{"title":"Volume 12 (1994)","description":"\u003cp\u003eBrowse Volume articles by issue:\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:12px;\"\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-01?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 1 January\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-02?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 2 February\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-03?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 3 March\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-04?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 4 April\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-05?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 5 May\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-06?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 6 June\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-07?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 7 July\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-08?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 8 August\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-09?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 9 September\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-10?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 10 October\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-11?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 11 November\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-12?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 12 December\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-13?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 13 Quick Scans\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-12\/issue-14?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 14 Product Reviews\u003c\/a\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e","products":[{"product_id":"v12-c06-joy-pdf","title":"V.12:6 (240-243): The Joy Of Trading with Statistics by Ben Warwick","description":"The Joy Of Trading with Statistics by Ben Warwick\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor many of you who have traded in the past, the title of this article may take you by surprise. How can trading be work of joy? Only when you are winning, obviously, but there's more to it than that. Systematic trading can be a joy if you are convinced that your decisions are based on favorable probabilities. Let me focus on the three most often used methods in my mathematical arsenal the Kruskal-Wallis test, the Sharpe ratio, and optimum trade size analysis.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Kruskal-Wallis (K-W) test is a statistical method dating from the 1950s. Although it has been used for the most part in the medical field to test the validity of drug trials, I have found it to be quite useful in differentiating between trading systems.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133794120049,"sku":"\\V12\\C06\\JOY.PDF","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_13926a3f-5ef1-43bf-88bd-c2b5eff4d254.jpg?v=1739652680"},{"product_id":"v12-c01-polariz-pdf","title":"V.12:1 (38-41): Polarized Fractal Efficiency by Hans Hannula, Ph.D., C.T.A.","description":"Polarized Fractal Efficiency By Hans Hannula, Ph.D., C.T.A.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat is fractal geometry, anyway, and how do you use it? Well, you'll find out here. Hans Hannula of MicroMedia describes the construction and use of an indicator derived from fractal geometry, the mathematics that describe chaotic systems.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMost chaotic systems produce some form of graphic representation. For example, turbulent flow in a\nstream produces swirls, eddies and vortices. Early chaos researchers found that the triangles, squares,\nlines and cubes of Euclidean geometry simply did not help in describing, studying or understanding their\nresearch problems.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFortunately, mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot recognized this problem and solved it by describing\nfractal geometry. As he studied various problems being researched, he realized that many of these\nproblems had in common graphic representations of a very squiggly line. So he asked himself the\nprofound question, \"What is the dimension of a squiggly line?\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe problem can be represented as shown in Figure 1. A straight line has a dimension of one. A plane\nsurface has a dimension of two. A squiggly line has a dimension between one and two, depending on how\nmuch it squiggles. The dimension of the line is not an integer like 1, 2 or 3 but can be a fraction, leading\nto the term fractional or fractal dimension. Mandelbrot discovered that many chaotic systems had a\nconstant fractal dimension. Others discovered that systems with the same fractal dimension had other\nproperties in common. Thus, fractal dimension became an important tool in chaos work.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133795922289,"sku":"\\V12\\C01\\POLARIZ.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_6df15682-d9a8-4004-a7ef-ff5a4e98da9f.jpg?v=1739652718"},{"product_id":"v12-c02-sidebq-pdf","title":"V.12:2 (86-88): SIDEBAR: 20 QUESTIONS ABOUT GAMBLING (TRADING) BEHAVIOR by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"20 QUESTIONS ABOUT GAMBLING (TRADING) BEHAVIOR by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn 1980, Gamblers Anonymous in Los Angeles published a list of 20 questions about gambling behavior.\nI took the liberty of inserting the word trading to help you translate your answer to your own trading.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133796184433,"sku":"\\V12\\C02\\SIDEBQ.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_11394e0d-9303-45ed-9f0b-f9b46e875dc4.jpg?v=1739652724"},{"product_id":"v12-c06-itsalli-pdf","title":"V.12:6 (264-273): It's All In The Family: Sherman, Marian And Tom McClellan by Thom Hartle","description":"Interview: It's All In The Family: Sherman,Marian And Tom McClellan by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe McClellan oscillator and the summation index are two popular technical indicators that have been around for more than 25 years, and in fact, the daily values are broadcast daily on CNBC. These tools, which can be found in most software packages, are used for identifying turning points in the stock market, but it's not often that you'll find an in-depth explanation included. So we decided to go to the source and ask the McClellans themselves Sherman and Marian, who first devised the indicators, and son Tom. Stocks \u0026amp; Commodities interviewed Sherman, Marian and Tom McClellan about these technical tools that bear their name. All three of the McClellans participated in the discussion.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: Sherman, I understand that the three of you wear a number of different hats.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSM: Our primary business is running a company called Admiral Plastics Corporation, which makes injection-molded plastic parts. We spend a normal amount of time running that business. Our second business is Sherman McClellan \u0026amp; Associates, which provides investment timing advice to institutional clients. In the evenings and on the weekends, we turn our focus to the markets, analyzing stocks and commodities, market indices and interest rates. Last year, our son Tom, who was a captain and helicopter\npilot in the Army, left the service after 11 years and joined my wife and me in managing our two businesses.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: The technical indicators that you're known for, the McClellan oscillator and the summation index, are based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks. Why did you focus on that set of market statistics?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTM: Advances and declines were chosen as a basis for analysis because of the good correlation to the market, to something that you could actually buy. The cumulative A-D line is a good data source that divides out exactly who's voting for moving up and who's voting for moving down.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: Today, the advances and declines statistics include a large number of interest rate-sensitive stocks compared with just the common stocks. Have you looked at that issue?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSM: We keep separate indicators of common stock and all stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and we use Barron's data for that. The common stocks have underperformed the interest rate-sensitive stocks on the NYSE since the Fed started lowering interest rates in 1991. We expect now that the tightening has begun, the two groups will come back together. If there are no forces acting to change interest rates significantly, then those two groups generally track close together and overlay each other. That hasn't been the case since 1991.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133797298545,"sku":"\\V12\\C06\\ITSALLI.PDF","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_cad0f284-e96b-4459-81a2-fc85ea3ec750.jpg?v=1739652758"},{"product_id":"v12-c08-slump-pdf","title":"V.12:8 (343-345): Trading Out Of A Slump by Adrienne Laris Toghraie","description":"Trading Out Of A Slump by Adrienne Laris Toghraie\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAnyone who's traded a while can tell you that finding yourself in a slump from time to time is inevitable. But a slump shouldn't be a crippling hurdle; here, Toghraie explains how to climb out of that pit of trading despair and be on your way in the market again.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat do you do when you find yourself in a bad trading spell? Suppose you've had 10 losses in a row, your livelihood is threatened and the world is caving in on you. Suppose you find yourself at a loss and you have no idea what to do next. Suppose someone told you the way to pull yourself out of the slump was to celebrate?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThat's right. Celebrate!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCrazy? Maybe. But do you have a better answer? Should you worry yourself sick and add to the problem instead of solving it? Worry and its natural consequence, dis-ease, are the most common responses to being in a slump. By dis-ease, I mean a breakdown of one or all three of our mental, physical and spiritual beings.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133797331313,"sku":"\\V12\\C08\\SLUMP.