{"title":"Volume 13 (1995)","description":"\u003cp\u003eBrowse Volume articles by issue:\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:12px;\"\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-02?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 2 February\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-03?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 3 March\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-04?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 4 April\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-05?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 5 May\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-06?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 6 June\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-07?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 7 July\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-08?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 8 August\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-09?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 9 September\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-10?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 10 October\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-11?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 11 November\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-12?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 12 December\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-13?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 13 Quick Scans\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-14?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 14 Product Reviews\u003c\/a\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","products":[{"product_id":"v13-c07-log-pdf","title":"V.13:07 (288-291): Logarithmic Point \u0026 Figure Charting by William G.S. Brown","description":"V.13:07 (288-291): Logarithmic Point \u0026amp; Figure Charting by William G.S. Brown\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTraditional point \u0026amp; figure charting is one of the oldest methods known in technical analysis. The technique is unique because it only records the direction and change in price while ignoring the passage of time. But it has certain disadvantages; for example, it is virtually impossible to adjust a point \u0026amp; figure plot for stock splits or dividends without replotting the whole chart. Making each box represent a fixed percentage change - a logarithmic scale - has several advantages. Here's what they are.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePoint \u0026amp; figure charting, one of the oldest methods used in technical analysis, was first used in the late 1800s.\nUnlike most other chart-based methods of analysis, time per se does not appear on point \u0026amp; figure charting. In most cases, the price movements shown on the charts cover a longer elapsed time than a time-based chart of the same size.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMaintaining a point \u0026amp; figure chart requires writing a series of Xs or Os in a column. No other action is required. This is simpler than drawing graphical, time-based charts based on, say, high, low and closing values - especially when the charts are maintained by hand.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe simple construction means that even the less-dedicated investor may be willing to devote the time necessary to maintain the charts. The long historical overview that is the result provides the investment perspective needed for investment decisions.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFinally, common point \u0026amp; figure chart formations have been identified along with their interpretation and use as trading indicators. The effectiveness of these formations as buy and sell signals have been analyzed with some surprisingly consistent results.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133794152817,"sku":"\\V13\\C07\\LOG.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_f17078a4-2e43-4aa3-9b90-b461c289cf18.jpg?v=1739652682"},{"product_id":"v13-c07-sidetra-pdf","title":"V.13:07 (280): SIDEBAR: Trading bands by Bruce Faber","description":"V.13:07 (280): SIDEBAR: Trading bands by Bruce Faber\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTrading bands, or envelopes, are used as visible boundaries that contain the price movement of a security. A sell signal may be generated when the price hits the upper band and a buy signal may be generated when the lower band is touched.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOriginally, trading bands were drawn by hand, using smoothed waves that coincided with the highest highs and lowest highs for the upper band, and the highest lows and lowest lows for the lower band. Using these waves as a pattern, the bands could be projected to indicate where prices might go.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133796217201,"sku":"\\V13\\C07\\SIDETRA.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_487b9c0b-d330-40fa-9bb0-2689ba498f87.jpg?v=1739652726"},{"product_id":"v13-c04-force-pdf","title":"V.13:4 (180-183): The Force Index by John A. Sarkett","description":"The Force Index by John A. Sarkett\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere's a little-known indicator that combines price change and volume to create a short-term and an intermediate-term trading tool.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLike ocean waves, prices have an ebb and a flow. Once in a while, however, a huge shift in price and volume hits the market with the impact of a tidal wave, setting the stage for follow-through price movement. One particular indicator, the force index, measures and depicts this major event more vividly than any other. Developed by Alexander Elder, it is presented at length in his latest book, Trading for a Living.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe force index focuses on three key pieces of market information: price change, extent of price change and trading volume. The force of every move is defined by its direction, distance and volume. If prices close higher, the force is positive; if it is lower, then the force is negative. The greater the change in prices, the greater the force. The greater the volume, the greater the force. That's the simple concept behind the force index.\nLike other oscillators, the index works best if it is smoothed with an exponential moving average (EMA). The index smoothed with a short EMA - for example, two days - helps pinpoint entry and exit points. The force index smoothed with a longer EMA - for example, 13 days - shows major change in the force of bulls and bears.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133797364081,"sku":"\\V13\\C04\\FORCE.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_96afb793-1b7f-4cc7-8a9d-db757445144a.jpg?v=1739652763"},{"product_id":"v13-c08-sidemon-pdf","title":"V.13:08 (352-358): Sidebar: Money Management","description":"MONEY MANAGEMENT\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThere are two common ways of trading an account. The way an account will be traded in real-time should be the\nsame as the way the system was historically tested. Otherwise, the analysis will be incorrect.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133803590001,"sku":"\\V13\\C08\\SIDEMON.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_248b183b-e518-486f-82e0-acfc5b67ec97.jpg?v=1739652880"},{"product_id":"v13-c08-using-pdf","title":"V.13:08 (332-336): Using Value and Technical Analysis by Thom Hartle","description":"V.13:08 (332-336): Using Value and Technical Analysis by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThere are various ways to select what stocks to trade. Here's a method that combines fundamental value and technical analysis as a way to select a stock, and a real-world trading situation on which it was applied.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\nEvery trader has a limited amount of capital to put to work in a sea of stocks. The trader, much like a fisherman, casts a net over the water, culling for the keepers and discarding the little ones. In trading, the technique is referred to as screening , creating a list of stocks that qualify for further study and then implementing a profitable strategy on those that remain.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI explained such a strategy in my article in the January 1995 STOCKS \u0026amp; COMMODITIES, \"Relative dividend yield and technical analysis.\" To recap: Calculate the ratio of the company's dividend yield relative to the Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 500 yield. Next, look for stocks that currently have a ratio meeting the criteria as described in Relative Dividend Yield by Anthony E. Spare and Nancy C. Tengler and draw up a list of those. Third, look over this list of stocks for those undergoing a technical change in the trend from down to up. Those are the ones to own. In my January 1995 article, I showed a trade I had executed in early 1994 using this strategy.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis strategy appealed to me because there was an overlap of fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The fundamental analysis used a concept of undervalue for a company based on a historically high yield relative to the yield of the S\u0026amp;P 500. Often, these are mature companies, well known to the financial community and the investing public. If I saw positive technical evidence of a change in the trend, I surmised I would see news following that the company had put its problems, be they short or long term in nature, behind them. I concluded that the company in turn would begin to show up on buy lists, bringing in new investors, driving the price of the stock higher as the word spread about the improved outlook for the company.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis concept of using the dividend yield of a company as a proxy for when a stock is low and high struck me as being a useful screen for stocks. Then, in the August 1994 S\u0026amp;C, I interviewed Geraldine Weiss, editor of the stock advisory newsletter Investment Quality Trends (IQT). During the interview, Weiss explained her method of screening stocks and classifying them into one of four categories: ...","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133805064561,"sku":"\\V13\\C08\\USING.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_2b888743-f994-477e-8f30-5281bc362183.jpg?v=1739652922"},{"product_id":"v13-c09-sidesho-pdf","title":"V.13:09 (381): SIDEBAR: The short-range oscillator","description":"THE SHORT-RANGE OSCILLATOR\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe short-range oscillator combines daily New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) market statistics with the daily closing\nprice of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to provide indications of overbought and oversold market\nconditions. Sidebar Figure 1 is a Microsoft Excel 4.0 spreadsheet demonstrating the results of the formulas. The first\nstep is to add the day's number of advancing stocks to 50% of the day's number of unchanged stocks and express\nthis sum as a percentage of the total issues traded. This step is calculated in column E. Enter the following formula\ninto cell E2 and copy down:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e...","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133805719921,"sku":"\\V13\\C09\\SIDESHO.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_22477557-781d-48e4-b316-3ef714928f10.jpg?v=1739652945"},{"product_id":"v13-c01-sidecci-pdf","title":"V.13:01 (46-51): Sidebar: Defining The Commodity Channel Index by D.W. Davies","description":"Sidebar: Defining The Commodity Channel Index by D.W. Davies\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePresented here are the ins and outs of the commodity channel index, as defined by creator Donald Lambert and modified by the author.