselves to quick problem solving and novices tend to consider too many possibilities, most of which do not lead to a viable solution. Often, an expert can glance at a Quotron machine and determine if trading conditions are favorable, an ability not generally explained in a textbook.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133814829425,"sku":"\\V08\\C07\\ARCHIV.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_dbc826f6-e027-49a3-9f0e-679d3cd17160.jpg?v=1739653140"},{"product_id":"v08-c02-stockma-pdf","title":"V.8:2 (60-62): Stock market timing with interest rates by Jay Kaeppel","description":"Stock market timing with interest rates by Jay Kaeppel\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe level and trend of interest rates has a tremendous influence over what types of investments investors choose to put their money into. Generally, when interest rates are low and\/or falling, investors will move into the stock market, pushing prices higher. Conversely, when interest rates are high and\/or rising, investors will move out of stocks, thus pushing prices lower.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBy tracking interest rates, investors can often identify periods when the probability of higher stock prices is great. The key is knowing which interest rates to watch and which trends signal a high probability that prices will move. A simple indicator is the Treasury bill\/discount rate ratio (TB\/DR), which measures the relationship between two key interest rates. Over the past 35 years, the stock market has moved higher 90% of the time when this indicator has been bullish.\nIt is generally accepted among market technicians that it is a favorable sign for the stock market when the yield on three-month T-bills falls below the Federal Reserve Board's (Fed) discount rate, and an unfavorable sign for stock prices when T-bill yields rise above the discount rate. After researching this indicator in more detail, I was surprised to find just how useful this measure really is at signaling true bull market conditions.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133816467825,"sku":"\\V08\\C02\\STOCKMA.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_3bbd68a4-b1a6-48bb-a592-f38f4273df59.jpg?v=1739653206"},{"product_id":"v08-c09-princc-pdf","title":"V.8:9 (327-331): The Principle Of Contraction\/Expansion by Toby Crabel, CTA","description":"The Principle Of Contraction\/Expansion by Toby Crabel, CTA\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI define the principle of contraction\/expansion as the market phenomenon of change from a period of rest to a period of movement back to a period of rest. This interaction between the phases of motion and rest is constant, with one phase directly responsible for the other's existence.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor this report I will use daily open, high, low and close data. I tested a trading method called opening range breakouta trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the opening range.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA trend day is defined as a day when the first hour's trade makes up less than 10% of the day's range or the market has no dominant area of trade throughout the session. Trend days are characterized by an opening near one extreme and a close on the opposite extreme of the daily range. Trend days fall into the category of expansions.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133816926577,"sku":"\\V08\\C09\\PRINCC.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_a36e914f-718d-48e7-908b-11a7656b1b64.jpg?v=1739653224"},{"product_id":"v08-c04-optima-pdf","title":"V.8:4 (158-162): Optimizing moving averages by Charles J. McGuinness","description":"Optimizing moving averages by Charles J. McGuinness\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne of the first techniques you'll come across in almost any book on technical analysis is moving averages. Moving averages are amazingly handy in predicting the movement of securities. By themselves, they offer a simple means of generating reliable buy\/sell signalsmany people monitor a 200-day moving average to catch long-term trends. Moving averages can be used in conjunction with other indicators, helping to filter out the rapid buy-sell signals that minor fluctuations in price often generate. Perhaps the most alluring thing about moving averages is that they are easy to compute and easy to apply. Hardly a market timing indicator exists that doesn't incorporate them.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis simplicity can be deceptive when it is time to apply moving averages. A straightforward translation of a moving average algorithm into program code can produce an application that generates its results slowly. The first time I wrote a charting program I did nothing intricate in implementing the moving average subroutines; when I plotted the first moving average it was drawn across the screen at a snail's pace. It was so slow I assumed I had made some sort of drastic error in my coding! The problem was that the moving average algorithms on which I had based my code were designed to express the algorithms' concepts as simply as possible and designed without taking into account efficiency and real-world implementation issues.