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_c9b4d00d-ba9d-4071-aa02-710e4b6033e6.jpg?v=1739652760"},{"product_id":"v12-c03-yen-pdf","title":"V.12:3 (106-111): Trading The Yen by Linda Satterfield","description":"Do you feel frustrated sometimes in your trading and wish you could get a blow-by-blow of what someone else is doing? Well, here's Linda Satterfield to take Stocks \u0026amp; Commodities readers through a series of trades she executed in the September 1994 yen futures market and how it turned out. By Linda Satterfield","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133800051057,"sku":"\\V12\\C03\\YEN.PDF","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_c96f4f13-ebf2-487e-a625-441416edd85f.jpg?v=1739652788"},{"product_id":"v12-c12-person-pdf","title":"V.12:12 (525-530): A Personal Neural Net Trading System by James Stakelum","description":"A Personal Neural Net Trading System\nby James Stakelum\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat goes through the mind of someone developing a neural network trading system? What are the steps\ninvolved in putting together something that mimics the mystery of the human mind? Here are some clues.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNeural networks are a promising technology for quantifying the probabilities of rewards and risks in\ntrading the global financial markets today. Although excellent neural network software products are\nabundant and available for the trader, I chose to design and program my own and then use my neural\nnetwork software as the foundation for a unique, well-conceived trading system. I decided to undertake\nsuch an effort to gain an intimate understanding of neural network technology and to be able to\ncustomize my neural network software to operate exactly the way I wanted it to. For those interested in\nusing a neural net to produce trading recommendations, here's some insight into the issues involved in\nworking with this technology as a tool for trading the markets.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn this, the first of two parts, I present a definition of a neural network, a description of optimization\nmethods and a discussion of how the neural network software I designed works. Next time, I will present\na detailed description of how my neural network functions, including how to preprocess data and how to\nuse probabilities in the system I created to produce market buy and sell recommendations.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133800083825,"sku":"\\V12\\C12\\Person.PDF","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_f50baa93-025e-42d0-84a6-f1ff7bac483e.jpg?v=1739652792"},{"product_id":"v12-c03-candles-pdf","title":"V.12:3 (116-120): Using Candlesticks And Oscillators by Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. Matheny","description":"Using Candlesticks And Oscillators by Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. Matheny\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBlending East with West, candlesticks with Western trading techniques and using the computer to boot: Combine candlesticks with oscillators.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCandlestick charting has come a long way since Steve Nison introduced the Japanese technique to the\nWestern hemisphere in the early 1990s. While its early popularity in the US had all the earmarks of a fad,\nit is no longer considered simply to be a fashionable way in which to view data; it has instead become a\nviable and important tool for the trader who previously only used traditional Western trading methods.\nCandlestick charting can be used effectively by incorporating the method with a strategy using Western\ntechnical analysis. Examining all this information can be a complex and challenging one, so the use of a\ncomputer is a perfect solution to the complicated steps necessary.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133803458929,"sku":"\\V12\\C03\\CANDLES.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_42354bd5-bfb6-4d0a-ba4f-83ad4e983cc3.jpg?v=1739652878"},{"product_id":"v12-c02-neuroli-pdf","title":"V.12:2 (60-64): Neuro-Linguistic Programmer Charles Faulkner by Thom Hartle","description":"Neuro-Linguistic Programmer Charles Faulkner by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhether you interpret the acronym NLP as Neuro-Linguistic Programming or natural learning process, the cognitive process of trading is what Charles Faulkner, of Chicago-based Mental Edge Trading Associates and a certified Neuro-Linguistic Programming trainer, studies. One aspect of Neuro-Linguistic Programming is a technique for overcoming mental impediments to success. A trader himself, Faulkner has studied successful traders extensively. By modeling the mindsets of successful traders, Faulkner seeks to help other traders follow those same successful patterns and help them manage their emotional states when trading. Faulkner shares his insights on applying successful trading skills.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHow did you get started with NLP and trading?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen I was in college, I was part of an independent research team trying to discover if there was any\nrelationship between language and beliefs. We were making some headway in the study by having the\nvolunteers ask particular questions of the callers to a crisis line.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAnd this was early preparation for Neuro-Linguistic programming?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eYes. Several years later, when someone dropped an early N LP book into my lap, I already knew what they\nwere on to! I had been doing research independently with other people in the same area, the difference\nbeing that we knew something was there but we couldn't crack the code. Richard Bandler and John\nGrinder, on the other hand, had. I dropped what I was doing and went deeply into NLP training. That was\n1981 and I've been involved ever since.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat was it specifically that drew you toward the study of Neuro-Linguistic Programming?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI got into NLP because I was interested in modeling specifically, modeling human excellence. That's\nwhat interested me most. I wanted to understand the structure of excellence and how you could transfer it\nfrom one person to another.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133804933489,"sku":"\\V12\\C02\\NEUROLI.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_353ffc0a-83f3-4354-a6df-5760690c2642.jpg?v=1739652919"},{"product_id":"v12-c04-onprofi-pdf","title":"V.12:4 (171-175): On Profit-Taking by Perry J. Kaufman","description":"On Profit-Taking by Perry J. Kaufman\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTaking a profit should be so easy, but it never seems to be. Why is that? Veteran market analyst Perry Kaufman explains the whys and hows and also explains how profit-taking has advantages over straight trend-following.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf you were to ask a trend-follower, How do you trade successfully? the answer would be, Let your\nprofits run and cut your losses short. That seems to be the philosophy underlying trend-following\nprograms. One of the most stunning examples is gold, which in January 1980 skyrocketed from $100 an\nounce to $850 an ounce. During the period that gold prices were soaring, there were good opportunities\nto take profits at $250 an ounce and $400 an ounce, but neither would have been close to the profits\npossible if a long position had been held simply using nearly any trend-following method. For example,\nFigure 1 shows the move in silver during the 1979-80 period, which could have captured exceptionally\nlarge trend-following profits. The high volatility that followed, however, may have reduced those returns.\nIn Figure 2, a chart of the Deutschemark, profits look large, but realistic entry and exit points show that\nonly 200 points could have been captured from a maximum of 800. The very high volatility would have\ndemanded a large investment for a small return.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eReturning frequent profits is far more desirable than waiting for such an opportunity. Spectacular price\nmoves do not occur often enough to be worth sacrificing a good, everyday plan. In addition, the risk\nassociated with a major move is correspondingly very large and requires a bigger investment to protect an\ninfrequent occurrence.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133808537969,"sku":"\\V12\\C04\\ONPROFI.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_0eec20eb-02ba-40be-86c6-fda6a8e59741.jpg?v=1739652978"},{"product_id":"v12-c07-sidebc-pdf","title":"V.12:7 (306-309): SIDEBAR: Chaikin's Money Flow Indicator","description":"SIDEBAR: Chaikin's Money Flow Indicator\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis sidebar providesChaikin's basic money flow formula and sample code for MetaStock and TradeStation languages. The first step to calculating the 21-day money flow indicator is to calculate the raw one-day accumulation\/distribution indicator.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133809521009,"sku":"\\V12\\C07\\SIDEBC.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_d9ec31cb-728f-4498-9485-d9f2467383db.jpg?v=1739653002"},{"product_id":"v12-c04-sidebi-pdf","title":"V.12:4 (153-157): SIDEBAR: Indicators by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"Indicators by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBelow are descriptions and formulas for the indicators mentioned. These are usually included in most\ntechnical analysis packages. For a more detailed discussion, refer to the references cited.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133811421553,"sku":"\\V12\\C04\\SIDEBI.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_4dd8c42f-52d6-4963-8c81-86f47414c199.jpg?v=1739653047"},{"product_id":"v12-c06-myths-pdf","title":"V.12:6 (248-252): Three Myths About Trading A Small Commodity Account by K.D. Angle","description":"Three Myths About Trading A Small Commodity Account by K.D. Angle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe New Timing Device editor Kelly Angle disputes some common notions about trading commodities if you have a small commodity account. What are they?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn talking with thousands of clients and traders in nearly a decade of operating as a professional in the futures industry, small traders have told me many times that their long-term goal is to eventually leave their current occupation in exchange for a life of wealth and independence supported solely by successfully trading their own futures account.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat is the probability of a small individual trader actually attaining this dream? Remember, most traders who make this statement are trading a relatively small account and want to trade it up over time to amounts large enough to support themselves and their families. Is this a realistic aspiration? If it is, why don't we see hundreds, if not thousands, of small independent traders successfully making healthy livings across the country? Perhaps understanding the major roadblocks to this goal is key to making this dream a reality.