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe commodity channel index (CCI) can be calculated using any lookback period chosen by the trader. The Excel spreadsheet shown here is an 11-period CCI for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The first step is to calculate the daily typical price. This is the high, low and close added together and divided by three.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133810307441,"sku":"\\V13\\C01\\SIDECCI.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_85b77db0-79e0-4b27-b5a0-7ab783c7f597.jpg?v=1739653028"},{"product_id":"v13-c04-intervw-pdf","title":"V.13:4 (167-173): Charles D. Kirkpatrick II of Kirkpatrick \u0026 Co. by Thom Hartle","description":"Interview: Charles D. Kirkpatrick II of Kirkpatrick \u0026amp; Co. by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCharles Kirkpatrick II is not only a market researcher and money manager, but he also holds the distinction of being the first recipient of the Charles H. Dow Award for technical analysts. This award, which is cosponsored by Barron's, the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and Dow Jones Telerate, is based on the best article submitted to the MTA. Stocks \u0026amp; Commodities spoke with Kirkpatrick about the research that led him to his award-winning theories, how he selects stocks, his thoughts on risk management and more.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: W hen did your interest in the markets begin?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: My interest in the markets began when I was a teenager. Back in the 1950s, my father was a fund manager with Fidelity; he managed the Puritan Fund as well as other funds. Back then, Fidelity was one of the first major fund management firms that used technical analysis, so as a teenager I would help my father keep his charts up to date.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: With that kind of background, did you go to work for a fund right after college?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: No, I didn't. I went into the Army after I graduated from Harvard. After I got out of the service, though, my first job\nwas with Brown Brothers Harriman. After that, I left to go work for Tony Tabell at Walston \u0026amp; Co. Tony's father, as\nyou know, was Edmund Tabell, a very famous technician, best known for his point \u0026amp; figure work. They had done technical studies for my father, which is how I first met them. At Walston, among my various duties was to try and improve technical methods for selecting stocks.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: What did you find?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: One area of technical analysis that I looked at was volume. The traditional point \u0026amp; figure method does not use volume, so that was one area I tried to incorporate, but it turned out to be fruitless. There was nothing I could find that was a quantifiable use of volume, at least on a day-to-day basis for trading stocks. Since then, after I did all that research, I've been very skeptical of daily volume statistics and indicators that use daily volume for stocks.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133810340209,"sku":"\\V13\\C04\\INTERVW.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_dd6e9d61-13ec-4d22-8f47-c1795981e19d.jpg?v=1739653031"},{"product_id":"v13-c04-sidecor-pdf","title":"V.13:4 (141-145): Sidebar: Correlation Coefficient.","description":"Sidebar: Correlation Coefficient by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe correlation coefficient, denoted as r , is an index that measures the degree and direction of a linear association between two variables. The values of the correlation coefficient can range from 1 to -1. If you were to measure the correlation of two variables such as the weekly closing price of a stock compared with the weekly closing price of the Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 500 over a specific period, the correlation coefficient will indicate the direction and degree of the relationship between the two.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133810372977,"sku":"\\V13\\C04\\SIDECOR.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_e6b98b6c-a763-4d6d-bc18-1feae8c9a6fb.jpg?v=1739653033"},{"product_id":"v13-c01-sideris-pdf","title":"V.13:01 (31-36): Sidebar: Risk of Ruin","description":"Sidebar: Risk of Ruin\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis brief sidebar discusses the risk of ruin- an estimate that indicates the probability that a trader will eventually lose all his trading capital- and the probability from zero to 100% that a trader will eventually lose all of his trading capital.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133811487089,"sku":"\\V13\\C01\\SIDERIS.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_84d416ff-9e2f-4928-8271-e34d1cf052ef.jpg?v=1739653052"},{"product_id":"v13-c06-sideavg-pdf","title":"V.13:06: (251): SIDEBAR: Averaging Lag and the EMA Constant","description":"AVERAGING LAG AND THE EMA CONSTANT\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe equation to compute an exponential moving average (EMA) is: ...\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePicture a function that increases by 1 for each new day. Then, on the generalized i th day the function will have a\nvalue of I . Assume the EMA lag is K . ...","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133811519857,"sku":"\\V13\\C06\\SIDEAVG.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_34379807-2b5b-4aad-98e0-ea7cf69d4bc7.jpg?v=1739653054"},{"product_id":"v13-c05-forcast-pdf","title":"V.13:5: (223-226): Forecasting T-Bill Rates With A Neural Net by Milam Aiken","description":"Forecasting T-Bill Rates With A Neural Net by Milam Aiken\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHave you ever wondered how accurate the consensus estimates of interest rates were from the top US economists? How about how accurate those economists are in comparison with neural net technology? A recent Forbes magazine article noted that three-month Treasury bill futures more accurately predict interest rates a year in advance than do forecasts made through annual surveys of approximately 50 of the nation's top economists. In addition to being more accurate, these forecasts were more readily available because data on T-bill futures are published daily in many financial periodicals. The comparison between a market forecast and the expert forecast intrigued me, so I decided to use a neural network to forecast T-bill rates for a comparison of all three forecasts. Here's how a neural network to forecast these rates can be developed using two commercially available programs.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHOW CAN RATES BE PREDICTED?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eUsing the Business Cycle Indicators (BCI) software, I was able to view how different data series compared with three-month T-bill rates (BCI has more than 250 data series from which to choose). Many of the series appeared to have no correlation at all, were coincident or even lagging. Most of the financial data series (bonds, interest rates and so forth) were highly correlated but coincident (changing along with the T-bill yield) and had no predictive ability. However, the three leading economic indicator series and money supply (M1) often turned before T-bill yields, giving a high degree of predictive value. The leading economic indicators are the Department of Commerce Leading\nEconomic Indicator Composite Index (LEI), the Center for International Business Cycle Research Short Leading Composite Index, and the CIBCR Long Leading Composite Index.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133812535665,"sku":"\\V13\\C05\\FORCAST.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_fbee1468-86ab-4510-96bf-db1f65cde144.jpg?v=1739653077"},{"product_id":"v13-c02-statist-pdf","title":"V.13:2 (91-94): Statistically Positioned Trend Channels by Bob McCullough","description":"Statistically Positioned Trend Channels by Bob McCullough\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTrend channels are a method by which to identify the outer boundaries of a trend. A number of methods are based on the technician's judgment to identify the components of a trend channel. Here's one method that reduces the need for seasoned judgment by using two statistical methods to determine the components of a trend channel.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTrendlines are among the oldest and most useful tools in technical analysis. However, drawing them can sometimes be a very subjective process, and frequently, they simply don't work when an analyst is trying to find price support and resistance levels. Statistically positioned trend channels can serve the same need as trendlines. Frequently, these channels are more powerful in helping an analyst locate support and resistance levels. They are also useful in helping a market technician anticipate significant trend changes.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSTATISTICAL POSITIONING\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFigure 1, a recent daily bar chart of LSI Logic [LSI], one of the hottest stocks of 1994, illustrates how a statistically positioned trend channel is drawn. Although LSI has been a strong performer, it has had some pullbacks. Considering this, it would have been useful to anticipate when these pullbacks were about to begin and when they had run their course. This could have been accomplished using trend channels.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133813748081,"sku":"\\V13\\C02\\STATIST.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_f28b4914-3528-4472-aecb-612eac730ae7.jpg?v=1739653102"},{"product_id":"v13-c07-using-pdf","title":"V.13:07 (282-287): Using Filtered Waves for Trend Analysis by Scott Barrie","description":"V.13:07 (282-287): Using Filtered Waves for Trend Analysis by Scott Barrie\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFiltering is simply processing price data to remove extraneous, noisy, information. What's left after filtering can be considered to be the more important and perhaps tradable information. Here's a method to filter price data for reliable patterns as well as some suggested trading plans.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTechnical analysts use past market behavior as a guidepost for future behavior. By studying the past, an analyst can glean patterns that can be used as the basis for trades. The challenge is determining which past behaviors are appropriate to examine and then building trading schemes on those patterns. Here are the methods I employ to discern patterns, and the trading schemes I use in the Treasury bond futures market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo compare present price action with the past, we must examine three facets of price behavior: first, magnitude, or the difference between starting and ending values; second, the duration, or how long it takes to move from beginning to end; and finally, the path, or which direction, up or down, from start to finish. The best process I have found for breaking down moves is the filtered wave method discussed by Arthur Merrill in his Filtered Waves, Basic Theory.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFiltering is the process of ignoring some data to discern a more telling picture from the remaining data: Ignore all moves less than a certain percentage, x%, and only look at moves greater than x%. I use a 1% filter to create a makeshift actuarial table of all absolute price movements greater than 1% (Figure 1). By using filters, I solve two of the three problems - magnitude and path. Then I use observed duration of the historical moves as my timing method, looking for moves that are overdue according to past average duration.