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf you use a lot of moving averagesfor example, in a charting programthis slowness can limit your ability to perform the kind of analysis you want to do. Here are some techniques for producing fast and efficient moving average routines. Whether you're experimenting with some simple programs in BASIC or writing complex optimization programs in C, these techniques can help turn a sluggish number cruncher into a speedy tool.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133817516401,"sku":"\\V08\\C04\\OPTIMA.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_f1ee2bbf-9fb1-49ec-b550-fd4ed28f3585.jpg?v=1739653247"},{"product_id":"v08-c04-sidebc-pdf","title":"V.8:4 (134-136): SIDEBAR: Correlating made easy","description":"SIDEBAR: Correlating made easy\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo find the correlation between two technical indicators, first calculate the positive or negative change of the indicator. If you were testing with no \"lagging,\" you'd then compare the first indicator's first change with the other indicator's first change. Utilizing the pencil and paper compartment technique outlined by Clifford Sherry in Stocks \u0026amp; Commodities, this comparison would be tallied in the appropriate ++, -+, +- or -- compartment. (The notations \"++,\" \"-+\" and so on refer to the four possible combinations of changes the two indicators show. If both have positive changes, a tally is made in the ++ compartment. If both fall, a tally is made in the -- compartment.)","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133817549169,"sku":"\\V08\\C04\\SIDEBC.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_24fd9c83-7b5c-4b67-b571-85aa255773b9.jpg?v=1739653250"},{"product_id":"v08-c04-tradgan-pdf","title":"V.8:4 (142-144): Trading with Gann lines by David Lamarr","description":"Trading with Gann lines by David Lamarr\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGann lines, although only a small part of W. D. Gann's methods, provide an effective, straightforward way of determining support and resistance areas and times when to expect a change in trend. They can be thought of as \"price\/time\" trendlines vs. the standard price-only trendlines many technical analysts use.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGann strongly believed time was the major factor in determining when a change of trend could be expected. These Gann lines project the market's natural rhythm on a price chart and have a distinct advantage over price trendlines by providing assistance in anticipating market moves vs. a price-following system, such as trendlines.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133824070001,"sku":"\\V08\\C04\\TRADGAN.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_81643bc6-e4f1-4d37-9f20-fb701e9ad594.jpg?v=1739653356"},{"product_id":"v08-c08-second-pdf","title":"V.8:8 (294-295): Secondaries by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT","description":"Secondaries by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf the owner of a large block wants to sell without generating a big price decline, he sometimes enlists the help of an underwriter. This type of sale is called a secondary offering. The underwriter uses his skills to dispose of the stock discretely at the best possible price.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOwners of large blocks certainly watch the performance of their stock and its company. Sometimes they are on the \"inside.\" They are not small operators, and they should have access to good information. Their wish to sell must have a reason: perhaps they have uncovered some bit of information that is unfavorable. As a result, the quantity of secondaries is a measure of informed bearishness. A large number of secondaries is a bearish sign, while a small number is bullish. This statistic is easy to watch. A list of secondaries is published each week in Barron's.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHow well has this indicator performed? The chart is the record of a 40% exponential average. (This is about the equivalent of a four-week moving average.) The average over the past 10 years is 2.7 secondaries per week, with a standard deviation of 2.2.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133824430449,"sku":"\\V08\\C08\\SECOND.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_b82154c2-e6f5-430b-b6ed-25b8c998252d.jpg?v=1739653359"},{"product_id":"v08-c08-makmon-pdf","title":"V.8:8 (319-322): Making Money With Chaos by Hans Hannula, Ph.D., RSA, CTA","description":"Making Money With Chaos by Hans Hannula, Ph.D., RSA, CTA\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAn order indeed exists in the market, as W.D. Gann and, more recently, J. Welles Wilder have claimed. But the order is not as perfect as some have made it out to be, simply because the market obeys the physical laws of a chaotic system. The purpose of this article is to explain the basic behavior of chaotic systems and to show you how to profit by them.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSince the publication of the popular book, Chaos, the Making of a New Science, many have tried to apply those theories to the markets. Profitable application of theory, however, requires a practical feel for the phenomenon you are studying. So let's start with basics.