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133811454321,"sku":"\\V12\\C06\\MYTHS.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_2e73c412-e9c5-4a04-9d8d-c39319dca76f.jpg?v=1739653050"},{"product_id":"v12-c01-stockma-pdf","title":"V.12:1 (20-22): Stock Market Risk: A Monthly Look by John Kean","description":"Stock Market Risk: A Monthly Look by John Kean\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHave you ever wanted to know what the actual statistics of the month-to-month risk in the stock market are? This article looks at the question and formulates a possible reason.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMost stock market analysis focuses on whether prices will rise or fall, with much less attention given\nto the question of drawdowns, or lows. Occasionally, however, even a month with a substantial stock\nindex gain will have a draw down that is beyond many investors' stamina levels.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNow take a look at monthly drawdowns in the Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 500 stock index from 1965 on. All the\ndata was calculated using daily close cash prices on a month-end basis. Drawdown is calculated here as\nthe percentage difference between a month's daily close low and the previous month-end close. As such,\nsome months have positive draw-downs in that their lows were higher than the preceding month's close.\nRisk will be discussed from the perspective of someone who is long stocks.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLack of endurance in the face of drawdowns is usually due to overleveraging and\/or underpreparation\nmentally for what could happen. In the 344 months since January 1965, 83% of those months\nencountered drops to some degree from\/the previous month's close. The worst case, not surprisingly,\noccurred in October 1987, with a -30.14% drawdown. The average (mean) monthly drawdown over the\n28.7-year period equaled -2.44%, while the median was -1.68%. In 22% of the months studied,\ndrawdowns equal to or worse than -4% were encountered, which might give some pause to those considering the 10 to 1 leverage available in an S\u0026amp;P 500 futures contract. For months that closed up from\nthe previous month, 19.4% still had drawdowns of -2% or worse. Keep in mind that if we were using\nintraday data instead of closing data, the numbers would be considerably more negative.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133812306289,"sku":"\\V12\\C01\\STOCKMA.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_d916f8a7-030d-4273-b2b9-719eed389a88.jpg?v=1739653072"},{"product_id":"v12-c03-sidebe-pdf","title":"V.12:3 (106-111): SIDEBAR: THE ELLIOTT WAVE by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"THE ELLIOTT WAVE by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Elliott wave principle is a method for classifying and forecasting market movement. The basic tenet\nis that markets move in a five-wave pattern in the direction of the trend. Once the five waves have been\ncompleted, the market will move counter to the trend in a three-wave pattern. For example, in Figure 1\nthe trend is up and there are five waves labeled waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. Waves 1, 3 and 5 are called\nimpulse waves. Waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves, moving counter to the preceding waves. Once a\nfive-wave movement is complete, the market will move in a countertrend fashion with a three-wave\ncorrective movement labeled a, b and c.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEach wave, both impulse and corrective, is subdivided into waves of a smaller degree. In Figure 2, the\nsame wave pattern as Figure 1 is presented with the waves subdivided. Notice that impulse waves 1, 3\nand 5 are composed of waves of a five-wave form and waves 2 and 4 are of a three-wave nature. A\ncomplete cycle occurs once the five-wave moment followed by the three-wave corrective are complete.\nThis cycle represents a subdivision of the wave of the next higher degree. Thus, waves can be subdivided\ninto waves of a lower degree or expanded into waves of a higher degree.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133812339057,"sku":"\\V12\\C03\\SIDEBE.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_cd9ca11e-1bfa-485f-a829-8a0450a86ffa.jpg?v=1739653074"},{"product_id":"v12-c06-sidebm-pdf","title":"V.12:6 (264-273): SIDEBAR: THE McCLELLANS' INDICATORS","description":"SIDEBAR: THE McCLELLANS' INDICATORS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe McClellan oscillator can be used for measuring changes in momentum of price, volume, advances and declines. The most common use is for measuring the momentum of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listing of the daily number of stocks that advanced and the number of stocks that declined.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe calculation of the McClellan oscillator is a three-step process. First, determine the difference between the number of stocks advancing and the number of stocks declining for each day. This raw number is then smoothed with two exponential moving averages (EMA) to create two different time series. The difference between these two time series is the McClellan oscillator.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133813518705,"sku":"\\V12\\C06\\SIDEBM.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_76827b11-35d9-4a8b-a859-eecda5283c34.jpg?v=1739653098"},{"product_id":"v12-c12-hybrid-pdf","title":"V.12:12 (534-534): Create A Hybrid Indicator by Jim Ritter","description":"Create A Hybrid Indicator\nby Jim Ritter\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eInterested in creating an indicator with a little bit of this from one kind of indicator and a little bit of that\nfrom another? Well, you're in luck. This may be your solution.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTechnical indicators are tools, and just like hammers, screwdrivers and pliers, everyone has about the\nsame basic selection to choose from. That having been said, have you ever found yourself in a situation in\nwhich you need a unique tool that isn't in your toolbox? It's not a new situation, and it' s not limited to the\nworld of carpentry and construction; it can occur in technical analysis as well. But it doesn't mean you' re\nstuck. You just ha ve to get a little creative.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor the sake of this discussion, let's assume that you're fond of stochastics and the relative streng th index\n(RSI). Both are overbought\/oversold oscillators. They are different in that RSI is based only on the close\nwhile the stochastics oscillator use s high, low and close. However, it may be tha t neither indicator\nperforms exactly to your specification and satisfaction. It's quite possible that you could predicate your\ntrading rules on both indicators reaching ta rget values at the same time -- that is, RSI less than 20 and\nstochastics less than 30. These are generally accepted signal levels, but for both to occur simultaneously\nis not particularly likely.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133813715313,"sku":"\\V12\\C12\\HYBRID.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_2b8c83d9-876f-4066-b96b-e5891cde003f.jpg?v=1739653100"},{"product_id":"v12-c03-sidebc-pdf","title":"V.12:3 (116-120): SIDEBAR: THE CANDLESTICK METHOD by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"\u003cp\u003eTHE CANDLESTICK METHOD by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133815386481,"sku":"\\V12\\C03\\SIDEBC.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_bc802fdc-68cb-45d1-b543-5bc20b9b598a.jpg?v=1739653159"},{"product_id":"v12-c06-pvrank-pdf","title":"V.12:6 (235-239): Price-Volume Rank by Anthony J. Macek","description":"Price-Volume Rank by Anthony J. Macek\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eImagine receiving a warning when the market was likely to collapse or being alerted when one of your favorite stocks was about to rally. What if these signals came from analysis that was simple enough to do without a computer and took only a few minutes a day to update, using just two pieces of information found in virtually any newspaper? Is this a dream? Maybe not.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe old adage about keeping things simple applies even to the investment world. Methods of analysis such as polarized fractal efficiency and price oscillator divergences do a great job, but for those with neither the time nor the inclination to master the techniques necessary to monitor every blip and sputter that the market produces may be served just as well by noting only two very important market variables: price and volume.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo illustrate, examine what generally happens when the market as a whole, or even an individual security, moves in stages within a typical bull-to-bear investment cycle. At the start of a bull market, both price and volume tend to increase together. This confirmation, seen in the early stages of a market advance, is indicative of market strength. As the bull matures, volume tends to diminish, even though prices are still trending up. This divergence, where higher prices\nare not accompanied by higher volume, is usually indicative that a market top may be imminent. As prices peak and then begin their downward trek, volume generally increases as investors rush to dump their holdings. Later, as selling pressure subsides, the grip of the aging bear begins to weaken (point D), and we see diminishing volume even as prices continue to fall.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis lessening of downside momentum gives the opposite signal as in point B, as lower volume in the face of lower prices tends to signal that a market bottom may be approaching. Eventually, the bear is driven back into its den, prices begin to strengthen and a new market advance begins the investment cycle once again.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133815419249,"sku":"\\V12\\C06\\PVRANK.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_766db89a-61db-4dae-88de-8c4ea6eb5808.jpg?v=1739653162"},{"product_id":"v12-c01-sidebdb-pdf","title":"V.12:1 (11-19): SIDEBAR: DEMA1 EXCEL SPREADSHEET by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"DEMA1 EXCEL SPREADSHEET by Technical Analysis\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis Excel spreadsheet (Figure 4) presents the calculation of the DEMA1 (column G) of the weekly\nclosing price of the NASDAQ (column D). We will be using the regression coefficients for the\ninitialization of the single exponential moving averages (column E) and the double exponential moving\naverages (column F). Column A is the date, column B is the high and column C is the low for the weekly\nNASDAQ. The first step in calculating DEMA1 will be calculating the linear regression of the closing price\nto determine the v (slope) and the u (y-intercept) of the regression line.