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLAYOUT\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBefore I go into the results of my analysis, these are the steps I used to analyze the T-bond market. The data was from Technical Tools daily data for the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) 30-year Treasury bond contract, from January 1, 1979, to December 17, 1993. I exported the data and used a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet to analyze it. I only used the December contract from the beginning of the contract year to contract expiration; for example, for the December 1979 contract, I used the first trading day in January 1979 until the contract expired. In Excel, I floored all percentage waves to the nearest 1%, meaning that all moves from 1% to 1.99% were grouped together as a 1% wave. This process was performed for all moves greater than 1% all the way to 7%, while all moves greater than 8% were lumped together. The same process was applied for negative waves. The results of the data I analyzed appear in Figure 1. The information that follows is illustrated there:","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133813813617,"sku":"\\V13\\C07\\USING.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_9ffc2e79-d083-4e96-951c-865839c7c5f7.jpg?v=1739653105"},{"product_id":"v13-c04-modifyv-pdf","title":"V.13:4 (174-179): Modifying the Volatility Index by S. Jack Karczewski","description":"Modifying the Volatility Index by S. Jack Karczewski\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere's the scoop on the volatility index as an analytical tool for identifying extremes in market sentiment.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEvery trader and investor recognizes that the stock market has some degree of volatility because clearly, the market does not move in a straight line. However, traders with a certain amount of market experience eventually come to view market volatility as both a positive and a negative. It can be seen as a negative, because volatility is an unknown and unknowable measure of risk - how quickly will a market adjust to the new state of economic affairs? - and it can be seen as a positive, because every investment and every trade relies on that very same price movement or volatility to realize a profit.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe volatility of a stock or a futures contract is more important to traders in the options market. The price movement of the underlying instrument from which the option derives its price determines the profitability of the option's contract at expiration. It follows, then, that the price of an option reflects options traders' combined expectations of where the underlying instrument may be when the options contract expires.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf you study the options markets, you can learn what the options markets' prices imply about the market's future. This implied volatility is a popular topic to traders; in fact, there is an index based on the implied volatility concept, created and disseminated during the day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), called the volatility index. This index is the implied volatility of a group of Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 100 index options.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133815517553,"sku":"\\V13\\C04\\MODIFYV.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ed73f84f-1754-4470-848d-02a72c77a869.jpg?v=1739653164"},{"product_id":"v13-c01-quantif-pdf","title":"V.13:01 (43-45): Quantifying Your Markets by Thom Hartle","description":"Quantifying Your Markets by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAfter you've gained some experience with trading, you'll begin to notice that the market you trade has some typical characteristics. Have you ever considered quantifying them? Here are some ideas on the subject.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBuy low. Sell high. Limit your losses. These are all tried-and-true trading axioms, all often stated but rarely quantified. So what does \"low\" or \"high\" mean ? What about that old chestnut, \"limiting your losses\"? Are there really ways to intelligently limit your losses? Think about this: Experts recommend that you place stop-loss orders in the market at price levels that are not obvious, avoiding chart points such as under the previous day's low. So how do you do that, anyway? How can you answer some of these questions?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLet's look at a simple charting example. Consider Figure 1, which shows the Treasury bond market from June 6 to July 27, 1994. This futures contract fell more than five points until July 11 and then rallied more than three points. After peaking on July 20, the price fell back toward 102. If the market continued to slip and fell to 101-29, it reach a 50% retracement of the July 11th to July 20th rally. This may be a buying opportunity. Buying a market after it has retraced 50% of a previous rally is a simple guideline for trading.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133816074609,"sku":"\\V13\\C01\\QUANTIF.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_d682cd16-56fe-4eb9-90d5-6948857a90b4.jpg?v=1739653187"},{"product_id":"v13-c06-rangein-pdf","title":"V.13:06: (238-242): The Range Indicator by Jack L. Weinberg","description":"V.13:06: (238-242): The Range Indicator by Jack L. Weinberg\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere's a new indicator based on the change in a day's trading range as evidence of the start of a new trend in a market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMarkets tend to trade in relatively tight price ranges most of the time; therefore, low daily ranges indicate trading ranges. Prices move to reach toward new levels for a new trading range when a fundamental change has occurred in the supply\/demand balance for that commodity. A dramatic change in the daily range relative to the interday ranges indicates that a change in the fundamentals may be present and may be a significant event. Such a fundamental change is usually, but not always, accompanied by an increase in the daily trading volume for that commodity.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA classic example of such a situation occurred on August 19, 1993, in the September 1993 yen contract. That day, the central bank of Japan tried to depress the value of the currency to prevent it from going above the 100 yen per dollar level. The resulting dramatic increase in the daily range (and the accompanying increase in volume) can be seen in Figure 1.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIDENTIFYING SITUATIONS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMany indicators and rules have been proposed to identify these situations. Another key area of interest has been the attempt to identify the direction of price after a significant change in the daily range to interday range.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne of the first to try was J. Welles Wilder in his New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems . In that work, he proposed the use of a new indicator he called the average true range. This indicator took into account the issue of limit up and\/or limit down days and their effect on the range calculations.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133816369521,"sku":"\\V13\\C06\\RANGEIN.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_fbcf8f16-fe4d-48fc-a7ab-ae20a87a5b06.jpg?v=1739653201"},{"product_id":"v13-c08-intervw-pdf","title":"V.13:08 (359-365): The Nature of Risk: Justin Mamis and the Meaning of Life by Thom Hartle","description":"V.13:08 (359-365): The Nature of Risk: Justin Mamis and the Meaning of Life by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLooking back on decades of market activity can give anyone a certain perspective, and Justin Mamis, who writes the Mamis Letter, a newsletter for Hancock Institutional Equity Services that is a joint venture of Tucker Anthony and Sutro \u0026amp; Co., certainly has the experience to speak about. He became interested in the stock market in the post-Korean War period, and in the ensuing four decades has seen tops and bottoms, been an executive at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), worked in a specialist firm, traded options on the American Stock Exchange (ASE), seen the development of trading instruments that were unheard of when he started out, and experienced - and not\nnecessarily to his liking - the introduction of a tool that is nearly ubiquitous today, the personal computer. STOCKS \u0026amp; COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle spoke with Justin Mamis on May 26, 1995, about how the markets, money managers and technical analysis itself have changed over the years.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: When did your interest in the markets begin?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: I started the way a lot of people do - knowing nothing and having no real interest in the stock market, but having just a little bit of money. A broker put me in stocks that went down and I thought that there had to be a better way to invest in the market than that. So I looked for information about trading, and one step I took was answering an ad in Barron's to subscribe to John Magee's newsletter. I read his newsletters and I read his Technical Analysis of Stock Trends , and I even talked to him on the phone a couple of times. And that's how I got into charting.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: When was this?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: This was the mid-1950s, right after the Korean War. I became more interested in the stock market, so after a while I got a job as a retail broker on Wall Street. All I knew at that point was charting, and I knew I was a writer, so my goal was to do some writing about the market. That's not the right combination for a retail salesman, so that job didn't work out. Then I went to work for the NYSE. I became the assistant director of the floor department in charge of investigations.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133816402289,"sku":"\\V13\\C08\\INTERVW.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_9925adaa-0c85-41fb-ade2-a74877ecb7fc.jpg?v=1739653204"},{"product_id":"v13-c07-signal-pdf","title":"V.13:07 (275-281): Signaling Change with Projection Bands by Mel Widner, Ph.D","description":"V.13:07 (275-281): Signaling Change with Projection Bands by Mel Widner, Ph.D\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eProjection bands, a new method using trading bands, projects market data forward along the data trend with the maxima and minima of the projections defining the band. The method provides another means of signaling potential changes for market direction relative to the trend.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBuy low and sell high\" is the trader's tenet, and as a result, indicators that determine when prices may be low or high are very popular. Trading bands, which are envelopes drawn about price histories, are one such set of indicators designed to measure relative high and low prices. The envelopes are used to determine when prices are high or low relative to the price history.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTrading bands evolved from simple envelope structures roughly sketched by hand to percentage boundaries about moving averages to statistical methods - for example, Bollinger bands - that are adaptive to changing market conditions. The latter method captures the average movement of the market by the moving average, and the randomness and cyclic behavior by the variation around this average. When the price is several standard deviations from the moving average, then it is at an extreme condition, a situation that often signals a reversal or sometimes a breakout. When combined with confirming information, buy and sell signals can be generated.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eChannel methods are an example of other methods with certain band characteristics. Channels are identified by connecting peaks and bottoms with straight lines that can be projected as a boundary around a selected price history. The rationale for this approach is that markets frequently move in a general direction with variations about this general movement between short-term support and resistance levels.