{"title":"Volume 1 (1982-83)","description":"\u003cp\u003eBrowse Volume 1 articles by issue:\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cdiv style=\"display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:12px;\"\u003e\n\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-1\/issue-01?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 1\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-1\/issue-02?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 2\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-1\/issue-03?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 3\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-1\/issue-04?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 4\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-1\/issue-05?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 5\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-1\/issue-06?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 6\u003c\/a\u003e\u003ca href=\"\/collections\/articles-volume-1\/issue-07?sort_by=title-ascending#ProductGridContainer\" style=\"margin-right:16px;\"\u003eChapter 7\u003c\/a\u003e\n\u003c\/div\u003e\n\n\n\n\n\n\n","products":[{"product_id":"v01-c01-forecas-pdf","title":"V.1:1 (18-18): Forecasting Commodity Prices Using ARIMA by ERIC WEISS, Ph.D.","description":"Forecasting Commodity Prices Using ARIMA\nby ERIC WEISS, Ph.D.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBack in December 1981, J. Louis Anon wrote an article in Commodities called \"Catch Short Term\nProfits using ARIMA'' and touched off a minor revolution in forecasting commodity and stock option\nprices with his claims that ARIMA could forecast prices within 1.5 percent.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI had written an ARIMA package for statisticians who have an Apple II (or III), which was the only one\nfor a microcomputer. Anon learned of this and referred customers who did not want to use a large\nmainframe computer (such as the one you can buy time on from his employer, Chase Econometrics) to\nme. Talking with potential customers, it became clear that the Anon article failed to answer many of their\nquestions. It also became obvious that the original package had to be modified for traders to be able to\nuse easily.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754306929,"sku":"\\V01\\C01\\FORECAS.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed.jpg?v=1739651211"},{"product_id":"v01-c01-hand-pdf","title":"V.1:1 (19-19): Handling Market Reactions by JOHN E. ROSENSTOCK","description":"Handling Market Reactions\nby JOHN E. ROSENSTOCK\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAll markets exhibiting prolonged price trends invariably have reactions against the trend. These\nreactions can be of short or long duration and can retrace small or large portions of the preceding swing.\nThey can be very sharp reversals or have periods of congestion prior to the retracement. The question is:\nHow are these reactions anticipated, measured, and taken advantage of? One very excellent method used\nin my computer analysis of market reactions is the momentum concept. This theory is based on market\nvelocity and can be aptly described as \"the steam in the boiler\" method. The most difficult part of\nworking with reactions is determining when they are over. Momentum is ideal for this purpose. The\nmarket to be measured must first be tuned to is dominant cycle. Measuring from tops to tops or bottoms\nto bottoms and halving this figure will produce a workable factor. For example, say our cycle is 20 days.\nThe price today is compared with the price 20 days ago. If it is higher than 20 days ago, it is plotted\nabove a base line. If lower, it is plotted below the base line. Using silver as an example, if today's close is\n10 cents higher than 20 days ago, a point is put 10 points over the base line. The next day may be only 5\ncents higher than 20 days ago, so a point is put 5 cents over the base line. This continues for each\nconsecutive day, plotting points either above or below the base line. This chart can yield two very\nimportant bits of information: 1) When the reaction is over; and 2) When the main trend will resume.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754339697,"sku":"\\V01\\C01\\HAND.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_b3de3fd1-a0c7-4c99-9c06-6b2c13afee69.jpg?v=1739651214"},{"product_id":"v01-c01-integ-pdf","title":"V.1:1 (12-14): Integrated Systems Approach To Technical Commodity Analysis by JOHN E. ROSENSTOCK","description":"Integrated Systems Approach To Technical\nCommodity Analysis\nby JOHN E. ROSENSTOCK\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ewhen I first became interested in commodity markets, it was my great fortune to read the works of and\nspeak with several of the most lucid teachers of market science and strategy. Each of these teachers had\nmethods which were profoundly logical in their approach. In the early stages of my learning curve (which\nin this business never seems to flatten out), I became aware of two trading tools which provided me with\nthe idea of a structure that lead to my \"ultimate commodity trading tool.