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133816336753,"sku":"\\V12\\C01\\SIDEBDB.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_5d70edbc-47fa-40ea-9935-db0b1bfabd5c.jpg?v=1739653199"},{"product_id":"v12-c09-sidebf-pdf","title":"V.12:9 (355-362): SIDEBAR: Fourier Analysis","description":"SIDEBAR: Fourier Analysis\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMarket data is considered to be a complex wave form composed of cycles with different lengths or frequencies. When you look at a price chart, you can see that there are upward trends with countertrend declines or downward trends with countertrend rallies. Each price movement has a varying number of days between consecutive tops and bottoms; in other words, the price action appears to be the sum of cycles with different cycle lengths.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA fast Fourier transform (FFT) of a complex wave form such as market data decomposes the time series into its underlying frequency components. A Fourier power spectrum is simply a plot in histogram form of the cycle power (y-axis) versus frequency (x-axis).","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133816729969,"sku":"\\V12\\C09\\SIDEBF.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_1ca85736-1e4b-4888-b943-61e207f1ea1a.jpg?v=1739653216"},{"product_id":"v12-c06-sidebpv-pdf","title":"V.12:6 (235-239): SIDEBAR: P-V RANK BY HAND","description":"SIDEBAR: P-V RANK BY HAND\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAs the article Price-volume rank describes, P-V rank can be figured by hand by using the guidelines outlined. I do so, and then I manually enter the resultant data (numbers 1 through 4) into EQUIS International's The Technician software. I am able to do this by listing P-V rank as a custom indicator and adding the daily data manually under the user-added variable capability. After the raw data is listed, the technical study or software of choice can be manipulated.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133818597745,"sku":"\\V12\\C06\\SIDEBPV.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_d36ee18a-fdda-477f-a58b-4bc700c4458f.jpg?v=1739653291"},{"product_id":"v12-c09-ratio-pdf","title":"V.12:9 (366-369): Trading The Ratio Of The RSI by Russell Rhoads","description":"Trading The Ratio Of The Rsi by Russell Rhoads\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere's a method for trading the spread between the Swiss franc and the Deutschemark. The technique involves using the ratio of the relative strength index (RSI) of each currency to identify trading points.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe correlation between the Deutschemark and the Swiss franc, considering the strong fundamental economic ties between the two countries due to their close geographic proximity, always seemed to be obvious to me. So when I discovered that a floor trader was using technical signals from the Deutschemark to trade the franc, it occurred to me that there had to be some way to trade the franc and the mark together profitably. Further, I reasoned, since the currencies trade in tandem, shorting one and going long the other at the same time would be a low-risk venture.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFigure 1 shows the two currencies together for the last six months of 1993. The two are definitely moving in line with each other, but further investigation was necessary to determine if it were possible to make a profit from the correlation.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAlthough additional transaction costs are involved in trading two separate currencies instead of just one, trading the opposite sides of the franc and the mark reduces some of the risk generally associated with currency markets. Taking the opposite sides of two very similar vehicles is not unlike trading different expiration months of the same futures product. The prediction that must be fulfilled is not what direction the currencies are going to move but rather if these two currencies are going to resume moving in the parallel fashion they have in the past. Currency trading has been construed as being extremely speculative, but this method of taking advantage of discrepancies between the franc and mark is a low-risk way for individual speculators to be involved in this potentially lucrative trading arena.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133819384177,"sku":"\\V12\\C09\\RATIO.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_9ab40e05-2145-40a1-9703-6ee49ee47d1b.jpg?v=1739653314"},{"product_id":"v12-c05-analysi-pdf","title":"V.12:5 (188-191): Analysis Of A Winning Trade by Gary Smith","description":"Analysis Of A Winning Trade by Gary Smith\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWinning traders tend to have something in common in at least one way, and that is the ability to make rapid trading decisions based on all the factors that affect the market. Here, private trader Gary Smith recounts a trade he made in November 1993 in stock futures and explains about the monthly, weekly, daily and intraday indicators that made that day an obvious buy.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe world of successful real-time trading in stock futures differs markedly from that portrayed by\ntheorists and academicians who have little or no hands-on experience as traders. These scholars attempt\nto simplify trading into a single-decision process based on an esoteric formula or equation. While this\none-dimensional approach to the market may occasionally perform well over short-term cycles, it has yet\nto work consistently in real-time trading over a period of several years.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eInstead, the select few winning traders in stock futures tend to share a particular trait, and that is the\nability to synthesize on a daily basis all the fundamental, technical and psychological factors that affect\nthe market, and then to make quick trading decisions based on those factors. Although this ability or skill\nis not innate, neither is it something that can be taught. Achieving this trait demands years of real-time\ntrading experience. However, most would-be traders seem unwilling to put in the years of tuition required\nto gain the intuition required to become winners. Instead, what they do is to seek short cuts, always\nsearching for some Holy Grail that will do all the thinking for them.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133825085809,"sku":"\\V12\\C05\\ANALYSI.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_f4eaf4e1-bb82-4813-b5db-a83b2e023e13.jpg?v=1739653387"},{"product_id":"v12-c11-develop-pdf","title":"V.12:11 (463-468): Developing An Expert System To Forecast The Stock Market by Mike Flanagan, Ph.D.","description":"Developing An Expert System To Forecast The Stock Market by Mike Flanagan, Ph.D.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNowadays, computers are often used to develop rule-based trading strategies. Frequently, these rules will be based on work provided by experts; such rule-based models are generally called expert systems. Here, Mike Flanagan takes you through the process of developing an expert system for generating medium- (three- to six-month) and long-term (six- to 12-month) forecasts of the US stock market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAn expert system is a computer program that uses deductive logic to simulate the decision-making process of humans. The program contains a modifiable knowledge base consisting of if-then-else rules and facts, a user interface, a database\/spreadsheet interface and an inference engine that makes logic-based decisions. In the early days of expert system development, systems were built by interviewing a human expert about a particular subject and then attempting to capture that expert's knowledge for the benefit of other, nonexpert users; the term expert system is derived from this process. Today, the goal of an expert system developer is to capture as much relevant knowledge about a given subject from all\navailable sources and create a series of rules that represent this knowledge. The performance of an expert system model is primarily a function of the quality and size of its knowledge base.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe if part of a rule is basically a series of conditions expressed as grammatical sentences or algebraic expressions. If the program determines that the if conditions are true, the statements in the then part are assumed to be true and are added to the knowledge base as known facts. If, however, any of the conditions in the if part are not true, the statements contained in the else part are assumed to be true and this information is also added to the knowledge base.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133825970545,"sku":"\\V12\\C11\\DEVELOP.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_38bb49d3-0c16-4a56-acb9-91e20eeefcaa.jpg?v=1739653417"},{"product_id":"v12-c04-zweig-pdf","title":"V.12:4 (158-164): Martin Zweig Of The Zweig Forecast by Thom Hartle","description":"Martin Zweig Of The Zweig Forecast by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMartin Zweig may be a familiar name to you, and that would not be surprising, considering how many different hats he wears: one as editor of The Zweig Forecast newsletter, one as chairman of the Zweig Fund and one as the head of the Zweig Total Return Fund not to mention one as panelist on the popular TV show Wall $treet Week, on which he has appeared since 1974. Zweig, who has $9 billion under management currently, has spent the past 32 years developing his market indicators and models. Stocks \u0026amp; Commodities spoke with Zweig on a variety of topics ranging from the importance of monetary policy for the stock market to sentiment.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMarty, when did you first start writing The Zweig Forecast?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI wrote my first issue in the fall of 1971. I was teaching at the time and I was offered a position as a\nconsultant to a brokerage firm. My newsletter was intended to be geared to the institutional customers of\nthe brokerage firm, but the firm went out of business before I completed the second issue. Previously, I\nhad written some articles that were published in Barron's, two of which were on indicators based on the\noptions market. Fortunately, the articles generated enough interest in my work that the newsletter\ncontinued.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen did you introduce your mutual funds?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Zweig Fund was offered in 1986 and the Zweig Total Return Fund was offered in 1988.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNow, your years of research indicate that the direction of the stock market is dominated by monetary conditions.\nHow do you monitor those conditions?