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSignals associated with touching channel boundaries or breaking out of the channel pattern are widely used and well documented. A recent STOCKS \u0026amp; COMMODITIES article by Bob McCullough provides a quantitative means to define channel boundaries using least-squares fit analysis, noting that the channel boundaries often follow the same slope as the fit. Channel methods require that the analyst must make some selections, such as start and end times. In\naddition, long periods are often required to define the channel, and it is sometimes too late to take action once the pattern is clear.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133816762737,"sku":"\\V13\\C07\\SIGNAL.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_2b35d902-beb7-4cb1-8400-8d410c646324.jpg?v=1739653219"},{"product_id":"v13-c05-trading-pdf","title":"V.13:5 (209-215): Trading Multiple Time Frames by Gene Carey","description":"Trading Multiple Time Frames by Gene Carey\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWaiting until the end of the day for a trading signal may be an unnecessary delay for your trading system. How can we get around it? Here's one trader's method of improving a system by using more than one time period for market signals.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eUsing different time frames in developing a computerized trading system can increase your profits substantially, whether you're a short-term or long-term trader. Some traders still visually analyze different time frames of data to spot familiar patterns, but others have learned that using a personal computer to perform these tasks can be more efficient. Here's one technique in which the computer may be put to use to maximize profits by utilizing data in at least two different time frames. You may use this by utilizing either longer-term or shorter-term time-frame bar charts than your present systems employ.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSuch a stratagem may be used on most any market in any two (or more) time frames, and it is also appealing as it may be applied to most any bar chart study, whether it is a simple indicator or a complex system. The only limitations to this technique are those that may be imposed by the software and\/or hardware used.\nThe technique is based on a simple principle: larger time-frame price bars are made up of smaller time-frame price bars. For the long-term trader, this means that much greater resolution on price activity is possible, and for the short-term trader, this means that the larger picture may be kept in focus by the computerized system being used.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133819416945,"sku":"\\V13\\C05\\TRADING.PDF","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_2a34a1b5-ea1d-4ab5-9fea-5c34cf853339.jpg?v=1739653318"},{"product_id":"v13-c10-identif-pdf","title":"V.13:10 (418-424): Identifying Powerful Breakouts Early by Tushar S. Chande","description":"TRADING TECHNIQUES Identifying Powerful Breakouts\nEarly by Tushar S. Chande\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHigh-powered breakouts occur with a strong surge of momentum in the direction of the price change. Such breakouts may be short-lived, however, occurring\ntoward the latter stages of a long trend. Sometimes, such breakouts signal the end of one trend and the beginning of another. In either case, identifying such market action early is likely to be highly profitable. Here, Contributing Editor Tushar Chande shows how you can use his original indicators, VIDYA and the dynamic\nmomentum index, to find big market moves.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTaking advantage of a major breakout can be one of the most satisfying of all trades. However, there is no consistent definition of what a breakout is. Many price breakouts will not be decisive, because the market will enter another consolidation phase or reenter the previous region of price congestion; such weak breakouts occur when the markets lack strength. An even more difficult scenario for a trader is when markets break out in one direction with good momentum, only to reverse in a few days, and then break out in the opposite direction with even greater\nmomentum. In such cases, the trader should reverse the initial trade but may lack the courage to do so, while others may simply be stopped out.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGiven the ever-changing nature of markets, is there a consistent framework that can be used to analyze breakouts? There may be. Combining a variable-length moving average (VIDYA) and a variable-length momentum oscillator (dynamic momentum index, or DMI) may help identify high-powered breakouts early. (For more information on VIDYA, see sidebar, \"Variable-length moving average.\")\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA combination of VIDYA and DMI may be used to identify when prices have broken out and when the breakout has occurred with great strength. To do so, a 1% band around VIDYA may be optimal. Whenever the market closes above the upper band or below the lower band, we can assume that prices have broken out in that direction. A close above the upper band implies that prices will move higher, while a close below the lower band implies prices will move lower. A more conservative criterion could be called for, such as multiple closes beyond the 1% bands, or insisting that the low be above the upper band (or high below the lower band) to recognize a breakout.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWe can use the DMI to measure momentum, averring that the DMI rise above 70 or fall below 30 to confirm the presence of a powerful breakout. Once these criteria are met, you can contemplate a trade, plan for a possible failure of the breakout and hope for a massive follow through.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe ideas underlying VIDYA and DMI were discussed previously in Stocks \u0026amp; Commodities articles as well as The New Technical Trader. Both indicators adjust their length of calculation using a market volatility index. With\nVIDYA, this means that the average moves faster when the volatility increases and it slows down when volatility\ndecreases. The DMI is a variable-length relative strength index (RSI); its effective length decreases when volatility increases, and the effective length increases when volatility decreases. If we use a 14-day RSI as reference, the effective length of DMI varies from as low as five days to as high as 30 days.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133819941233,"sku":"\\V13\\C10\\IDENTIF.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_4f1c912c-9a7b-45e3-91db-3e682332cdb1.jpg?v=1739653321"},{"product_id":"v13-c05-sidecan-pdf","title":"V.13:5 (198): SIDEBAR: The candlestick method","description":"Sidebar: The candlestick method\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe candlestick chart can be used to interpret the movement of markets from intraday out to a monthly chart format. This sidebar provides an illustration of the candlestick body.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133827150193,"sku":"\\V13\\C05\\SIDECAN.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_1ddb9d7d-7b47-48e2-8dee-98f17db22c66.jpg?v=1739653453"},{"product_id":"v13-c02-leverag-pdf","title":"V.13:2 (73-80): Leverage and Equities by J.M. Malley","description":"Leverage and Equities by J.M. Malley\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere's how to find the appropriate leverage for stock trading and researching leverage with a simulated portfolio.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDeep discount brokerages are competing actively for customers, reducing commissions drastically and cutting margin rates. Obviously, the direct savings are valuable to active traders. Less obviously, the reduced fees could alter a trader's use of leverage. In this article I'm going to develop a technique for analyzing the use of leverage in common stock trading. I'm also going to demonstrate that reduced trading costs could make leverage attractive and profitable for the small trader. And finally, I'm going to show you how to use your own track record to make your own decision.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133829935473,"sku":"\\V13\\C02\\LEVERAG.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_dc5cb5b0-cf35-43bc-aa9c-850d4bcdaa0d.jpg?v=1739653517"},{"product_id":"v13-c09-sidecal-pdf","title":"V.13:09 (377): SIDEBAR: Calculating noise level","description":"CALCULATING NOISE LEVEL\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSome of the other methods I use to calculate noise level (NL) are: ...\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ewhere P is the averaging period for the daily range; the article's Figure 3 is a plot of ADR j .\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAnother method uses the average daily range and three standard deviations of the daily range: ...\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe next method uses the length of the price path data file (ADR j ), the lookback period (P ) and the length of the\noriginal pricing data file (M ): ...","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133830164849,"sku":"\\V13\\C09\\SIDECAL.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ce36212e-b74d-4d47-879e-bed70408e599.jpg?v=1739653520"},{"product_id":"v13-c01-identif-pdf","title":"V.13:01 (16-22): Identifying Trades With The Option Premium Ratio by Christopher Cadbury","description":"Identifying Trades With The Option Premium Ratio by Christopher Cadbury\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat is the option premium ratio? Simply, the option premium ratio is the ratio of price premiums on puts relative to price premiums on calls. It covers all listed equity options.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAs explained in previous articles, this ratio has some remarkable characteristics relating to momentum. I have found that significant market rallies follow the positive momentum supplied by several consecutive days of gains or unchanged values in the ratio and by several consecutive daily gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at low levels in the ratio. DJIA declines are established by the negative momentum of several straight days of losses in the ratio and several straight days of losses in the DJIA at high values in the ratio.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe option premium ratio is the fifth psychological variable found on the page of General Market Indicators in Investor's Business Daily. Since 1986, the ratio has ranged from 0.03 to 1.74 each day. Except for bear markets and rampaging bull market legs, the values of the option premium ratio have remained between 0.29 and 1.18. The median values for the ratio have been far less than the mean over the last seven years, staying in the low to mid-0.60s.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133830623601,"sku":"\\V13\\C01\\IDENTIF.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_5730ee52-6048-4277-baeb-57fcc5cba457.jpg?v=1739653540"},{"product_id":"v13-c03-trendln-pdf","title":"V.13:3 (132-134): Trendlines by Bruce R. Faber","description":"Trendlines by Bruce R. Faber\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHow do you use trendlines? It's one of the most basic tools of investment analysis, yet it's not explained as clearly as it might. If you're just starting out, here's the scoop. Or if you're an old pro, here's a refresher.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe trend is your friend.\" It's one of the oldest investment adages, not to mention one of the truest. Determining what the trend is and, even more important, when it has changed is the most basic of all determinations in investment strategy. Trendlines are one of the simplest ways to discover what the trend is doing. Many successful traders use the trendline as a favored tool when it comes to the technical considerations of when to buy or sell.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe trendline's popularity may stem from its deceptive simplicity. A trendline is nothing more than a straight line, and to draw a straight line, there must be at least two points. In drawing a trendline, the first of these two points is either the highest high or lowest low, while the second point, respectively, is the lowest high prior to the lowest low, or the highest low prior to the highest high. It is imperative that the trendline does not pass through any other price lines between these two points.