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eChaos theory was developed by scientists and mathematicians to describe the behavior of nonlinear systems. It has been found to describe real physical systems from waterwheels to heart attacks. So what's a nonlinear system? Well, a nonlinear system is one that is not straight. What linear means is that the input-output relationship of the system is a straight line. If you go out and press down on your car bumper, with 10 pounds of force the bumper might move one inch; with 20 pounds of push the bumper may move two inches. The distance moved is proportional to the force applied.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133825315185,"sku":"\\V08\\C08\\MAKMON.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_4d9c0b46-1848-41e2-a502-8eb6ed59fa09.jpg?v=1739653395"},{"product_id":"v08-c10-broad-pdf","title":"V.8:10 (388-391): The Broadening Formation And The Bond Market by Thom Hartle","description":"The Broadening Formation And The Bond Market by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTrading the bond futures market offers opportunity to the skilled chartist because a diversity of price patterns occurs over time. In reality, chart patterns are accumulation, distribution, consolidation or trending periods. If you are able to accurately recognize an accumulation period that is, demand, support or a price bottom and are positioned (long) for the markup in prices (an uptrend), then the accuracy of your work can be quite profitable.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe same can be said for correctly appraising a distribution period (otherwise known as a top, resistance or supply) prior to a markdown in prices (a downtrend). Another approach is to attempt to let others determine tops or bottoms and focus your own energy on successfully trading consolidations. Accomplishing this over time is no easy task. It can be inferred from the tremendous liquidity of the bond markets that players are both numerous and high quality. All the participants have the same goal, clearly indicating that the competition for profits is equally intense. There is no substitute for education and experience.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eExperience gives the trader insight into what may be referred to as the personality of the bond market. Understanding that personality can change your attitude from wanting to beat the market to being in sync with the market. Being attuned to the market's nature can increase profitability.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133827215729,"sku":"\\V08\\C10\\BROAD.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_f597673e-91f0-439b-ab4a-ac95716c2e31.jpg?v=1739653458"},{"product_id":"v08-c04-sidebma-pdf","title":"V.8:4 (158-162): SIDEBAR: How moving averages are computed","description":"SIDEBAR: How moving averages are computed\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMoving average are usually specified by two parameters. The first is the length of the moving average and is generally expressed in the same periodicity as the data. For example, if we have the daily price of the data, we might speak of a 10-day moving average. The second parameter is which data point's moving average we want to compute. For example, you might request the 30-day moving average for July 6.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThree moving average algorithms are in wide use: simple, linear and exponential. Each performs roughly the same goal of averaging several days (weeks, months and so forth) of data to eliminate minor\nfluctuations, and to extract the essence of the underlying trend. Each tries to perform this task in a slightly different way.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133828919665,"sku":"\\V08\\C04\\SIDEBMA.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_b5d61320-affb-4193-abf7-02b9ce6b35b7.jpg?v=1739653500"},{"product_id":"v08-c06-cyc89-pdf","title":"V.8:6 (212-215): 1989 cycles by John F. Ehlers","description":"1989 cycles by John F. Ehlers\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCycle activity in 1989 was substantially higher than in 1988, and some role reversals in cycle personalities appear to have occurred relative to the previous year. To measure and examine 1989 cycle activity, I used 12 perpetual futures contracts as data for the cycle measurements. These 12 contracts were continuations of the same perpetual contracts used for comparisons to 1988 cycle performance. The short-term cycles were measured using the MESA computer program. Valid cycles are reported when the \"cycle content\" (signal-to-noise ratio) exceeds a 6 deciBel (dB) threshold. A deciBel is a logarithmic measure of power, where the ratio doubles for each 3 dB increase. Thus, the 6 dB threshold is placed where the measured cycle power is four times the power of the noise in the data. Research and experience have shown that cycle strengths of this magnitude and stronger are suitable for trading.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe data measured over the year are shown in histograms for each of the 12 contracts. Each histogram displays how many times a 12-day cycle occurred over the year, how many times a 13-day cycle appeared, and so on. The cycle personality revealed by such a display should have an envelope shaped like the conventional Gaussian (bell-shaped) distribution curve, which would therefore have its peak at the predominant cycle personality. This is the statistical mean. The width of the bell would be a measure of the departure from the dominant cycle personality. Statisticians call the half-width (one side of the distribution) of the bell curve the variance.