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe majority of the indicators are interest rates. We follow short term, long term and Eurodollar rates. I'm not trying to forecast the rate; what I'm looking at is the trend. We use various exponential averages to\nsmooth out the volatility, and then we look for reversals in the trend. It's pretty simple!","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133828231537,"sku":"\\V12\\C04\\ZWEIG.PDF","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ce23a312-9949-4b2a-af57-cb26862745f5.jpg?v=1739653476"},{"product_id":"v12-c11-relativ-pdf","title":"V.12:11 (451-454): The Relative Strength Ratio-MACD Crossover by Gilbert Raff","description":"The Relative Strength Ratio-Macd Crossover by Gilbert Raff\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere's an indicator to identify positive and negative trading signals for stocks and mutual funds. The heart of the indicator involves applying an oscillator to the relative strength line. Trading signals result from identifying strong relative strength, which is a positive indication, while weak relative strength is considered a negative sign. Here's how to lower the volatility of returns by applying the popular moving average convergence\/divergence (MACD).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMost stocks and mutual funds are more volatile than the Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 500 index. The first two quarters of 1994 amply demonstrated this, with most equity mutual funds losing more than the stock indices, and most bond funds losing more than the Shearson Lehman bond index. In what may seem like a paradox, I have used in my financial management practice an indicator based on the relatively greater volatility of stocks and mutual funds to produce less volatile investment returns. I call it the relative strength ratio-MACD crossover indicator.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLet me illustrate this first in mutual funds. The first step is to divide the weekly close of the mutual fund in question by the weekly close of the S\u0026amp;P 500 index, and you'll have a graph of the relative strength ratio of that fund. I use this term to distinguish this ratio from the similarly named but completely different relative strength indicator (RSI). When the ratio is falling, the fund is underperforming the S\u0026amp;P index, and vice versa.\nNext, apply the classic moving average convergence\/divergence (MACD) indicator to this graph. When the MACD is over its nine-week exponential moving average (EMA), called the trigger line, buy the mutual fund. When the MACD is below the trigger line, move into a money market fund if you are conservative or into a higher-performing fund if you are aggressive.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133830590833,"sku":"\\V12\\C11\\RELATIV.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_4e13ead3-f34b-4d1c-9c98-2f5961afa1df.jpg?v=1739653538"},{"product_id":"v12-c01-sidebt-pdf","title":"V.12:1 (42-44): SIDEBAR: TICK LINE MOMENTUM by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"TICK LINE MOMENTUM by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe daily closing tick is collected in column C in sidebar Figure 1. The first step is to smooth the daily\nclosing values using a 10-period exponentially weighted moving average. To start this process, we need\nto calculate the 10-day simple moving average, which is done in cell D11. The formula for cell D11 is:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e=TRUNC(AVERAGE(C2:C11))","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133830951281,"sku":"\\V12\\C01\\SIDEBT.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_5c587d10-f315-4f40-b08a-c2edac098bc3.jpg?v=1739653558"},{"product_id":"v12-c05-sidebcci-pdf","title":"V.12:5 (192-197): SIDEBAR: CALCULATING AN 11-PERIOD CCI by Thom Hartle, Editor","description":"CALCULATING AN 11-PERIOD CCI by Thom Hartle, Editor\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe commodity channel index (CCI) can be calculated using any lookback period chosen by the trader.\nThe Excel spreadsheet shown in sidebar Figure 1 is an 1 l-period CCI for the Dow Jones Industrial\nAverage. The first step is to calculate the daily typical price. This is the high, low and close added\ntogether and divided by three. This step is performed in column E.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133831606641,"sku":"\\V12\\C05\\SIDEBCCI.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_28f5bcbc-8718-41e0-843a-175ad6a73ba5.jpg?v=1739653578"},{"product_id":"v12-c01-priceos-pdf","title":"V.12:1 (45-48): Price\/Oscillator Divergences by W. Lawson McWhorter","description":"Price\/Oscillator Divergences By W. Lawson McWhorter\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHave Dow theory divergences always fascinated you? Well, you're in luck. Here's a primer on observing divergence between indicators and prices to generate trading signals.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDivergence, or the nonconfirmation of price movement by a related market, security or technical\nindicator, has long been a useful part of the technician's repertoire. The importance of divergence was\nfirst recognized by Charles Dow and his successor, William Hamilton, in what has become known as the\nDow theory. One of the central premises of this method is that any move in the Dow Jones Industrial\nAverage (DJIA) must be confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJIA). If the industrials are\nmaking new highs while the transports are unable to break old ones, the strength of the primary trend is\ncalled into question.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFigure 1 demonstrates a typical Dow theory divergence; in it, as the industrials set new records, the\ntransports failed to better highs set in April. While the Dow theory is certainly not without its detractors,\nthe concept of divergence forms the foundation of many different technical studies and has become a\npillar of technical analysis.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhile not referred to as such, divergence plays a vital role in the proper analysis of classic chart patterns.\nChart analysis generally calls for volume to confirm price movement; the absence of proper volume is\nessentially a form of divergence. As Edwards and Magee state in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e[Volume] is always to be watched as a vital part of the total picture. The chart of trading activity\nmakes a pattern just as does the chart of price ranges. The two go together and each must conform to\nthe requirements of the case.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133832491377,"sku":"\\V12\\C01\\PRICEOS.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ec3bdd98-700f-4be3-b41a-539a622120c7.jpg?v=1739653603"},{"product_id":"v12-c01-sidebda-pdf","title":"V.12:1 (11-19): SIDEBAR: Dema1 Derivation by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"Dema1 Derivation by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere is a nonrigorous derivation of the one-parameter double exponential moving average (DEMA1),\nwhich assumes there is no noise and that the MAs have reached a steady-state value (i \u0026gt; w). The observed\ndata will be defined as an exact linear process.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133833048433,"sku":"\\V12\\C01\\SIDEBDA.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_8f00304f-9ce5-4d40-80d1-14b6313b4afd.jpg?v=1739653628"},{"product_id":"v12-c08-weiss-pdf","title":"V.12:8 (337-342): Finding Value Statistically: Geraldine Weiss of Investment Quality Trends by Thom Hartle","description":"Interview: Geraldine Weiss of Investment Quality Trends by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHave you ever wondered about how to find real value in the markets? Well, this may be the solution to your problem. Geraldine Weiss started the Investment Quality Trends newsletter in 1966. Recently, IQ Trends was included in the seven-member honor roll for performance in up and down markets by the Forbes\/Hulbert survey of investment letters. Stocks \u0026amp; Commodities interviewed Weiss about how she started out, the methods she uses for selecting stocks and her thoughts about the market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: Geraldine, how did you get started in the financial arena and with your newsletter, Investment Quality Trends?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: Well, my work in the stock market was influenced by three people: Benjamin Graham, the well-known author of the book The Intelligent Investor, who alerted me to the benefit of looking for value in the stock market. The second was Charles Henry Dow, who also wrote many times about value and about dividends. But I think the biggest influence on shaping my approach to the market was my father, who not only looked for value but also looked for increasing dividends and good yields.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: An upward trend in dividends?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: My father impressed on me the importance of finding good values and good yields from dividends that were strong and growing. Your use of the word trend is good, because we use technical or statistical analysis of the fundamentals of a stock to decide what stocks to select and at what price to buy or sell.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eQ: When did you start publishing your newsletter?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA: I started publishing the newsletter because in 1966 28 years ago it was very difficult for a woman to break into this business, even as a stockbroker. I wanted to analyze stocks and the stock market, so I realized I would have to start my own business to do so, which I did.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133835538801,"sku":"\\V12\\C08\\WEISS.PDF","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ac32cb82-46da-4a57-9ed0-2ed5b6e5d1a8.jpg?v=1739653719"},{"product_id":"v12-c11-coppock-pdf","title":"V.12:11 (459-462): The Coppock Curve by Elliott Middleton","description":"The Coppock Curve by Elliott Middleton\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Coppock formula was introduced in Barron's in 1962, devised by a San Antonio, TX-based technician named Edwin Sedgwick Coppock. Since then, the Coppock oscillator has been adopted and adapted by technicians around the world. Here's how to use the Coppock curve to recognize major bottoms in the stock market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWe are creatures of habit. We judge the world relative to what we have experienced. If we're shopping for a mortgage and rates have been in the teens (as they were in the early 1980s) and then drop to 10%, we are elated. If, however, they've been at 8% and then rise to 10%, we are disappointed. It all depends on your perspective. The principle of adaptation-level applies to how we judge our income levels, stock prices and virtually every other variable in our lives. Psychologically, relativity prevails.