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133830754673,"sku":"\\V13\\C03\\TRENDLN.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_b944c62b-0ca3-43d9-b41c-71657cb0f963.jpg?v=1739653543"},{"product_id":"v13-c03-eurodlr-pdf","title":"V.13:3 (102-106): Trading the Eurodollar by George Panagakis","description":"Trading the Eurodollar by George Panagakis\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTrading methods don't have to be complex; indeed, they can be very simple. Here's one that will help you trade Eurodollars.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen I was working in the futures industry, I spent most of my free time analyzing the previous 20 years of all the futures markets moves. I became intrigued with the idea of finding market indicators that would allow me to make a living from speculating in the futures markets. After a great deal of study, I succeeded. Some of you are trying to develop your own market indicators, so I will share some mistakes I made in the hope that you will not repeat them. In addition, I will also share with you one of the indicators that I use in the Eurodollar market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTHE ERRORS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMy first mistake: I forgot the four most important letters in any business, KISS (keep it simple, stupid). At first, I\nthought I had to have a complicated mathematical formula to successfully trade in the futures markets, but I quickly realized that all I had to do was develop indicators that would follow the market as it moved up or down. I analyzed every substantial move in every futures market and asked myself what usually happened when the market started to change direction and whether I could count on the market to move the same way in the future.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133831639409,"sku":"\\V13\\C03\\EURODLR.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_71150ac1-f868-44cb-b6eb-602c04df5ff3.jpg?v=1739653580"},{"product_id":"v13-c05-nyse-pdf","title":"V.13:5 (196-199): NYSE Tick Index and Candlesticks by Tim Ord","description":"NYSE Tick Index and Candlesticks by Tim Ord\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe tick index may appear to be one of the simplest of market indicators, but it also offers insight into market psychology. As a stand-alone indicator, the tick index has its place in the technician's toolbox, but combining the tick index with candlestick charting, another technical method for spotting changes in market trends, creates a potent combination.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA wealth of information waits to be discovered in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) tick index. Its strong suit is its simple calculation. At any point, this index represents the number of stocks trading on an uptick minus the number of stocks trading on a downtick. Extreme tick readings of greater than +600 may indicate temporary exhaustion of buying power, while negative tick readings in the territory of 800 or more can point to a selling climax.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI use these readings throughout the day as an indicator for buy and sell decisions, as well as for recognizing the continuation of the prevailing trend. The tick index is broadcast throughout the day from most real-time data vendors, including the stock market tape that can be seen on the bottom of the screen during CNBC's day-time broadcast. The tick index can be enhanced by using technical price pattern recognition, specifically candlestick charts. Although I have used numerous other technical studies, combining the NYSE tick index and candlestick charting creates a reliable indicator for signaling turning points in the stock market.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133831672177,"sku":"\\V13\\C05\\NYSE.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_54cd67a5-434d-4cfe-a788-7dab795a6054.jpg?v=1739653582"},{"product_id":"v13-c01-insync-pdf","title":"V.13:01 (9-13): The Insync Index by Norm North","description":"The Insync Index by Norm North\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere's a method to graphically display the signal status for a group of indicators as well as an algorithm for generating a consensus indicator that shows when these indicators are in sync. The methods described can be used with any group of indicators.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eUsing the presignal concept as a base, the algorithm for creating the Insync index, which is a consensus indicator, is simple and obvious - once you see it. It works consistently well, almost always outperforming its component indicators. A user should be able to implement and test it, to some extent using many of the more comprehensive technical analysis programs available today. Basically, the Insync index shows that when a majority of indicators is in sync, a turning point is near. By using the index as a filter, large databases can be scanned quickly to identify issues that may be about ready to reverse their trend.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOVERCOMING OVERLOAD\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOnly a few years ago, analysts could spend a few hours with their personal computers and favorite software programs and come up with several good candidates for trading from a database of 30 or so stocks, keeping up with their studies on an interactive basis. At present, however, considering the abundance of low-cost technical data available and the speed and capacity of current computers, it is not unreasonable for individual investors to want to search through a database of several thousand stocks to find those that offer the best opportunities. What the investors would like to do is check a wide array of indicators of their choice as well as other criteria before making an investment decision.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe problem: Although the information is available when the investors want it, there's just not enough time to go through it all! Looking at the output of three to four indicators for several hundred issues isn't practical. How does an investor condense the information generated by these indicators into a form that conveys only the pertinent portion of each indicator's output? One way is to create a consensus indicator that essentially represents the output of the component indicators, reducing the analysis time required by a factor of the number of indicators involved.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133832524145,"sku":"\\V13\\C01\\INSYNC.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_c78f6ea8-a713-4159-b774-733dc7645de8.jpg?v=1739653605"},{"product_id":"v13-c06-intervw-pdf","title":"V13:06: (260-268): Perry Kaufman On Market Analysis by Thom Hartle","description":"V13:06: (260-268): Perry Kaufman On Market Analysis by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePerry Kaufman began his career in the field of trading and market research in 1971. Since then, he has been a money manager, consultant and author of six books, including the popular Commodity Trading Systems and\nMethods. His most recent book, Smarter Trading, presents his perspective of the key issues in trading and designing systems. Today, he writes and edits the quarterly report \"Kaufman on Market Analysis,\" which he\npublishes from his farm in Vermont. STOCKS \u0026amp; COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle interviewed Perry Kaufman via telephone on March 28, 1995, about how markets evolve, ways to manage risk, designing a trading system and his views on the use of computers to validate trading strategies.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: Perry, you were one of the first to use computers to develop trading strategies for the markets. How did you get started?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: Back then, the technology wasn't easily accessible and there really wasn't anyone doing computer research. I had the computer background and a company I had formed in 1969 that provided medical billing for Medicare. In late 1970, I was approached by the principals of an options firm to develop a trading strategy to hedge options. These people had contacted IBM and a couple of the larger Wall Street firms about the problem of hedging options risk, but no one would have anything to do with it. They were told it was too specialized, so they searched around for an independent firm to do it. It seemed interesting to me, so we started doing research on the subject. Of course, back then, it was very difficult to even find data for testing ideas.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: So what did you use for data?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: Dunn \u0026amp; Hargitt had the only reliable database at that time, but it still needed some cleaning. We started with that database and a couple of ideas and just kept working at it and eventually developed a program - just in time for the client who had approached us in the first place to go out of business! But along the way we were introduced to other people who wanted trading strategies, and we wound up making it into a business.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133833900401,"sku":"\\V13\\C06\\INTERVW.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ba82c8f8-7398-4d3f-a2e0-540a9322ff65.jpg?v=1739653653"},{"product_id":"v13-c06-sidemet-pdf","title":"V.13:06 (236): SIDEBAR: MetaStock syntax","description":"METASTOCK SYNTAX\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHeres the systems syntax for MetaStock 4.5: ...","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133834654065,"sku":"\\V13\\C06\\SIDEMET.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_968e6126-2cc9-4ccf-ba21-615db6e202d0.jpg?v=1739653682"},{"product_id":"v13-c09-thetime-pdf","title":"V.13:09 (369-374): The Time Price Oscillator by Tushar S. Chande","description":"A Time Price Oscillator by Tushar S. Chande\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTechnical indicators, and oscillators in particular, measure the behavior of price relative to time. For example, the rate of change oscillator calculates the\npercentage change in price over a set period. That said, now consider an indicator that reverses the roles of price to time and measures the passage of time\nrelative to price. This article details such an indicator, presenting numerous applications.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAll major price trends evolve, both in price and time. A market trading in a sideways trend may begin to advance, turning into an upward trend, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. Over time the uptrend will mature and move into a sideways trend again, ultimately forming a market top, and then a downward trend will emerge. This new trend, led by lower lows and lower highs, will reach a market bottom and form another sideways trend.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDuring each phase of the trend, money can be made by simply following the trend or by anticipating price changes about a trend. For example, you can design a trend-following method to establish positions in accordance with the major trend. However, you can also use a trading range method, buying at the lower side of a trading range and selling at the upper side. This would be considered an antitrend philosophy.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe key question is: When is the best time to do either? At what point during a market cycle should you expect a\ntrend to begin or end, and when can you accurately estimate that the direction has changed?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eYou can count on the markets changing direction, just as you can count on day following the night. Like the sun, trends emerge, rise to a peak, weaken and fade away. In Sanskrit, aroon is the word for dawn's early light, the first sign of a new day or a change from night to day. Thus, \"aroon\" is an apt name for an indicator that is sensitive to the beginning of a new trend. This new indicator combines price and time in a way that illuminates the evolution of the price trend, and you can use it to identify periods when trend-following or antitrend strategies are likely to succeed.