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133828952433,"sku":"\\V08\\C06\\CYC89.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_7ce53fef-02b8-4644-a5ca-8555ffbabb30.jpg?v=1739653502"},{"product_id":"v08-c06-implied-pdf","title":"V.8:6 (218-221): Implied economic forecasts by Dan DiBartolomeo","description":"Implied economic forecasts by Dan DiBartolomeo\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eInvestors rely on a variety of methodologies in constructing their portfolios. Some investors would classify themselves as fundamentally oriented, while others use technical analysis. Relatively few would claim to select securities or construct portfolios on the basis of economic forecasts. Most market participants have the attitude that even top economists have little ability to forecast future macroeconomic developments with any consistency. Further, they are of the opinion their own ability to forecast economic events accurately is even less trustworthy. On the other hand, major brokerage firms and banks have at least one economist on staff and many institutions use economic forecasts in making asset allocation decisions (stocks vs. bonds vs. cash).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAll agree, however, that macroeconomic effects influence returns on individual stocks. That oil prices affect oil and airline stocks comes as no surprise. That interest rates affect home construction is equally self-evident. Studies confirm that particular macroeconomic forces influence stock price movements and that some factors influence some stocks more than others. In that a stock or a portfolio of stocks is sensitive to a known economic factor, that sensitivity can be considered a risk. Even though we cannot predict movements in oil prices, we know that some stocks are positively influenced by oil price increases (oil stocks) while other stocks are negatively affected (airlines, utilities, plastics). By having a portfolio significantly sensitive to a macroeconomic factor, we are taking risks that may or may not be justifiable.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133828985201,"sku":"\\V08\\C06\\IMPLIED.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_828fb224-e09c-4288-98bf-c73cb0f3dda8.jpg?v=1739653505"},{"product_id":"v08-c11-markf-pdf","title":"V.8:11 (413-416): The Market Facilitation Index Update: 1\/89 to 3\/90 by Charles F. Wright","description":"The Market Facilitation Index Update: 1\/89 to 3\/90 by Charles F. Wright\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI have noticed through the years that when a technique is disclosed in the popular press you can count on it to stop working for some time after the disclosure. You can speculate as to why, but the most logical reason is that many individuals are testing it or trading it. With so many people looking at the system, it is not surprising that it does not work.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis may be the market's way of weeding out the inexperienced and the part-timers. Most novice traders test a new technique in the immediate period after its disclosure. If it is not instantly profitable they will abandon it in the face of sound historical data and begin anew their search for the best system. The Market Facilitation Index (MFI) was no exception to this phenomenon.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe MFI is calculated by dividing the range of an intraday bar (in this case a Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 30-minute bar) by its tick volume. The result is the number of points that the S\u0026amp;P moved for each tick during the bar. For instance, if the range of the bar is 200 points and the tick volume is 100 for the same bar, then the MFI = 0.500. This means that for every tick during this bar the S\u0026amp;P moved 0.5 points.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133829673329,"sku":"\\V08\\C11\\MARKF.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_27223194-81c4-4def-a9a2-b21ccfe0b688.jpg?v=1739653507"},{"product_id":"v08-c01-incrobv-pdf","title":"V.8:1 (40-43): Increasing OBV reliability with stock index futures by Gerald Appel","description":"Increasing OBV reliability with stock index\nfutures\nby Gerald Appel\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTraders have used volume pattern recognition techniques in an attempt to forecast price movement\nprobably for as long as records regarding trading volume have been maintained.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAs a general rule, a market is considered bullish when it rises on increasing volume and declines on\ndecreasing volume, and bearish when it advances on lighter volume and declines on heavier volume.\nUnfortunately, such rules are somewhat simplistic and subject to many exceptions. For example, a\nsituation where volume is diminishing as markets are advancing is not necessarily followed immediately\nby downside reversal, although diminishing volume during advances does often provide notice of\ndiminishing buying pressure a reliable enough concept, if not exactly precise in its timing and\napplication.