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe moving average is the simplest form of adaptation-level. Moving average crossover rules accurately signal the onset of periods of returns outside the norm, whether positive or negative. This makes moving average crossovers useful to traders who want to get a boost on entering or exiting stocks or funds. The oscillator is also based on adaptation-level, although in a slightly different way. Oscillators generally begin by calculating a percentage change of current price from some previous price, where the previous price is the adaptation-level or reference point. The mind is attuned to percentage changes because they represent returns. If you bought Microsoft Corp. stock (MSFT) at $50 and it goes to $80, you make 60% before dividends. If you bought Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) at $4,000 and it rises to $4,030, the same dollar gain, you make 0.75% before dividends. It's the percentage change that counts. Relativity again.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133835604337,"sku":"\\V12\\C11\\COPPOCK.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_0db634c8-c0e4-4026-a6a3-68d34fdef342.jpg?v=1739653723"},{"product_id":"v12-c11-gear-pdf","title":"V.12:11 (480-483): Are The Averages in Gear? by Richard L. Evans","description":"Are The Averages in Gear? by Richard L. Evans\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat is Dow theory really indicating when the industrial and transportation averages are out of sync? Here's a Dow theory specialist to clarify.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne of Dow theory's main tenets and the basis of much modern-day technical analysis is the principle of confirmation. The confirmation theory originally took shape when Charles Dow first noticed that important market movements were preceded by joint confirmation of his two indices, the industrials and (at that time) the rails. Given that both indices represented at the time nearly all the important stocks, he reasoned, both should move together as a measure of breadth. Later, William Peter Hamilton further enhanced the confirmation tenet with underlying economic theory to the effect that the industrial average represented the production of goods and the rails the movement of goods, and when the averages were out of sync, the divergence reflected economic deterioration and were the harbinger of stock market uncertainties.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHowever, what started out as a simple observation in a Wall Street Journal editorial nearly 100 years ago has found its way into nearly all facets of modern-day technical analysis. Indeed, the confirmation\/divergence principle is so strongly associated with so many developments in technical analysis that many investors today do not realize that confirmation was first popularized in the writings of Charles Dow almost a century ago. But the confirmation principle, based specifically on the Dow Jones industrial and (now) transportation averages, is still very viable as a gauge of the overall market, if not more so, for investors of all levels of sophistication.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133835637105,"sku":"\\V12\\C11\\GEAR.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_0b8e44bd-512d-41ee-a0e4-7f9102bc10a5.jpg?v=1739653725"},{"product_id":"v12-c03-advance-pdf","title":"V.12:3 (112-115): Advance-Decline Line Basics by Daniel E. Downing","description":"Advance-Decline Line Basics by Daniel E. Downing\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIt never hurts to refresh your memory on the basics. Here's a primer on following the advance-decline line for the stock market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA stock investor who has just begun to analyze the stock market using technical analysis will\ninvariably look at the advance-decline line. There are solid reasons for doing so, for the advance-decline\nline is a useful indicator not only for the stock market, but also for numerous other markets. The\nadvance-decline line analysis package is multidimensional in that aspect. The daily advance-decline line\nis the most commonly used. To demonstrate, we'll use daily data from the New York Stock Exchange\n(NYSE), but daily data from the NASDAQ Composite or the American Stock Exchange (ASE) could be used\njust as easily.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe advance-decline line analysis package consists of four moving averages, an oscillator, a momentum\nindicator and a simple line chart. By constructing these tools and understanding how they interact, you\nwill have a tremendous tool for obtaining information from the daily advance-decline statistics.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBREADTH FOR KNOWLEDGE\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA technician looks at breadth statistics because breadth is a good measure of demand or the lack of\nthereof. For example, many stocks rising indicates that there is widespread demand for equities.\nWidespread demand, in turn, means potentially large money flows into equities. Likewise, if few stocks\nare advancing, then the balance favors money flowing out of the equity markets. So advance-decline data\ncan be an indication of supply and demand factors. Price action gives you one dimension of market\nactivity, which might be pictured as a vertical line. Breadth gives you another dimension of that image,\nwhich you might picture as a horizontal line. By using the two in tandem, you have a two-dimensional\nimage that will impart more information about the internal technical state of the market.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133836423537,"sku":"\\V12\\C03\\ADVANCE.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_7443b23f-8fc1-499f-8eb1-f4854c67f68d.jpg?v=1739653754"},{"product_id":"v12-c12-warrior-pdf","title":"V.12:12 (518-520): The Warrior's Discipline Of Trading by Richard D. McCall","description":"The Warrior's Discipline Of Trading\nby Richard D. McCall\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis occupational psychologist and a master of martial arts compares the disciplines that traders need in\norder to trade effectively with the disciplines of the samurai.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen was the last time you were in a fight? Think about it. Did you think back to a long-forgotten\npush-and-shove incident at some tavern when you were in college? Or did you think of some military\ncampaign you served in? These combative recollections are likely to arise in the minds of most readers\ncontemplating the question. But such answers would be inaccurate. In all likelihood, it is quite possible\nthat the last fight you were involved in was as recent as yesterday or perhaps even today. It might have\neven been in the last few minutes. Surprised? You wouldn't be if you were to examine the history and\noriginal meaning of the words fight and war.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133837472113,"sku":"\\V12\\C12\\WARRIOR.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_e031ecc0-231a-4beb-bb0f-69a389a289fe.jpg?v=1739653789"},{"product_id":"v12-c05-sidebc-pdf","title":"V.12:5 (188-191): SIDEBAR: Commitment of Traders by Thom Hartle, Editor","description":"\u003cp\u003eAn explanation of Figure 2 from the article \"Analysis of a Winning Trade.\"\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133838684529,"sku":"\\V12\\C05\\SIDEBC.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_efc0a6cf-97d6-4e0d-be09-bcb075089c20.jpg?v=1739653829"},{"product_id":"v12-c05-volatil-pdf","title":"V.12:5 (198-199): The Volatility Index by David C. Stendahl","description":"The Volatility Index by David C. Stendahl\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDavid Stendahl explains the volatility index (VIX), which measures volatility based on the implied values of eight Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 100 (OEX) options from which the weighted volatility index is derived when combined.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe volatility index (VIX) is a measurement of the market's volatility. It specifically measures volatility\nbased on the implied values of eight Standard \u0026amp; Poor's 100 (OEX) options that when combined calculate\nthe weighted volatility index. The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) has been using this index\nfor five years and has only recently made it publicly available.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTHE BASICS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn its basic form, the VIX can help to determine if OEX options are undervalued or overvalued. Nothing\nfrustrates an option trader more than accurately predicting the market's direction, only to lose money\nbuying an overvalued option. Even if the market moves in the trader's direction, he can still lose money if\nthe option was overvalued when purchased. The premium of the option declines in value simply due to\nsupply and demand factors. Unfortunately, many option traders spend more time analyzing the market's\ndirection than they do pricing the specific option. Time constraints and a lack of computer power make it\nvirtually impossible for the independent trader to price an option accurately.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133838782833,"sku":"\\V12\\C05\\VOLATIL.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_7d036f5f-a556-412e-b5d6-d82581d52162.jpg?v=1739653831"},{"product_id":"v12-c02-inflati-pdf","title":"V.12:2 (57-59): The Inflation\/Deflation Phases Of The Stock Market Cycle by Martin J. Pring","description":"The Inflation\/Deflation Phases Of The Stock Market Cycle by Martin J. Pring\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eVeteran analyst Martin J. Pring explains how the commonly known four-year stock market cycle actually contains lesser- known inflation\/deflation phases, the knowledge of which would be very advantageous for asset allocation.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMany stock market participants are aware of the so-called four-year stock market cycle, which\nencompasses primary bull and bear markets. However, it is not commonly known that each cycle can be\nroughly divided into an inflationary phase and a deflationary phase an important distinction for asset\nallocation.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn the deflationary stage, interest-sensitive and other defensive issues outperform the market, while in the\ninflationary stage, earnings-driven issues and inflation beneficiaries, such as natural resource producers,\ndo well. The deflation phase begins after commodity prices peak and recessionary conditions gain the\nupper hand. The inflationary segment gets under way as excess economic capacity is used up, commodity\nprices rally and interest rates bottom out. The deflationary phase is associated with the late stages of a\nbear market and the early to middle part of a bull market, whereas the inflationary environment occurs\nlate in the bull market and at the beginning of the bear phase.