\" One of these was the\nSibbet-Hadady Charts, or more importantly, the concept behind them which was to use several indicators\nfor trading. It seemed like a very rational approach. The other idea was the very expensive computer\nsystem which had the capability of displaying charts on a TV screen eliminating the need for shuffling\nthrough a lot of paper. I decided to take the best of both of these concepts and create a real-time computer\nsystem that would provide all of the indicators one would want to watch, and allow for the flexibility to\nmodify the indicators, as needed, in my research.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754372465,"sku":"\\V01\\C01\\INTEG.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_cde40b96-b053-4c99-9e5c-44290bb87266.jpg?v=1739651216"},{"product_id":"v01-c01-math-pdf","title":"V.1:1 (11-11): Mathematician's Viewpoint. by ANTHONY WARREN PH.D.","description":"Mathematician's Viewpoint.\nby ANTHONY WARREN PH.D.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn this initial article the author will describe his viewpoint on technical analysis and the value of\ncomputer based algorithms for enhancing one's chances of success in stock or commodity trading. We\nwill also outline a planned series of articles covering topics such as Fourier Analysis for Fun and Profit,\nData Filtering for the Masses, Do Trend Channels Really Exist?, and The Threefold Path to Forecasting.\n(Titles are Fictitious)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe main problem of trading is in developing systematic rules for managing the unpredictability of the\nmarketplace. Since price fluctuations invariably contain a random component, there is no analytic method\nor system which will guarantee success on any single, individual trade. Rather, one must be content with\ntrading methods that optimize one's chances for success on the average. Thus, security trading is very\nsimilar to that of playing a game of chance. An experienced bridge player, for example, will always bid a\ngiven hand in the same way, even though a bid may succeed one time and fail another, due to the\ndistribution of the remaining cards.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754405233,"sku":"\\V01\\C01\\MATH.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_bd4a2432-1fb1-465b-b017-649b839a3ba0.jpg?v=1739651218"},{"product_id":"v01-c01-totrad-pdf","title":"V.1:1 (15-17): To Trade of Not to Trade (or how I done it) by JACK K. HUTSON, EDITOR","description":"To Trade or Not to Trade (or how I done it)\nby JACK K. HUTSON\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe format of sharing trading experiences is an easy way for Technical Analysis Group members, as\nwell as others, to tell how they used chart work and technical analysis in the day to day trading of stocks\nor commodities.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne of my approaches to trading is as follows: This story begins around the first of the year, 1982. Pork\nBellies had just made one of its abrupt ninety degree reversals which started a spectacular Bull market. At\nthat time I was attracted to the chart because the reversal was so sharp and the only side of the market\nto be on was the long side. On January 14th, I saw what looked like a good point to go long.\nUnfortunately I sat and watched. That trade would have taken me to the 5th of February for about 6 cents\nor $2200 net profit per contract.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor you new traders I would like to bring this sort of short-term trade into perspective. Commodity\n'contracts' are bought and sold only on margin, much like securities may be bought. As with securities\nthat are bought on margins, and a profit taken, it seems appropriate to compute a percent profit based on\nyour out-of-pocket expense (i.e. your margin). At any rate the numbers sound much better when looked at\nfrom this point of view and this IS my story.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754470769,"sku":"\\V01\\C01\\TOTRAD.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_21832b1f-3f73-4d56-af58-2f09eb904feb.jpg?v=1739651222"},{"product_id":"v01-c01-whate-pdf","title":"V.1:1 (20-20): What Else Does It Do? by STEVE ROSS","description":"What Else Does It Do?\nby STEVE ROSS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMore and more people are investing in personal computers. But personal computers are often\npurchased with only one or two real applications in mind. Many personal computer owners are not\nprogrammers, and have no intention of learning to program now, or in the future.