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMany attempts have been made over the years to codify trading rules based on volume, though few have\nbeen successful. One of the best known is Joseph E. Granville's on-balance volume (OBV) technique.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133831508337,"sku":"\\V08\\C01\\INCROBV.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_5ff28c99-bef2-4f65-b7fc-dc4396fe42d0.jpg?v=1739653571"},{"product_id":"v08-c05-sidebr-pdf","title":"V.8:5 (169-173): SIDEBAR: Relevant formulas","description":"SIDEBAR: Relevant formulas\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFormulas are given for nominal price, earnings average, effective interest rate, and divergence as used in the article \"Determining stock value from price and earnings\" by Paul T. Holliday","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133832196465,"sku":"\\V08\\C05\\SIDEBR.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_21939473-82a8-4f5b-a1e3-bf26507a3d23.jpg?v=1739653590"},{"product_id":"v08-c01-stoctim-pdf","title":"V.8:1 (31-32): Stock timing to the discount rates by Jay Kaeppel","description":"Stock timing to the discount rates by Jay Kaeppel\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe course and direction of interest rates have long had a direct and often profound effect on the course of stock prices. When interest rates are rising, investors tend to turn away from the stock market and lean\nmore towards interest-bearing investments, such as Certificates of Deposits and Treasury bills. However, when interest rates begin to decline, investors look to the stock market as an avenue to increase their returns, as the returns on their interest-bearing investments decline. One of the most useful interest rate measures is the Federal Reserve Board's (the Fed) discount rate.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe discount is the rate that member banks pay to borrow money from the Fed. It is an important rate because it is directly controlled by the Fed, and the Fed has a great deal of influence over the direction of interest rates, inflation and, therefore, the economy. In most cases, the discount rate is not a leading indicator. However, it is extremely useful for identifying the underlying tone of the stock market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGenerally, a declining trend in the discount rate is much more bullish for stocks than a rising trend in the discount rate is bearish for stocks. When the discount rate is declining, stock prices invariably go up. When the discount rate is rising, stock prices do not always go down, but the last two major bear markets (1969-70 and 1973-74), were both preceded by a hike in the discount rate, as was the 1987 crash.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133833277809,"sku":"\\V08\\C01\\STOCTIM.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_fc5cd604-40d5-4a60-a648-0ec7a232eab6.jpg?v=1739653637"},{"product_id":"v08-c05-stockab-pdf","title":"V.8:5 (204-205): Stocks above moving averages by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT","description":"Stocks above moving averages by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe percentage of stocks above their moving averages has been tracked for a number of years by Investor's Intelligence, a weekly report that includes the number of New York Stock Exchange issues above their 10-week and 30-week moving averages.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHow useful are these figures? I calculated the standard deviations over the past 10 years. As benchmarks, I tried two-thirds of a standard deviation above and below the mean and a full standard deviation. Using these benchmarks to determine which figures were noticeably low or high, I checked their success in forecasting the direction of the market during the next week, the next five weeks, the next 13 weeks, the next 26 weeks and during the next year.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe results didn't show significant success over the short term. The only statistically significant scores for the percentage over 10 weeks were in forecasting the direction over the next 26 weeks. If the number above one standard deviation is considered bullish and the below minus one standard deviation is considered bearish, the indicator was right 61% of the time, or 3-to-2 odds. This isn't startling, but the chi square test did indicate significance.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133834359153,"sku":"\\V08\\C05\\STOCKAB.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ed6e104b-53d9-4843-9ef5-d3376ec17960.jpg?v=1739653669"},{"product_id":"v08-c11-sideba-pdf","title":"V.8:11 (419-422): SIDEBAR: Assessing volatility's predictive value","description":"SIDEBAR: Assessing volatility's predictive value\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo assess the predictive value of volatility, I reviewed 1,443 days of price action on the Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 100 stock index, starting on May 15, 1984. Volatility was measured by the standard deviation of percentage change in closing prices over a 20-day period and the ensuing price action by the ratio of the highest to the lower closing price in the 30 days following the end of the volatility estimation period.