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNot all stocks fit into these inflationary and deflationary classifications, however, so this principle cannot\nbe applied universally. However, knowledge of the current phase of the inflation\/deflation relationship\ncan still be useful for assessing the maturity of a bull or bear market.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133840617841,"sku":"\\V12\\C02\\INFLATI.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_8105d6c4-f95e-40ed-a4d1-f4e11c18afa1.jpg?v=1739653888"},{"product_id":"v12-c08-ontrend-pdf","title":"V.12:8 (321-324): On Trendlines, Money Flow Index And The Elliott Wave by Brian D. Green","description":"On Trendlines, Money Flow Index And The Elliott Wave by Brian D. Green\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHere's an example of wave and indicator analysis using the money flow index, trendlines and Elliott wave.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne of the most valuable lessons I have learned over the years is to approach problems systematically. Engineers compile theories, principles and equations into an organized toolbox of knowledge that can be used to analyze problems, while pilots use checklists to methodically follow procedures without omitting any critical tasks. A good technician and successful trader must use both techniques, learn from experience and continually study new techniques. Most important, however, he must develop a system based on his accumulated knowledge. Ideally, this system should be in a form that integrates all the tools at his or her disposal and facilitates the coordinated use of these tools.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne of the most important and easiest concepts to master in applying technical analysis is the use of trendlines. A trendline is simply a straight line joining a series of stock price tops or bottoms and represents areas of support and resistance. The significance of a trendline is a function of the data points used to define the line as well as how long the trend is in place. The longer a trendline is in effect and the more data points that are used to establish the line, the greater its significance is. Significant penetration of the trendline usually indicates a reversal or a slowing of the trend. Some technicians look for a violation of 3% to 5% of the price level. In addition, when a relatively steep trendline is broken, prices frequently attempt one final rally to previous highs. The old uptrend line is touched from below and then represents overhead resistance.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133840683377,"sku":"\\V12\\C08\\Ontrend.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ef53e088-27dd-4979-a67f-d8767cf3e4ec.jpg?v=1739653890"},{"product_id":"v12-c05-ctest-pdf","title":"V.12:5 (218-221): The c-Test by William Eckhardt","description":"The c-Test by William Eckhardt\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWe all know that thorough testing is the only way to determine whether a particular trading system or indicator is viable. William Eckhardt, the mathematician whose conversation with Richard Dennis helped bring about the Turtles, points out that before you spend time testing a method, you should first use a methodological test for dimensional coherency called the c-test.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn most cases, the only way to evaluate trading indicators or systems is through diligent and rigorous\ntesting. However, there are cases in which indicators, systems or even entire approaches can be rejected\non principle. A good way to root out the unworkable indicators, systems or approaches is to apply a\nc-test, which is a methodological test for dimensional coherency. A system can be said to be\ndimensionally coherent if its results do not change even though the units of measure do. The test is\napplied directly to the formulas or rules that define a system or indicator. If the system or indicator fails\nthe c-test, then it will give incoherent results that cannot be trusted; however, a formula determined to be\nincoherent can often be modified to pass the c-test.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo determine why a coherency test is necessary, first we look at some charting procedures that we\nsuspect may be incoherent for example, the fallacy of attaching significance to the sizes of angles on a\nbar chart or similar price graph. It is not that trading systems making use of angles are inferior there is\nsuch a glut of bad systems in general that it would hardly be worthwhile to identify only a few but\nrather, these angle-dependent trading systems are pseudo-systems, incoherent procedures disguised as\nalgorithms.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat holds true in a particular system should hold true no matter what the measurement. Now, a change\nin one unit may necessitate a change in others; if you change the unit of distance, then you must make\ncorresponding changes to the unit of area or volume. However, in price analysis, the overriding variables\nof price and time are so heterogeneous that a change in the scale of one may occasion no need for a\nchange in the scale of the other. (Chart services frequently rescale the price axes of their charts while\nleaving the time scales the same year after year.) Clearly, then, it should be possible to change the units","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133843960177,"sku":"\\V12\\C05\\CTEST.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_d1365b46-de2d-4187-9c40-a9dc96871f93.jpg?v=1739654026"},{"product_id":"v12-c03-optimal-pdf","title":"V.12:3 (121-124): Optimal Window Length For Forecasting by A. Denis Ridley, Ph.D.","description":"Optimal Window Length For Forecasting by A. Denis Ridley, Ph.D.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAs a rule, the financial markets are complex and difficult to analyze, due to multiple cyclical elements\npresent in the related data. The moving window spectral (Mws) method of analysis and forecasting\ndecomposes the data into a spectrum of cyclical components; this is important because each cyclical\ncomponent can be evolving over time, in its own unique way. Both the magnitude and phase of each\ncycle may change independently. To determine how each component is changing, a window with a fixed\nlength of time is moved along the data. At each data point, each cycle is examined and recorded as an\nobservation. From this data, the way in which each cycle evolves may be calculated. Then each\ncomponent is forecast separately. The component forecasts are then integrated to determine the final\nforecast.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo accomplish all this, what is the best window length? To determine the optimum, we will use the Dow\nJones Industrial Average (DJIA). The same principles can also be applied to other stock market prices and\nprice indices.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133844484465,"sku":"\\V12\\C03\\OPTIMAL.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_793b7eda-1182-446f-b37a-c3a96a26362e.jpg?v=1739654051"},{"product_id":"v12-c04-sidebc-pdf","title":"V.12:4 (135-145): SIDEBAR: CYCLES, POWER AND PHASE by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"CYCLES, POWER AND PHASE by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCycle length is the term most traders use when they refer to cycles. For example, two cycles are plotted,\neach with two different cycle lengths in sidebar Figure 1. The first cycle has a length of 64 periods; that\nis, a complete cycle occurs every 64 observations. This period could be hours, days or weeks, depending\non what time domain you are working in. The second cycle plotted has a cycle length of 16 periods,\nmeaning a complete cycle occurs every 16 periods.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe frequency of a cycle is a measurement of change that is, how much the cycle changes over a\nparticular time measurement. Frequency (F) is generally inversely proportional to the cycle length (L);\nthat is, F = 1\/L. The first cycle in article Figure 1 has a frequency of 1\/64 0.0156 and the second cycle\nhas a frequency of 1\/16 = 0.0625. Converting cycle length to degrees is a simple matter.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133844517233,"sku":"\\V12\\C04\\SIDEBC.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_d9c91b59-87e3-4772-bccd-8ea2849d451c.jpg?v=1739654054"},{"product_id":"v12-c02-gamblin-pdf","title":"V.12:2 (86-88): Trading And Gambling by Ruth Roosevelt","description":"Trading And Gambling by Ruth Roosevelt\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGambling is an ancient behavior. Humans have wagered on the outcomes of chance events since prehistoric times. Ruth Roosevelt, director of the Wall Street Hypnosis Center, explains how trading and gambling have certain characteristics in common and how not to let them become examples of problem behavior.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGambling is an old and universal behavior, and with it comes problem gambling. History abounds\nwith examples of problem gambling. The inability to control the impulse to gamble and to continue to do\nso despite the amount of money won or lost has existed for a very long time.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWe've all known traders who at one time or another experience a trading loss and try frantically to recoup\nthat loss by increasing the size and frequency of their trading. And we've known traders who after a large\nwin will trade carelessly or excessively until they lose their winnings. This behavior is classic with\nproblem gamblers. Pathological gamblers, however, often scramble to get additional funds to keep\ngambling. They may borrow, lie or even steal to keep gambling.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133847957873,"sku":"\\V12\\C02\\GAMBLIN.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_5c85fb5c-7513-4e0a-89e9-6ea1ed609572.jpg?v=1739654078"},{"product_id":"v12-c04-sidebw-pdf","title":"V.12:4 (135-145): SIDEBAR: WAMI SPREADSHEET by Technical Analysis, Inc.","description":"WAMI SPREADSHEET by Technical Analysis, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe spreadsheet (seen in sidebar Figure 5) provides a way to evaluate the WAMI power and phase\nspectrum as a function of the WAMI parameters L, M and N. The first column starting with A5 contains\nthe frequency values to be evaluated. Columns B, C, D, E, F, G and H are intermediate results needed to\ncreate the spectra, and columns I and J contain the power and phase spectra at each cycle frequency.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo set up the calculations, first, I input values into A2, B2, C2 and D2: These are the input parameters.