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAs a programmer, I can sympathize with anyone who would rather not. Good programming requires a\ntremendous investment of time, and frustration. The frustration never seems to completely go away. The\nquestion many non-programmers are asking themselves is what else can that nicely packaged machine do\nfor me?\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOnce, the personal computer was only for the \"hobbyist\" -- a person who enjoyed programming\neverything from the ground up. Now, there are numerous firms who specialize in putting together\npackaged programs for a new market of people who want to use computers, but are not inclined to do the\nprogramming.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe emergence of these software packages has opened a new vista for personal computing.\nUnfortunately, many people are unaware of what all these programs can do for them, and even for those\nwho do see the potential, selecting the right one from the jungle of offerings is intimidating, to say the\nleast!","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754503537,"sku":"\\V01\\C01\\WHATE.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_2c041464-3e81-4072-a411-6951d65bf662.jpg?v=1739651225"},{"product_id":"v01-c02-arima-pdf","title":"V.1:2 (40-43): ARIMA Forecasting by ERIC WEISS, PH.D.","description":"ARIMA Forecasting\nby ERIC WEISS, PH.D.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn the October 1982 of Technical Analysis, I discussed Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average\n(ARIMA) and why it is such an accurate forecasting technique. In this article, I'll discuss how to build an\nARIMA model using typical software and present some examples from my program for microcomputers\nsuch as the Apple ][, EASI\/ ARIMA. Most other ARIMA programs running on large mainframe\ncomputers use a similar technique, although the commands are a little different.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe approach I like best was developed and popularized by Box and Jenkins at The University of\nWisconsin and The University of Lancaster (England), respectively. They have had such a major role in\nARIMA that it is frequently called Box-Jenkins. Their approach identifies an appropriate model,\nestimates it, runs diagnostic to make sure that it works as it should and then uses the model for\nforecasting.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754536305,"sku":"\\V01\\C02\\ARIMA.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_9c8e39d1-8271-4726-8f62-26b3fb928115.jpg?v=1739651227"},{"product_id":"v01-c02-fastf-pdf","title":"V.1:2 (29-31): Fast Fourier Transform by ANTHONY WARREN, PH.D.\/STAFF WRITER","description":"Fast Fourier Transform\nEDITOR'S NOTE:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo improve program readability the subroutine listed here has been enhanced by a BASIC language list\nformatter. We hope that this will prove helpful. The assignment statement 'LET' and indentations are not\nrequired for most BASIC interpreters. The program flow-of-control is much clearer by observing that\nloop operations, such as, FOR-NEXT are indented so the FOR and NEXT are directly above one another.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis program has been provided, to subscribers on record as of January 31, 1983, FREE of charge, ready\nto run from within the Compu Trac system. One need only use the Apple II utility FID (File Developer)\nto move the text file named STUDY.30 to any Compu Trac data disks. The file PROC.30 may also be\nmoved, for an example of a Procedure (number 30) using Fourier analysis.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754569073,"sku":"\\V01\\C02\\FASTF.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_7256ccde-8a5c-43b7-8b67-9872dad52184.jpg?v=1739651229"},{"product_id":"v01-c02-minig-pdf","title":"V.1:2 (26-28): A MiniGuide to Fourier Spectrum Analysis by ANTHONY WARREN, PH.D.\/STAFF WRITER","description":"A MiniGuide to Fourier Spectrum Analysis\nby ANTHONY WARREN, PH.D.\/STAFF WRITER\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe basic idea behind Fourier Analysis of time series is to decompose the data into a sum of sinusoids\nof varying cycle length, each cycle being a fraction of a common or fundamental cycle length. (For\nexample, figure 1 shows a time series consisting of a linear trend and two major cycles, and figure 2\nshows the decomposition into component sinusoids.) Originally, cyclic analysis was applied to physical\nphenomena to describe the behavior of complex vibrations, as for example, the multiple vibrations\ncreated by plucking a stringed instrument. The analysis of such systems is elegantly described by the\nbehavior of the longest or fundamental cycle, and the response to the first, second and higher order\nharmonics of the fundamental. Later, Fourier and others extended this analysis and showed that any finite\ndata segment or curve could be approximated arbitrarily well by a series of sinusoids, each of which is\nperiodic over the data interval. This method is the basis of Fourier Analysis of sampled data (time series)\nand of conventional spectrum analysis. (Note: the Fourier approximation of a curve or time series is\nperiodic, even if the data is not!)