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf periods of low volatility are followed by large price moves, the coefficient of correlation between volatility and price action should be large and negative large because volatility and price action are deemed to be closely related, negative because they vary in opposite directions.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133834883441,"sku":"\\V08\\C11\\SIDEBA.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_9de1ac49-eff1-4f36-971c-1d6ed87f1320.jpg?v=1739653692"},{"product_id":"v08-c12-custom-pdf","title":"V.8:12 (482-483): Customer Option Activity by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.","description":"Customer Option Activity by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Options Clearing Corporation issues a weekly report to subscribers that lists the totals of options bought and sold on all exchanges nationwide. The transactions are segregated by customer, market makers and by firm. Technical analyst Robert Nurock developed an index of professional activity based on the buying and selling of puts and calls. I've applied his idea to the customer area.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf the public (customers) are optimistic and are buying calls, the calls are being supplied to them by smart money the professionals. This should be a bearish sign. If the public buys puts, they are pessimistic, and their puts are supplied by smart money. Quite bullish! To put this into the form of an index, Bob Nurock suggested the formula in Figure 1 (I've changed it from\nprofessionals to customers). The denominator is the total activity. I multiply the ratio by 100 to put it into percentage form and smooth with a 33% exponential average. This is the index shown in Figure 2. High figures are bearish; low figures are bullish.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133834916209,"sku":"\\V08\\C12\\CUSTOM.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ee5b0231-6966-49e7-828e-b9b240a5bce1.jpg?v=1739653694"},{"product_id":"v08-c08-onbatt-pdf","title":"V.8:8 (316-318): On The Battlefield by Mike Burk","description":"On The Battlefield by Mike Burk\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn Elliott wave theory, the A, B and C waves refer to the reaction following the initial decline from a cycle top: The A wave is the initial decline, the B wave is a slight advance after the initial decline and the C wave is the decline following the secondary high. The period of the most rapidly moving prices in the stock market is often the beginning of this second decline, the beginning of the C portion of the Elliott wave, a downward wave that occurs after an unconfirmed market top drops for a while and then begins moving up again.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAs such, it is the best time to buy puts. With this in mind I looked for this B and C wave formation after the widely unconfirmed stock market top of September 1, 1989. The picture that developed was remarkably similar to the July 5-November 14, 1978, cycle, when my upside volume indicator (AV) and basic volume indicator (VOL) collapsed while prices rose. (See my previous articles listed in the Reference section at the end of this article.) In 1978, the cycle price top was confirmed by the advance-decline line (ADL) and AV. Both weakened quickly after the price top.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOn October 3, 1989, when the DJIA closed at a new all-time high of 2754.56, it appeared to be walking on air. Not one of my indicators even came close to supporting the high. My patience lasted until the afternoon of October 5, when it appeared that the DJIA would close higher with declining issues outnumbering advancing issues.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133835211121,"sku":"\\V08\\C08\\ONBATT.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_b54e8283-83ae-468c-a94e-a49fc7031f0f.jpg?v=1739653705"},{"product_id":"v08-c12-sidebis-pdf","title":"V.8:12 (464-468): SIDEBAR: IMPLEMENTING THE SYSTEM","description":"SIDEBAR: IMPLEMENTING THE SYSTEM\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe system described is complex, and therefore we are implementing it gradually, starting with a small prototype that automates only a small fraction of the total system. The expert system described here programs only some of those decisions that depend on market timing. It's built with the aid of the VP-Expert shell (knowledge base management system) Release 2.0, made by Paperback Software International. Its platform is the IBM PS\/2 Model 55SX with 2 MB of RAM and a 30-MB hard disk with a double-sided 3.5-inch diskette drive, together with the MS-DOS 3.0 operating system.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133835276657,"sku":"\\V08\\C12\\SIDEBIS.