\nThe value placed into A2 is the frequency increment. A value of 1.0 is more than adequate to obtain good\nfrequency resolution. If this value is changed to 2.0, then the effect of higher frequencies can be plotted.\nThen in B2, C2 and D2, I place trial values of M, L and N. I used the optimal values for the MTP data in\nthis example; that is, B2 = 5, C2 = 4 and D2 = 5.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133847990641,"sku":"\\V12\\C04\\SIDEBW.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_e130252b-2d89-44e3-932d-12d25e0b4ea2.jpg?v=1739654080"},{"product_id":"v12-c02-macdmom-pdf","title":"V.12:2 (81-85): The MACD Momentum Oscillator by Barbara Star, Ph.D.","description":"The MACD Momentum Oscillator by Barbara Star, Ph.D.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe moving average convergence\/divergence (MACD) is one of the most popular indicators around. Here, Barbara Star reviews and updates ways to use it.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAt present, virtually every charting software package contains Gerald Appel's moving average\nconvergence\/divergence (MACD) indicator. The indicator is composed of two lines: the MACD line, which\nis the difference between two exponential moving averages (usually a 12- and 26-period EMA), and the\nsignal line or trigger, which is an exponentially smoothed moving average, usually a nine-period EMA, of\nthe MACD line often displayed as a dotted line. When the MACD line and the trigger line cross, a potential\nchange in trend is signaled (Figure 1). Thomas Aspray provided a variation on the MACD for trading\nstocks and commodities in STOCKS \u0026amp; COMMODITIES articles in 1988.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhile experimenting with the MACD, Aspray found that its signals often lagged when used with weekly\ndata, causing late entries or exits. He also discovered that an MACD based on a shorter-length EMA was\nmore responsive to price turns than the original 12- and 26-period EMA. Like most traders, however,\nAspray wanted more than an indicator that caught trend changes; he wanted one that could anticipate\npotential changes in MACD turning points.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo achieve that goal, the MACD required two modifications. First, an MACD histogram was required. A\nhistogram is a line style that reflects changes in the indicator as individual vertical lines above and below\na zero point. It is often easier to see changes develop when using a histogram instead of the usual solid\nline style.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe MACD histogram, however, is more than a visual change in line style; it measures the difference (or space) between the MACD line and the trigger line. For his MACD histogram, Aspray began with the\ndifference between a 10- and 20-period exponentially smoothed moving average to produce the MACD\nline. He then calculated the difference between that MACD line value and a 10-period exponentially\nsmoothed moving average (the trigger line) of the MACD line to obtain the histogram value that is plotted\nusing a histogram line style.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133849071985,"sku":"\\V12\\C02\\MACDMOM.PDF","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ae33c762-87bb-400c-b426-41c54ec130d3.jpg?v=1739654117"},{"product_id":"v12-c03-gerald-pdf","title":"V.12:3 (98-105): Gerald Appel, With Systems and Forecasts by Thom Hartle","description":"Gerald Appel, With Systems and Forecasts by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGerald Appel, a well-known name in the annals of technical analysis, not only publishes the Systems and Forecasts newsletter, he is also a money manager with $200 million under management. But he may be best known for something he considers relatively secondary in his accomplishments, for he is also the originator of the popular and enduring moving average convergence\/divergence (MACD) indicator. Ironically, however, he doesn't understand what all the fuss is about with the MACD. So what does he feel is worth the fuss? Stocks \u0026amp; Commodities interviewed Gerald Appel to find out about the indicators he uses including the MACD and how he uses them.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGerry, today you're a money manager and the publisher of an investment advisory newsletter, but\nobviously you didn't begin that way. How did you get started?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI started back in the mid-1960s, when I was investing and trading for myself. My investment education\ncame from my own research and subscribing to just about every advisory service I could get my hands\non. But my background was actually in psychotherapy, which I was practicing at the time.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDo you have a medical degree, then?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNo, I have an MSW a master's degree in social work. I completed a training program in psychoanalysis\nat the Theodore Reik Training Institute in New York. Anyway, I submitted various articles to magazines\nlike Money and a magazine called Free Enterprise. I'd been writing for Yale Hirsch's Stock Trader's\nAlmanac and Smart Money and as a result, I developed an audience. So in 1973 I decided to start my\ninvestment advisory letter, which has been in publication since. In addition, a number of my subscribers asked me if I would be interested in actually managing their capital, and I accepted. Eventually, that grew\ninto managing close to $200 million.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAnd you focused on technical analysis for monitoring and timing the stock market?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePretty much so, with a particular emphasis on objectifying a timing signal, as opposed to treating\nsubjectively the various indicators that people use. There are many assumptions around the stock market\nabout the validity of technical indicators that don't test very well when subjected to statistical evaluation.\nThat really became my interest, developing technical methods and models that were objective, that could\nbe used in actual trading, especially mutual funds.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133849137521,"sku":"\\V12\\C03\\GERALD.PDF","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_c291f7ae-cf00-403a-9080-e5244b06d781.jpg?v=1739654119"},{"product_id":"v12-c07-trading-pdf","title":"V.12:7 (306-309): Trading A Stock Using Technical Analysis by Thom Hartle","description":"Trading A Stock Using Technical Analysis by Thom Hartle\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe search goes on for key indicators to help traders find profitable opportunities in the market. Here, Stocks \u0026amp; Commodities Editor Thom Hartle provides an example of a recent trade in a stock based on the foundations of technical analysis, price and volume.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTechnical analysis has two purposes. The first is to develop an idea about where a market is heading,\nanswering the question of what is happening. For example, if Treasury bond and Treasury bill yields are\nrising, indicated by a series of higher highs and higher lows, then you should conclude that the interest\nrate environment is one in which rates are rising. Once a trend is established, you should respect the trend\nuntil there is sufficient evidence that a new trend is under way. In this case, technical analysis is being\nused as a form of descriptive technique.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe second purpose of technical analysis is to answer the question of when is something happening,\nsomething that most people want to know. In this case, technical analysis is being used as a timing\ntechnique.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133850218865,"sku":"\\V12\\C07\\TRADING.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_1f675c9d-7c0e-4aca-bc8c-d0c1cad02364.jpg?v=1739654163"},{"product_id":"v12-c11-sidebco-pdf","title":"V.12:11 (459-462): SIDEBAR: Calculating the Coppock Curve in SuperCharts","description":"SIDEBAR: Calculating the Coppock Curve in SuperCharts\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Coppock curve in Figure 1 of the article \"The Coppock Curve\" by Elliot Middleton, labeled \"CoppockAnnual\" takes the essence of Coppock's original formulation and puts it in modern mathematics. Technicians have found that instead of using 11 and 14 month lags, a single annual lagged percentage change of the index works almost as well.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133850284401,"sku":"\\V12\\C11\\SIDEBCO.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_a20655c8-39ca-424e-b49b-de2bd72cd5c3.jpg?v=1739654165"},{"product_id":"v12-c10-usingam-pdf","title":"V.12:10 (416-419): Using A Moving Average System by Lars N. Kestner","description":"Using A Moving Average System by Lars N. Kestner\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMoving averages was one of the first trading methods used by technicians. Here are the basics to using a moving average system.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe process of developing a trading system consists of three steps. First, the developer must have an idea or a theory of how the proposed system will make profits. This could be breakout trading, range trading or anything in between. Then, once the developer has decided on an idea, the next step is to implement it - that is, quantify it - into a specific set of rules that can be evaluated. A concept such as \"Prices tend to continue up after a significant breakout occurs\" can be quantified into a rule such as \"Buy when prices make a 30-day high.\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eUnfortunately, most systems are not this simple to quantify. The third and final step is to test the system for performance. Here, we will undertake the three steps to develop a basic system. Our starting point will be the idea of following the three rules that traders should follow. In fact, most traders hear them everyday:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e1 Cut your losses\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e2 Let your profits run\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e3 Trade with the trend.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNow that we have a trading theory, we've accomplished the first step in creating a system. The next step is to implement our theory. By using a variation of the moving average system, we will create a system that follows these three rules of trading.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133851038065,"sku":"\\V12\\C10\\USINGAM.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_efdffe40-287f-4aa7-8978-a0e5c924c393.jpg?v=1739654193"}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/collections\/volume-12-1994-18.gif?v=1739676556","url":"https:\/\/shop.traders.com\/collections\/articles-volume-12.oembed","provider":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities","version":"1.0","type":"link"}