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn order to understand Fourier Spectrum Analysis we briefly review the properties of an individual\nsinusoid. A sinusoid may be uniquely characterized at any point in time by its amplitude or maximum\nvalue, by its frequency or rate of vibration, and by its phase. (See figure 3.) The period or cycle length of\nthe sinusoid is the number of trading days per year (assume one year is 260 trading days) divided by the\nfrequency, i.e. a sinusoid with a frequency of 10 cycles per year has a period of 260 \/ 10 = 26 days.\nFourier analysis decomposes the data into a sum of sinusoids of appropriate amplitude, frequency, and\nphase. Fourier Spectrum analysis is a condensation of this data transform, whereby the amplitude squared\nor power in each sinusoid is plotted versus each sinusoid frequency. (Phase information is thus lost in the\nspectrum representation of the data.) For example, the amplitude spectrum of the cyclic data in figure 1\nconsists of two data spikes at appropriate frequencies, as shown in figure 4.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754601841,"sku":"\\V01\\C02\\MINIG.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_57d44546-f4eb-41da-ac8a-752614e63407.jpg?v=1739651231"},{"product_id":"v01-c02-movavg-pdf","title":"V.1:2 (36-38): Moving Averages","description":"Moving Averages\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn our studies of stock or commodity time series data, i.e. a stream of successive daily closes (highs,\nlows, volume), we are constantly reminded of moving averages and their application. A moving average\nis one of the simplest and most often used smoothing or filtering methods available. All that is required is\nthat one choose a number of days, N, that you intend to average your data by and plot that average\ncoincident with the last day of data.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMATHEMATICALLY:","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754634609,"sku":"\\V01\\C02\\MOVAVG.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_cc395388-3daf-4957-aee1-6e2eb2dcdc2a.jpg?v=1739651234"},{"product_id":"v01-c02-techa-pdf","title":"V.1:2 (25-25): Technical Analysis Information. by JACK K. HUTSON, EDITOR","description":"Technical Analysis Information.\nby JACK K. HUTSON, EDITOR\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eINTRODUCTION\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWe would like to take this opportunity to thank all of our subscribers for their encouragement and\nsupport, and Tim Slater, of COMPU TRAC, who made it all possible. The initial set up of a magazine\nhas proven to be an interesting experience, one that I am sure any masochist would enjoy. The idea first\ncame to mind almost two years ago shortly after the first COMPU TRAC seminar (Feb. '81) in New\nOrleans. I did not attend the seminar, but did have an opportunity to listen to tapes of the conference. One\nof the members at the seminar brought up the idea of a User's Group that, I felt, had a great deal of merit.\nThe single most appealing thing about a User's Group is the ability to focus and draw together each\nothers' experiences and thus learn without actually doing. Of course there are limits to what one may\nlearn from reading or listening to someone elses good or bad trading techniques, but these shared\nexcursions into the past could just be enough to warn or signal one to be alert to possible pitfalls (as well\nas opportunities). In the first sample issue of \"Technical Analysis\" I wrote an article under the general\ncategory of 'past experiences'. This will be a regular feature titled \"Anatomy of a Trade''. In \"Anatomy of\na Trade\" we will publish a case history of a trade, winning or losing, describing the traders thought\nprocesses before, during and after. In this way we, as a group, will profit from others' knowledge.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754667377,"sku":"\\V01\\C02\\TECHA.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_916b02cb-5130-44d6-8456-313ffd9f7a26.jpg?v=1739651236"},{"product_id":"v01-c02-usfou-pdf","title":"V.1:2 (32-35): Using Fourier by JACK K. HUTSON","description":"Using Fourier\nby JACK K. HUTSON\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eJoseph Fourier (1768-1830) (pronounced \"fooryay'') was a French mathematician and inventor of\nFourier analysis. His work helped show the way to expressing periodic curves or functions by a sum of\nsines and cosines. These simple functions are easy for our computer to evaluate and project into the\nfuture. Many natural physical phenomena are oscillatory, that is repeating over and over again, much like\nthe Markets.