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTHE BASICS OF AROON\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe simplest definition of an uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows. Similarly, the definition of a downtrend is a series of lower lows and lower highs. However, within this definition, prices can evolve in any of a number of ways. The distinct manner in which a trend moves can include a combination of price relationships; for example, traders often compare today's price to some price in the past, such as today's high to a high a number of days ago. Overlooked in this process is the passage of time as a measurable component of the picture. Hence, we can ask this question: How many days have passed since the most recent x -day high or most recent x -day low?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo answer the question in trading terms, we can use a breakout criterion and use a fixed period for reference. Say we arbitrarily pick 25 days as our reference period, since this number roughly corresponds to one month of data. We can now define a trend as consisting of a series of higher 25-day highs and higher 25-day lows, or as a series of lower 25-day lows and lower 25-day highs. All that remains is to ask how much time has passed since the most recent 25-day high or low.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133834719601,"sku":"\\V13\\C09\\THETIME.pdf","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_34b31496-d825-4e70-abd0-15f5227e6866.jpg?v=1739653684"},{"product_id":"v13-c01-leverag-pdf","title":"V.13:01 (23-30): Leverage And Commodities by J.M. Malley","description":"Leverage And Commodities by J.M. Malley\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMalley explains how to determine the appropriate amount of leverage for commodity trading.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA winning trading system is a worthy goal, but there's the question of how much to put on in a trade or, equivalently, how much to lever yourself up in a trade. That aspect of trading, money management, is usually addressed with platitudes or difficult and inexplicable mathematics. Simply, risk, which is the probability of losing, is what you work toward reducing when you improve your trading system. Exposure, which is the amount you can win or lose, is controlled by the use of leverage.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLet us look at a simple technique for calculating the leverage that produces the maximum growth for a trading system. Then let us extend our results to a more sophisticated technique that will give the trader the means of selecting the leverage - referred to here as ideal L - that best suits the individual's style and taste for exposure.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133835702641,"sku":"\\V13\\C01\\LEVERAG.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_810b041b-cecb-462b-be60-4eb6a917a47e.jpg?v=1739653728"},{"product_id":"v13-c06-backtst-pdf","title":"V13:06: (255-259): Back Testing The Daily Sentiment Index by Lee Ang","description":"V13:06: (255-259): Back Testing The Daily Sentiment Index by Lee Ang\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMarket traders and advisors use sentiment surveys as a tool to identify extreme bullishness or bearishness. Here, then, is one trader's research into identifying what the best levels of a sentiment survey are for trading Treasury bond futures.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe daily sentiment index (DSI) is based on nonprofessional speculators' opinions of futures markets. Its creator, market timer Jake Bernstein of MBH Commodity Advisors, surveys nonprofessional traders at the end of each trading day regarding their level of bullish sentiment for each futures market and publishes the results after the markets close via a hotline, fax service and computer bulletin board. This index ranges from one to 100, in which a reading of 80 to 100 indicates that most of the respondents are extremely bullish, while a reading from one to 20\nsignifies that most respondents are extremely bearish. A reading of 50 would mean that the respondents are relatively neutral about the general market direction.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTraders normally use the DSI as a contrarian tool. The logic behind doing so is that when everyone agrees on market direction, the market usually moves in the opposite direction because the current price has adequately discounted the prevailing sentiment. Thus, a reading of 25 or below is considered to be a bullish reading, while a reading of 75 or above is taken to be a bearish indication.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIs the DSI a good contrarian tool? To find out, let's focus whether the daily sentiment index is effective as a trading tool for US Treasury bond futures. Before we go into that, however, let us explore the DSI's trading strategy and start with back-testing assumptions, using Logical Information Machine (LIM) software on a workstation to do so.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133836456305,"sku":"\\V13\\C06\\BACKTST.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_0606fcff-75b8-4d73-99f5-bc64c7f63cc9.jpg?v=1739653757"},{"product_id":"v13-c09-detect-pdf","title":"V.13:09 (375-376): Detecting the Minimum Tradable Cycle by Robert Wayman","description":"TRADING TECHNIQUES Detecting The Minimum Tradable Cycle by Robert Wayman\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCycle theorists will tell you that there may be tradable cycles within market data. Before looking for those cycles, though, you must determine the noise level\nwithin the data. Here are some methods to do so in this, the first of two parts.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe simple moving average (SMA) is the most basic of what can be done to a pricing datastream, whether for\nstocks, futures, options or other financial instruments. The simple moving average is easy to calculate and allows us to quickly interpret what prices are doing. If prices are above the moving average, then the pricing data series must be advancing; if prices are below the moving average, then the pricing datastream must be declining.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBut the simple moving average needs cyclic variations to do its job, and some cycles are more tradable than others. Recently, I completed a study of the cycle-driven SMA that casts light on its operation and some of its drawbacks. By looking at the SMA and determining its weaknesses, we should be able to gain insight into the operation of indicators related to the SMA as well.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen we think of trading an instrument (as opposed to buy and hold), we are implicitly thinking of cycles in the\npricing series. By using a mathematical procedure called a Fourier transform, we can find out the frequencies at which this cycle's energy lies.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133836521841,"sku":"\\V13\\C09\\DETECT.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_6df77e21-6f2b-4b64-8961-8d23cdd08f4e.jpg?v=1739653759"},{"product_id":"v13-c04-measure-pdf","title":"V.13:4 (141-145): Measuring Linkage by Thom Hartle","description":"Measuring Linkage by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSeasoned traders know that relationships exist between markets. In theory, if fundamentals move one market in one direction, then another market may also move in the same direction or show a propensity to move in the opposite direction. These intermarket relationships are often referred to as linked markets. Can traders use this information? Indeed they can. Here are some ways.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThink about it. How many times have you glanced at the financial news headlines and read that the price action in one market was due to the movement in another? Probably fairly often. We've all seen headlines such as \"Continued weakness in dollar worries bond traders,\" with the accompanying article supporting this explanation for a weak bond market, or a headline such as \"Bond market rally boosts stock traders' confidence\" explaining an up day in the stock market. Are such rationalizations justified? Is the explanation on target? Most of all, do these relationships between markets really exist? Well, the answer (to all) must be qualified with both a yes and a no. To clarify, first let's look\nat some examples.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133838848369,"sku":"\\V13\\C04\\MEASURE.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_c52828cd-df16-4309-ac30-6de18dae5825.jpg?v=1739653833"},{"product_id":"v13-c05-sidepro-pdf","title":"V.13:5: (219, 222): SIDEBAR: Profit Objectives and Sequential System","description":"Sidebar: Profit Objectives and Sequential System\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe classic form of chart analysis incorporates a method to project profit objectives after a trendline is penetrated. Along those lines, Tom DeMark developed three methods to identify profit objectives after the penetration of TD demand or supply lines. The methods are known as TD price projectors and the objectives are based on DeMark's observation that the difference between the extreme low price and the TD supply line is duplicated once the market has penetrated the TD supply line.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133838913905,"sku":"\\V13\\C05\\SIDEPRO.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_65918a7f-64fc-4c3e-9f64-1511623dc85e.jpg?v=1739653837"},{"product_id":"v13-c10-whipsaw-pdf","title":"V.13:10 (449-453): Whipsaws, Linear Trends and Simple Moving Averages by Robert Wayman","description":"TRADING TECHNIQUES  Whipsaws, Linear Trends\nAnd Simple Moving Averages by Robert Wayman\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHow does whipsaw magnitude affect a simple moving average system? Here's a common solution for the problems of the SMA.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePreviously, we looked at cycles and found that there was a noise level-based spectral cutoff point, above which were tradable cycles. We also found that selecting a cycle to trade established the averaging period we need to use in any simple moving average (SMA) crossover trading system. This time, let's look at whipsaws and how whipsaw magnitude actually affects the profitability of a simple moving average system. Let's also take a look at a common fix for the problems of the SMA and try to draw some conclusions about the direction of effective system development.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eONE MORE HURDLE\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOnce we've selected the averaging period for the moving average crossover system, we only have one more hurdle to cross in our quest for profitability, but it's a big one: whipsaws. What level of whipsaw cycle magnitude will render an SMA crossover trading system useless? My moving average crossover system is based on a simple moving average, but the basic thrust of the derivation applies to any moving average system with a price path crossover characteristic. To see how whipsaws affect a simple moving average crossover system, we'll need a model\nfor the system. The place to start is by defining a model of the simple moving average driven by a sinewave style of\ninput.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI won't list the formulas and derivation since they're somewhat complicated, but for those who are interested, the\nderivation is composed of several steps. First, a simple moving average (SMA) formula is generated by convolving\na sinusoidal price path with a rectangular window. The trading model is built by taking the difference between the\nSMA output and the price path. A buy signal would occur when the SMA crosses below the price path and a sell\nsignal would occur when the SMA crosses above the price path. Buy when:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e...","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133838979441,"sku":"\\V13\\C10\\WHIPSAW.