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_3b44a0fb-58d2-4a4d-8deb-b94eb4d2e7e5.jpg?v=1739653707"},{"product_id":"v08-c02-barnr-pdf","title":"V.8:2 (70-73): 2-bar NR and ORB by Toby Crabel","description":"2-bar NR and ORB by Toby Crabel\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMarkets are in a constant state of flux; they are continuously shifting from movement to rest and back to movement again. This interchange is never ending from contraction to expansion to contraction with one phase directly responsible for the other's existence. A two-bar narrowing range (2-bar NR), a price pattern that is the narrowest two-day range relative to any two-day range within the previous 20 market days, reflects that market activity and quantifies the market concept of contraction. Thus, contraction is a relative condition that can occur even in a volatile market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOnce a market concept is formulated, it becomes tradeable. In this study, an opening range breakout (ORB) trade was taken the day after the 2-bar NR was formed. An ORB is defined as a trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the opening range. My assumption is that with a contraction of this kind, trending action would follow the direction of the breakout. Another assumption is that because this pattern is such a well-defined contraction, trending would take place over the next several days. Figures 2 through 9 confirm these assumptions and illustrate, in order:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The amount above or below the open that the trade was initiated.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The number of days in the trade (zero indicates an exit on the close the same day of entry, five indicates an exit on the close five days after the entry).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Whether the trade was a buy or a sell (determined by gross profits only).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The percentage profitability on each trade (no stops were used on the tests).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The number of trades.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e The average of all winning and losing trades.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Gross profit exclusive of commission or slippage.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133838094705,"sku":"\\V08\\C02\\BARNR.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_090abd30-ee61-4af0-aae0-30e4589e7b1b.jpg?v=1739653806"},{"product_id":"v08-c11-stagea-pdf","title":"V.8:11 (423-425): Stage Analysis by Thom Hartle","description":"Stage Analysis by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFunds are invested in markets for various reasons. A high return on investment capital, of course, is the ultimate goal. Investment decisions, however, often are made with only limited amounts of careful thinking behind the decision to place capital at risk. The competitive nature of any market dictates that success over the long run will be directly correlated with the amount of effort advanced.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe process of carefully thought-out investment begins with a thorough understanding of the market in question and a range of information sources. The typical first step is using the research reports and recommendations that brokerage houses generate. Subscribing to newsletters that have daily and weekly telephone trading ideas is usually the next step. Finally, to understand balance sheets, earnings, cash flows and valuation techniques, reading books on the subject come last.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAfter all is said and done, a nagging question remains about the timing of the investment decisions. Purchasing software that collects price data is the next step in achieving better performance. This display of data requires interpretation much the way reading a map requires interpretation. The quest to understand this map is the study of technical analysis.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133838127473,"sku":"\\V08\\C11\\STAGEA.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_63f1b98d-6847-4345-ae5f-e42e97a5af57.jpg?v=1739653808"},{"product_id":"v08-c09-righton-pdf","title":"V.8:9 (345-347): Right On Target by Richard W. Arms Jr.","description":"Right On Target by Richard W. Arms Jr.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI used to buy stocks and commodities in the same manner in which Columbus sailed to the New World: I didn't know where I was going when I started out, and when I got there I didn't know where I was. It was a great adventure in exploration, with high hopes at the beginning and self-doubt along the way. Of course, the trip was not randomly chosen. I believed, as Columbus did, that success lay at the end of the journey, and many times it did. Unlike Columbus, however, when I got to my destination I didn't always recognize the fact that I had arrived and get off the boat. Sometimes I let the trade carry me right back to where I started without ever claiming the paradise I had seen only from the quarterdeck of my ship.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThen I discovered volume and the part it plays in technical analysis. It is better to have a good idea about where you are going before you set sail. Adverse winds or poor navigation may blow you back to land and wreck you on the rocks from time to time. Such is the nature of all speculation, but a well-charted course provides a higher likelihood of success.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThere are many ways to chart that course, however. The Polynesians used stick charts to figure out where they were. The Vikings had no way of calculating longitude and had to trust latitude and luck. Today, celestial navigation has been all but replaced by satellite positioning or Loran. Each improvement has made it easier for the helmsman to know where he is and where he is going and, unlike Columbus, know when he has arrived. So too with technical analysis.