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Markets are not a function in the mathematical sense, but do seem to go up and down over and over\nagain. During the late 1960's a number of Fast Fourier Transforms methods were divised to 'transform'\ntime dependent data, such as the daily market close, to frequency. The frequency Vs. amplitude squared\nis referred to as the 'Power or Transformation Spectrum'. A typical plot of a 'Transformation Spectrum' is\nshown in Figure 1. The plot shows which frequency has the most relative impact on daily (weekly,\nmonthly) closes.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754700145,"sku":"\\V01\\C02\\USFOU.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_90e2c456-851f-49fc-a7e4-86c5d0caab84.jpg?v=1739651238"},{"product_id":"v01-c03-anat-pdf","title":"V.1:3 (60-62): Anatomy of a Trade by JACK K. HUTSON","description":"Anatomy of a Trade\nby JACK K. HUTSON\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAll you have to do to be successful is follow the advice you give to others. -- The Scottish Rite Torch.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWEEDING OUT THE TRASH\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDuring a daily course of market review we produce a number of computer studies to supplement our\nchart and fundamental rumor collection. These daily studies are augmented by a more thorough weekly\nlook at the past price movement over a great length of time. From this weekly detail review of historical\ndaily land weekly) price change we determine which markets are in an advantageous trading position. For\nexample, in the commodities markets we generally analyze 26 contracts and 10 associated cash markets\nby first studying 14 perpetual contracts. In a future article we will further explain the derivation of this\ntype of 'perpetual' contract concept (Ref: Commodities, Mar 83, p. 72). From these 14 contracts we are\nable to filter down to 5 or 6 that appear to be in 'advantageous trading positions'.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754732913,"sku":"\\V01\\C03\\ANAT.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_11340ee7-6865-41dc-a072-eebcf55f968f.jpg?v=1739651241"},{"product_id":"v01-c03-cyclt-pdf","title":"V.1:3 (52-57): Cyclic Timing by JOHN HERRICK","description":"Cyclic Timing\nby JOHN HERRICK\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe concept of cyclic timing can be applied to most charting systems, including the most sophisticated\nanalytical systems; such as, oscillators. It is not adaptable to the Swing Vector System, because the\npassage of time is not laid out horizontally on that kind of chart.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI urge you to give this new concept a fair test. I have discovered that cyclic timing will eliminate almost\nall signals that do not produce profitable moves. This concept has the probability of improving any\ncharting system that produces graphic buy and sell signals.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThose of us who have used cyclic analysis of commodity-futures price movements, for some time, have\nbecome convinced that futures prices will move upward after the prices have formed a cyclic trough\n(bottom price), of a correctly chosen major cycle; EVEN during an over-all, general, bear market\ncondition. The extent of the upward move of the prices depends a great deal on the kind of market then in\nforce (bull, bear, or nowhere sideways).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWell, it doesn't require much mental effort to reason that futures prices will move downward; a little, a\nlot, or a break-even amount; after the prices have formed a midcycle crest of a correctly chosen major\ncycle.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754798449,"sku":"\\V01\\C03\\CYCLT.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_3e2b6207-95bc-45e3-8128-bd578e8c32d6.jpg?v=1739651245"},{"product_id":"v01-c03-gann-pdf","title":"V.1:3 (48-51): GANN by CURTIS ARNOLD","description":"GANN\nby CURTIS ARNOLD\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe system I am going to demonstrate is based on some of W.D. Gann's works. For those of you who\nare not familiar with Gann, he was a legendary stock and commodity trader who purportedly made over\n50 million dollars in the markets using his unique mathematical trading techniques.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe trading method I have developed is based on two of Gann's most basic toolshis 11 or 45 degree\nangle and his trend line indicator. Refer to examples 1 and 2.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAngles can be used to determine the strength of the market from a previous top or bottom. The 45 degree\nangle or 11 as Gann called it, is the most important angle because it divides space and time into equal\nparts. As long as the market stays above the 45 degree angle drawn from a previous bottom, it is in a\nstrong position and indicates higher prices. Likewise, as long as the market remains below the 45 degree\nangle drawn from a previous top, it's in a weak position and indicates lower prices. Question: How do\nyou know when a top or bottom has been made from which you can draw your 45 degree angle? This is\nwhere the trend line indicator comes into play. Refer to Trend line indicator, examples 1 and 2.