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_5eb92cd7-e635-411d-b7a5-b78f5825023d.jpg?v=1739653839"},{"product_id":"v13-c02-amutual-pdf","title":"V.13:2 (57-61): A Mutual Fund Switch System by Nelson Freeburg","description":"A Mutual Fund Switch System by Nelson Freeburg\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTesting indicators to confirm viability is always important, and here, two indicators that stand up to historical testing are presented and then used to develop a simple mutual fund switch system.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMany successful stock market analysts and money managers rely on quantitative market models - systematic timing methods that incorporate a variety of technical, monetary, valuation and sentiment data. Analysts such as Norman Fosback and John Hussman employ multiple regression to blend their indicators while other analysts such as Gerald Appel, Ned Davis and Martin Zweig typically use less formal techniques to achieve splendid investment returns.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHowever the logic works, all such models face one irreducible minimum requirement. Before the model is built, the analyst must determine which indicators work and which do not. Unfortunately, many popular investment methods turn out to have little actual forecasting value when tested over long periods of market history.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere are two indicators that do stand up to historical testing. After examining their derivation and past performance, we will use these indicators to develop a simple mutual fund switch system. In testing, this hypothetical timing model outpaced the Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 500 index by a wide margin since 1957 to the present while exhibiting far less statistical risk. Though this model is effective, our main focus is on the two component indicators themselves and not any particular application. Consider this study as one step in the long process of isolating which of the hundreds of available stock market indicators actually have forecasting significance, and of those that do, how the indicators are best employed.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133843173745,"sku":"\\V13\\C02\\AMUTUAL.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_52ac0504-22b1-45f3-b30f-c891b26b17ec.jpg?v=1739653996"},{"product_id":"v13-c11-munibon-pdf","title":"V.13:11 (463-469): Trading Munibond Funds with Munibond Futures by Dennis Meyers","description":"Trading Munibond Funds With Munibonds Futures by Dennis Meyers, Ph.D.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDesigning a trading system is simply establishing a set of rules and back-testing them in the market. And there are different approaches and different markets to\ntrade. Here's one example of developing a system to time entries into and exits out of municipal bond funds.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat are municipal bond funds? They are mutual funds that hold only municipal bonds in their portfolio. These\nfunds have gained some popularity in recent years because the interest from these fund types are exempt from federal taxes. Of these funds, no-load municipal bond funds provide the perfect trading vehicle for small investors who cannot buy municipal bonds directly. Here's a new indicator that uses municipal bond futures to forecast the direction of no-load municipal bond funds.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBUT FIRST, A LITTLE BACKGROUND\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI began to look at no-load municipal bond funds in 1991 after I became unhappy with over-the-counter municipal bond dealers. Owning a munibond fund is very different from owning a munibond. Municipal bonds are difficult to trade in the over-the-counter market because of the large spreads and lack of a continuous market. Municipal bonds are usually bought and held until the bonds are called or reach maturity. Even though the market value of the bond moves up and down during your holding period, you can be assured of receiving the maturity value stated in the\nbond certificate at call or maturity (given if there is no default by the municipal issuer).","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133843992945,"sku":"\\V13\\C11\\MUNIBON.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_36eb122b-5663-495f-aaa7-6e47d78e2bef.jpg?v=1739654029"},{"product_id":"v13-c09-sideold-pdf","title":"V.13:09 (392): SIDEBAR: Old RVI, new RVI and inertia","description":"OLD RVI, NEW RVI AND INERTIA\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe relative volatility index (RVI) is a modified form of the relative strength index (RSI). The original RSI\ncalculation separates one-day net changes into positive closes and negative closes, then smoothes the data and\nnormalizes the ratio on a scale of 11 to 100 as the basis for the formula. The RVI uses the same basic formula but\nsubstitutes the 10-day standard deviation of the last 10 days' closing prices for either the up close or the down close.\nThe goal is to create an indicator that measures and reports the general direction of the volatility. In a Microsoft Excel\n4.0 spreadsheet (sidebar Figures 1 and 2), the formulas RVI, new RVI and inertia for the Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 500\nindex are presented. All formulas are copied down from the first cell entry except the instructions for cells G24,\nH24, L24, M24, Q24 and R24. For the old RVI, the up close column is in column E. The formula for cell E11 is:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e...","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133844550001,"sku":"\\V13\\C09\\SIDEOLD.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_bb80a562-b070-4f8c-99e3-2157b1d69c03.jpg?v=1739654056"},{"product_id":"v13-c07-sidefil-pdf","title":"V.13:07 (286): SIDEBAR: Filtering in Excel by Scott Barrie","description":"V.13:07 (286): SIDEBAR: Filtering in Excel by Scott Barrie\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere are the Excel 4.0 formulas to perform individual market filters. For our example, we'll use the December 1994 Treasury bond futures market (sidebar Figures 1 and 2) with a 1% filter. The spreadsheet will use the following formulas in their respective cell locations: column A: contract symbol; column B: date (be sure to use trading days only); column C: opening price; column D: intraday high; column E: intraday low; column F: close or settlement.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn column headings, I have used the_ to represent spaces between words so my macros can identify the heading. For example, I use \"end_date\" for \"end date.\" Copy down all formulas that are entered into row 3. The formulas follow the colon after the cell designation.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133848088945,"sku":"\\V13\\C07\\SIDEFIL.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_e2c686d1-bf9f-40ae-8b8a-ec6d5d305b53.jpg?v=1739654083"},{"product_id":"v13-c03-thetrdr-pdf","title":"V.13:3 (112-116): The Trader and the Internet by Suzanne Withers, Ph.D.","description":"The Trader and the Internet by Suzanne Withers, Ph.D.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBy now, much has been written about the Internet, the international computer users' network. But details have not been as forthcoming. How can Internet help traders and investors?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe profitable use of Internet, the worldwide information system, is just being recognized. A veritable electronic\nvolcano is hiding beneath the surface of information distribution as most traders know it, and it is erupting. The global network of intercomputer communication has been around for a while. Until now, however, it has been the domain of the government, the military and academia, all intensely exchanging arcane data, hypotheses and hyperbole. Only very recently has the commercial potential of the Internet been recognized and begun to be exploited. If nothing else, consider Internet in potential marketing terms. The current worldwide Internet user population is approximately equal to that of the United States. These 250 million-plus potential users tend to be college-educated, many with graduate degrees, and are computer literate, with average earnings far in excess of the national average.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eInternet allows immediate worldwide data dissemination, thereby allowing new ways to contract, cooperate and provide - the very ingredients necessary to create and sustain markets for goods and services.\nComputer-oriented business has taken up the gauntlet in using the computer network. Silicon Valley has organized and set up CommerceNet, a consortium of 40 businesses, including the likes of Intel and Hewlett-Packard, to create and exploit the Internet's commercial potential. Together, the businesses are attempting to make efficient data and information communications a reality. The federal government has donated $6 million in matching funds to explore the uses of the Internet commercially, and state and local government together have contributed a similar amount.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133849170289,"sku":"\\V13\\C03\\THETRDR.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_208ff5f5-aacf-4e79-82a0-5187e20cdddc.jpg?v=1739654121"},{"product_id":"v13-c06-aweekly-pdf","title":"V13:06: (233-237): A Weekly S\u0026P Trading System by Adam White","description":"V13:06: (233-237): A Weekly S\u0026amp;P Trading System by Adam White\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere's a trading system based on a price pattern and which uses the Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 500 index as a test case.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eShould a stock market investor buy and hold, or should he or she attempt to trade the major market trends? The answer depends on many factors, but even the most convincing arguments for buy and hold will not prevent curious technicians from designing trading systems. Let me introduce a system to trade the market trends.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe system's performance goal is to add value to stock market investing over and beyond what is subtracted by the costs of running the system. At first, this might mean achieving a higher annual return than buy and hold, but this is not necessarily the case. If the system can lessen risk effectively, then it adds value even if the total return is less than buy and hold. This is because investors don't invest with a trading system; they invest with their portfolios.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf the trading system lowers risk, we can restructure our portfolio and commit more capital to the market than we\nwould have with a buy and hold strategy. This builds more capital in the long run, even with a lower return. Of\ncourse, an improved annual return is still something to shoot for, but the smoothness of the equity line should get equal attention.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTHE SYSTEM'S CHARACTER\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe character of the system will be plain vanilla trend-following: Cut losses and let profits run. More specifically, the system will aim to be in the market during authoritative rising trends and out of the market and in cash during unsure sideways or downward action. (Short positions are never taken.) Critical to this strategy will be that the system employ different devices for the entry and exit. The entry will be selective, attempting to catch only the most powerful trends, while the exit will be adaptive, allowing strong trends ample opportunity to run while terminating positions in uncertain and risky conditions. Finally, the system will take a long-term stance, trading weekly bars of\nthe Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 500 index. Given these design parameters, it won't trade very frequently, and it will often spend significant periods out of the market.