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133839241585,"sku":"\\V08\\C09\\RIGHTON.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_26c7e6c9-221b-4169-baa8-748189d94601.jpg?v=1739653849"},{"product_id":"v08-c04-predm-pdf","title":"V.8:4 (152-154): Predicting market order with the Delta phenomenon by J. Welles Wilder","description":"Predicting market order with the Delta phenomenon by J. Welles Wilder\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDoes each market have an underlying order that makes it predictable?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe answer is yes. That order makes a riskless trading strategy possible.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Delta phenomenon shows the underlying order of the market, and zero-coupon government bonds are the vehicles to buy and sell to take advantage of the predictable sequences. You can't lose because even if you bought the bonds at their exact 30-year high, you can hold them to maturity and collect about 10% interest on your money.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat is the Delta phenomenon? Every freely traded market has its own particular order, which can be calculated as far in the past or as far in the future as you may want to go. This order, which I call Delta, is relative only to time. Delta dates predict when the market highs and lows will occur, but it cannot predict how high or how low the market will be at these turning points.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Delta order is applicable in five different time frames. For example, the shortest timeframe predicts, on average, two turning points per day. The longest time frame predicts, on average, about one turning point per year. As for strategy, sometime during the month that an arrow points upward, I buy, and sometime during the month that an arrow points downward, I sell.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133840945521,"sku":"\\V08\\C04\\PREDM.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_64ab5c16-55c3-4cc8-ad0a-10d8614b3dcf.jpg?v=1739653901"},{"product_id":"v08-c05-bcompl-pdf","title":"V.8:5 (195-196): %B complements on-balance volume by Joseph Barics","description":"%B complements on-balance volume by Joseph Barics\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWilliams' on-balance volume, or WAD, by itself isn't always a clear indicator of a bottom. To better observe supply and demand, I combine WAD with the percentage of buying for the day, or %B, on a high-low-close graph. Unlike WAD, %B is calculated only from price data, and so, often indicates an imminent price turnaround or other price actions following a price minimum.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133841043825,"sku":"\\V08\\C05\\BCOMPL.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_7cb75f4b-fc77-4f60-bc3a-3e8fa4d1c78e.jpg?v=1739653904"},{"product_id":"v08-c11-tradt-pdf","title":"V.8:11 (410-412): A trader's tale: Post-crash profits with fast action by Patrick D. Bosold","description":"A trader's tale: Post-crash profits with fast action by Patrick D. Bosold\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor most people, commodity trading means getting on an adrenalin high at the start of the trading day, scrutinizing the markets intensely, making bold buy or sell decisions under pressure and executing lightning-fast trades to make a profitespecially during a market crash. But that's not Hal Masover's philosophy. At least, not most of the time.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMasover, a broker in Fairfield, IA, is of the opinion that successful commodity trading comes from patience, study and carefully considered action. \"But once in a while,\" he adds, \"I get knocked over by a trading opportunity with a brief time window. Under these circumstances, fast action can make the difference between a quick profit and an opportunity lost.\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMasover saw a window of opportunity open on Friday, October 13, 1989, a day most investors thought was more like a slamming door. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 200 points that day. Many of Masover's clients and associates thought a harrowing sequel to October 19, 1987, was in store. But Masover remembered Treasury bonds rallied sharply right after the Black Monday crash. On October 20 and again on October 21,1987, T-bonds rallied to touch their daily limit of three basis points. On October 22, the December 1987 T-bonds continued to rally, closing at just three ticks below their upper limit. He calculated that an investment in those T-bonds would have produced a profit of $8,906.25 per contract in three days.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133841076593,"sku":"\\V08\\C11\\TRADT.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_68864e0f-2348-4cfe-8fae-8e19f059ed82.jpg?v=1739653906"}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/collections\/volume-8-1990-18.gif?v=1739676783","url":"https:\/\/shop.traders.com\/collections\/articles-volume-8.oembed","provider":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities","version":"1.0","type":"link"}