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754831217,"sku":"\\V01\\C03\\GANN.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_4c749834-6739-4738-a988-43f3479e9a60.jpg?v=1739651247"},{"product_id":"v01-c03-goldb-pdf","title":"V.1:3 (58-59): Gold: Bull or Bear Market? by JESSE H. THOMPSON","description":"Gold: Bull or Bear Market?\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHow to use a monthly swing chart to determine\nmajor trend.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBefore you attempt to answer the question, it is imperative to first define which trend you consider to\nbe the greater trend. For in the crosscurrents of markets exist several trends coexisting over variable time\nperiods. To one person an upmove lasting several days is a bull market while to another the very same\nmove is considered a normal corrective rally within an ongoing bear market of longer duration in time.\nTherefore, first determine what you define as a bonified bull or bear market.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAs a general rule, the longer term, more established trends are easier to trade. Most of the consistently\nsuccessful market operators of past and present, such as W.D. Gann, Jesse Livermore, Ben Daugherty,\nhave maintained that the greater swings are most profitable. Since this writer has no sustainable\nobjections to this premise nor do I doubt its validity, we will accept it as fact.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754863985,"sku":"\\V01\\C03\\GOLDB.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_6d46313d-f4bc-42d7-ac32-fd1ea0f80ec1.jpg?v=1739651249"},{"product_id":"v01-c03-intra-pdf","title":"V.1:3 (47-47): The Intra Day Analyst  A Report by TIMOTHY C. SLATER\/President, Intra Day Analyst Company","description":"The Intra Day Analyst A Report\nby TIMOTHY C. SLATER\/President, Intra Day Analyst Company\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe last version of The Intra Day Analyst has been in the field for five months. During this time, it has\nundergone several revisions responding to users requests for modifications. With the exception of a few\nminor \"bugs\" (since reprogrammed), it has been trouble-free. Now that it is in wide use, I offer my\nobservations and suggestions.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e1. A trader should first be accomplished at inter-day trading before attempting to trade intra-day. On the\nface of it, this seems like a rather simple statement, but the feedback from users reinforces this basic\nfeeling. Just because you are closer to the market does not mean that you will trade better. The fact is\nyou may trade worse if your emotions and psyche are not well attuned to trading.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e2. Do not attempt to narrow the time window to the degree that the natural ''noise\" which occurs in all\nmarkets will interrupt and interfere with both the studies and the visual chart. It has been interesting to\ntalk to prospective users who insist that they want to follow Tic by Tic. I explain that they can do so\nby updating a chart every three seconds using IDA on a variable time length bar chart. They start to\nuse the program and frequently call me to admit that I counseled them correctly in the first place. They\nquickly lost their interest in every Tic and for the most part were using ten and fifteen minute bars to\nguide them in trading. (A ten minute chart will display two full days of trading.)","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754896753,"sku":"\\V01\\C03\\INTRA.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ffce2371-b7b1-461e-a891-8826ff166c3f.jpg?v=1739651251"},{"product_id":"v01-c03-person-pdf","title":"V.1:3 (66-67): Personal Computers","description":"Personal Computers\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe computer is no longer just a large, complex, expensive object that major corporations blame when\nthey screw up your order. Thanks to the miracle of electronics, today's computer is a large, complex,\nexpensive object that you can have in your own home.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf you read your major trend-spotting magazines such as Time and Newsweek, you know that in recent\nyears virtually every man, woman, and child in the United States has bought a personal home computer.\nYou constantly see articles explaining how ordinary people like yourself are finding all kinds of handy\nuses for computers around the home:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBob and Doris Pullet of Full Horse, Texas, use their computer for many things, such as keeping track\nof what kind of soup they have in their pantry. 