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133850382705,"sku":"\\V13\\C06\\AWEEKLY.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_f2186cbc-5a3b-400b-9a6f-2cbc3443a345.jpg?v=1739654168"},{"product_id":"v13-c10-mathgam-pdf","title":"V.13:10 (443-448): A Mathematical Game Plan by Gene Carey","description":"MONEY MANAGEMENT A Mathematical Game Plan by Gene Carey\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere's how the elements of a successful trading plan - profits, losses, commissions and slippage - can be used to quantify performance goals.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\nI t's a given: Operating with a game plan is a necessary ingredient in trading success. A trader needs to develop a plan that suits his or her personality and provides an efficient means of operating in the trading framework of choice, be it intraday trading the Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 500, position trading oats, or anything in between.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat does it mean to have a game plan? What is a game plan, how is it formulated, and why is it so important? Are there any elements to a game plan that may be considered universally applicable to any trading enterprise?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTraders come in many different types, but in broad terms they may be classified as either hedgers or speculators. Hedgers are usually large commercial enterprises, while speculators are generally independent traders with relatively limited trading capital and resources. In either case, an operation intent on generating profits from trading activity\nshould be considered and run as a business. While trading should ultimately be fun, this is a serious and important consideration, one that demands a sound framework - in other words, a game plan. So whether you are a hedger or a speculator, certain business considerations need to be formulated.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133851103601,"sku":"\\V13\\C10\\MATHGAM.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_77e050b8-3ad3-4c2d-84c0-ff68b1c4ed98.jpg?v=1739654196"},{"product_id":"v13-c01-sideneg-pdf","title":"V.13:01 (52-54): Sidebar: Trading And The Emotional Boomerang by Adrienne Laris Toghraie","description":"Sidebar: Trading And The Emotional Boomerang by Adrienne Laris Toghraie\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNegative boomerang and Mr. Hyde evaluation.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133851562353,"sku":"\\V13\\C01\\SIDENEG.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_103b3e1a-7f70-4086-80e0-5d6d5c571635.jpg?v=1739654212"},{"product_id":"v13-c04-modifyp-pdf","title":"V.13 (152-157): Modifying the Parabolic Stop and Reversal by Dennis Meyers","description":"Modifying the Parabolic Stop and Reversal by Dennis Meyers\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe parabolic stop and reversal indicator is a popular trading tool, but it's subject to false signals. Here's how it can be modified to improve its performance.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe parabolic stop and reversa (SAR) indicator was introduced by J. Welles Wilder in New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. The SAR, a trend-following indicator that is always long or short the market, is now standard on almost all modern technical analysis\nsoftware. The SAR can be applied to any time horizon bar chart such as monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, or even point \u0026amp; figure. (See sidebar, \"The parabolic trading system.\")\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe basic premise of the parabolic SAR is to create a trailing stop that is at first far enough away from the initial buy so retracements in the early stages of the trend don't stop you out of your position. As the trend matures, the trailing stop moves closer and closer at an accelerating rate to recent local lows of the current price until the stop is penetrated by adverse price movement and a sell signal is given. (The opposite occurs for a sell signal.)","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133851627889,"sku":"\\V13\\C04\\MODIFYP.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_5c6c8fb4-612a-4af3-816f-f4f855d99ebb.jpg?v=1739654215"},{"product_id":"v13-c06-candles-pdf","title":"V.13:06: (243-246): Candlesticks For Support And Resistance by John H. Forman","description":"V.13:06: (243-246): Candlesticks For Support And Resistance by John H. Forman\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEven as you read this, the candlestick charting technique, with its origins in Japan, is being absorbed into the ways of Western technical analysis. Here's how\ncandlestick charting can be used for a typically Western technical analysis strategy.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eObservation is the best friend of the technical analyst. By watching the markets, I noticed something interesting about candlestick charts, which I use extensively. I realized the real bodies used in candlestick charting can be used to determine significant support and resistance points, a strategy I had never seen before. Take a look at how it can be done.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAlthough they have only recently become popular in the Western Hemisphere, Japanese traders have been using the candlestick charting technique for hundreds of years. Candlestick charts, much like the bar chart equivalent, utilize the open, high, low and close activity to plot a period (usually a day). In candlestick charting, unlike bar charting where the highs and lows tend to be the focus, the opens and closes are the most significant.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA candlestick is composed of two features, as shown in Figure 1. The real body is a rectangle encompassing the area between the open and close and is what gives candlestick graphs their distinctive appearance. The real bodies are blacked in if the open is above the close and white if the close is above the open. A session in which the open and close are the same is commonly referred to as a doji session and is represented by a single horizontal line at that price.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe shadows of a candle - which give the appearance of being wicks - are drawn in the area above and below the real body. The upper shadow is the area between the high and the top of the real body, while the lower shadow is the area between the bottom of the real body and the low. It is possible to have one, two or no shadows. When a shadow is absent, the result is often referred to as a shaved candle.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133851660657,"sku":"\\V13\\C06\\CANDLES.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_a2991f1d-c0f7-455f-a47d-bfc2e67720ed.jpg?v=1739654217"},{"product_id":"v13-c08-shouldy-pdf","title":"V.13:08 (337-341): Should You Trade Futures? by Jay Kaeppel","description":"V.13:08 (337-341): Should You Trade Futures? by Jay Kaeppel\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere's some helpful advice to novices who are considering trading commodity futures. This should give you some idea of what's involved. And whether you\nshould.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEach year, many individuals take a deep breath, open futures trading accounts and begin trading on their own. Their reasons for doing so are numerous and diverse, but they generally fall into one of several categories. For the most part, these individuals have:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Had a lot of success in stocks, mutual funds or bonds and want to parlay their winnings by branching out into\nfutures.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Had some degree of success in stocks, mutual funds or bonds but have gotten bored. They want to try something.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Had little or no success in stocks, mutual funds or bonds and figure they had better try something else.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Heard of someone from somebody else who didn't know much about trading but made a fortune in pork bellies, cotton or some other market, and figure, \"Why not me?\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhatever the primary reason, in most cases it is the lure of easy money that draws people to the futures market. And in fact, they do come to the right place. Few areas of financial investment offer the potential rewards that successful futures trading can generate. Unfortunately, many new futures traders are so busy focusing on the \"potential reward\" part of the equation that they tend to overlook the \"potential risk\" downside. It is this failure to properly prepare for the potential pitfalls associated with futures trading that causes the high rate of failure among individual futures traders.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe first question that an individual who is considering entering the futures market should ask is not \"How should I trade?\" No, the first question to ask is, \"Should I trade?\" Before answering too quickly, most prospective new traders would be well served to consider the possibilities and pitfalls.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133852479857,"sku":"\\V13\\C08\\SHOULDY.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_73819f70-99de-476d-acb8-cc582e3a7a56.jpg?v=1739654239"},{"product_id":"v13-c11-intervw-pdf","title":"V.13:11 (490-495): Interview: Money Manager Laurence A. Connors by Thom Hartle","description":"Interview: Money Manager Laurence Connors by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat makes a trader a winner? It's hard to say. Professional trader Laurence A. Connors, who is the co-author of \"Investment Secrets of a Hedge Fund Manager\" and the president of money managers Connors, Bassett \u0026amp; Associates, thinks it's all a matter of finding a personal method that works for each individual. STOCKS \u0026amp; COMMODITIES Editor Thom Hartle conducted the interview with Connors on August 18, 1995, via telephone, and asked him, among other topics, about trading news reversals, why he likes to use average directional movement (ADX), why he doesn't worry when he has a string of losses, the reason he doesn't like mechanical trading systems and why he doesn't use oscillators.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: So how did you get started in the business?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: I was pretty young. For my eighth bithday, my grandfather gave me a baseball glove, two shares of Laclede Gas [LG] and a share of Exxon [XON]. That was how my interest in the stock market began. As a kid, I used to look in the newspaper every day to see the prices of my stocks, and that interest never left me.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: When did you take up a more active role in the stock market?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: When I went to Syracuse University. I had a business on the side, and the money I made from the business I put to work trading the market. I did okay, but looking back, it was probably due to a bull market environment as opposed to me using real trading skills. After I graduated, I went to work as a stockbroker for Merrill Lynch in Boston. I worked as a broker for 12 years, the final three at Donaldson, Lufkin \u0026amp; Jenrette (DLJ), which I considered my graduate school training. By 1993, I felt I had done everything I could and was ready to move on.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133852578161,"sku":"\\V13\\C11\\INTERVW.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_3cc8233f-ec3e-4e30-ae4c-7fbc16822549.jpg?v=1739654242"}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/collections\/volume-13-1995-18.gif?v=1739676579","url":"https:\/\/shop.traders.com\/collections\/articles-volume-13\/issue-02.oembed","provider":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities","version":"1.0","type":"link"}