'It has been a real boon to us,' reports Doris. 'In the old\ndays, we would have to open the pantry door and manually look inside to see whether we had, say\nchicken gumbo. But now all I do is turn on the computer and punch in a few simple commands, and\nwithin a matter of seconds the computer says 'CHKN GMB\/2;.87;.74,' which lets me know that we\nhave two cans of chicken gumbo with a depreciated value of 87 cents, or 74 cents adjusted for\ninflation. And Bob is working on a program that will keep track of the good forks.'","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754929521,"sku":"\\V01\\C03\\PERSON.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_52ff0358-5edb-4cfd-accf-bfd845445c96.jpg?v=1739651254"},{"product_id":"v01-c03-phil-pdf","title":"V.1:3 (67-67): Philosophy","description":"Philosophy\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThere is a great deal of expertise among our subscribership. This periodical collects letters and other\ninformation from subscribers and after a little rewriting, if needed, publishes the results. Documentation\nfor computer programs is intended to define how to operate the program, not how to interpret the results,\nwe will endeavor to help in this area. We will not be making specific trade recommendations, but rather\nsuggesting possible techniques that should help you reach your own decisions. The interpretation of\nresults will be based on observations, opinion and statistical correlation.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWe collect technical analysis user ideas and conduct surveys of investors to ascertain Group\nrecommendations for Technical Analysis application. Our intent is to augment user application of\nexisting systems and provide a forum for publication of new or interdisciplinary techniques as well as\nreview software and hardware to determine compatibility and usefulness in trading or maintaining data\nabout tax and money management. This can prove to be a headache, to the average non-computer person,\ndue to printer settings or interface cards used. why buy software or hardware to find out that it does not\nwork well with your system. Some systems and computerized systems just give you a buy-sell point and\nexpect the trader to blindly throw money into the market. It takes a lot of nerve to chance losing $1,000\non a trade based on a complete unknown.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754962289,"sku":"\\V01\\C03\\PHIL.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_c7f18035-ce6e-4b55-96ad-6758bdc6dc27.jpg?v=1739651256"},{"product_id":"v01-c04-appl-pdf","title":"V.1:4 (90-91): Applying ARIMA Forecasts by ERIC WEISS, Ph.D.","description":"Applying ARIMA Forecasts\nby ERIC WEISS, Ph.D.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"Applying ARIMA Forecasts\" is an article continuing a series started in the October (82) and the\nJanuary (83) issues of Technical Analysis. AutoRegressive-lntegrated Moving Average(ARIMA) is a\nforecasting methodology based upon the techniques described by Box and Jenkins in their book: Time\nSeries Analysis, Forecasting and Control, published by Holden-Day, 1976, 2nd ed.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWith understanding and time one may construct a model of a discrete statistical time series, such as the\nmarkets, that will forecast the future with known probable error.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo begin, let's use this example:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eVariable: high\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSum of Squared Residuals: 44.76\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eResidual Variance: .75\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAverage Absolute Error: .65\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eObservations: 64\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDegrees of Freedom: 60","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133754995057,"sku":"\\V01\\C04\\APPL.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_b623e394-654a-4b04-8fe7-51ef41d852b4.jpg?v=1739651259"},{"product_id":"v01-c04-data-pdf","title":"V.1:4 (74-77): Data Filtering Methods For Technical Analysis by ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D.\/Technical Analysis","description":"Data Filtering Methods For Technical Analysis\nby ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D.\/Technical Analysis staff writer\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eData filtering methods such as moving averages are quite prevalent in many trading systems. In this\narticle we will discuss a methodology for selecting appropriate data filters based on Fourier spectrum\nanalysis, and the basics on how to use smoothing filters for trading decisions. In the course of this article\nwe will attempt to familiarize the reader with data filtering from a frequency domain point of view (i.e.\ncyclic). The reader need not be concerned with the mathematics of Fourier analysis, but should begin to\nappreciate this methodology as a powerful tool for understanding and applying many trading systems.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLINEAR FILTERING: FREQUENCY DOMAIN THEORY\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSuppose we desire to apply data filtering to time series x(i) i=1...N, such as the stock market daily\ncloses. In general, a linear filter is defined by a fixed set of weights (w(j) j=1...M), where M is the length\nof the data filter. The output of the filter is a second time series","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755027825,"sku":"\\V01\\C04\\DATA.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_48ab2339-2686-4a59-b3e5-503ce7fa121b.jpg?v=1739651261"},{"product_id":"v01-c04-evol-pdf","title":"V.1:4 (89-89): The Evolving State of Technical Analysis","description":"The Evolving State of Technical Analysis\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLeafing through a back issue of \"Success Farming\" magazine the other day, I was quite surprised to run\nacross a fairly sophisticated article on the technical analysis of some of the meat and grain futures. The\npurpose of the article was apparently to educate and to provide a method of calculating hedging levels for\nsome of its subscribers. In fact, some of the Midwestern farmers I know, use words like \"Elliot wave or\n50% retracement\" just as easily as they use \"heifer or grain combine.\" At first, it sounded somewhat\nstrange to me, hearing all this technical jargon used so naturally. I always thought that farmers generally\nperceived the futures market more in terms of a fundamental rather than technical perspective. It\nemphasized to me just how pervasive the use of technical analysis of price activity has become in the\n1980's.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis widespread use of technical analysis relative to 10 or 20 years ago, seems to be a natural product of\nthe convergence of several factors. I once read a very interesting article that classified Americans as the\n\"engineers\" of the world. Although we are not the only \"engineers\" around as evidenced by the\ntremendous technological advances arising out of Japan and Western Europe, the fact still remains that\nwe have engineered a great portion of the major technological advances of the 20th century.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755060593,"sku":"\\V01\\C04\\EVOL.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_049aece7-1946-4cc4-b352-d032e1540e73.jpg?v=1739651263"},{"product_id":"v01-c04-fibo-pdf","title":"V.1:4 (70-73): Fibonnacci Cycles by TUCKER J. EMMETT","description":"Fibonnacci Cycles\nby TUCKER J. EMMETT\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe growth in popularity of my own technical application of the Fibonnacci mathematical series to the\nfutures markets the past ten years has been fairly remarkable, considering the amount of homework and\ntrading discipline requisite in the approach. But the predictive accuracy and logic behind this technical\nsystem, along with the method of checks and balances obtained from it, make the effort well worthwhile.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Fibonnacci series is the basis of the \"Elliot Wave\" and various forms of Elliot theory. While Elliot\ntheory is espoused by many analysts, it is understood by very few. My own application of the Fibonnacci\nseries evolves from a strict subdivision of the futures market into three distinct categories: Pattern,\nTime, and Ratio. I then require that each of these three categories have satisfied the essential framework\nof the Fibonnacci series before establishing a position. If only two out of the three categories fulfill their\nrequirement, a position can be established, but the reliability factor is smaller and consequently one\nshould commit funds less aggressively.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Fibonnacci Series, discovered by the Italian mathematician Leonardo de Pisa in the 14th centruy, is\nas follows: 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,etc..., where each successive number in the series is the\nsum of the previous two numbers. The ratio between successive numbers can be seen to approach .618,\nthe so called \"Golden Mean\" or \"Golden Ratio\" of ancient Greek architecture. The three important ratios\nthe series provides us with are .618, 1, and 1.618.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755093361,"sku":"\\V01\\C04\\FIBO.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_64e5a7cf-2f0e-4d71-a68a-f1b3a8c9e917.jpg?v=1739651265"},{"product_id":"v01-c04-fini-pdf","title":"V.1:4 (78-81): Finite Impulse Response Filter by ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D. with JACK K. HUTSON","description":"Finite Impulse Response Filter\nby ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D. with JACK K. HUTSON\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFigure 1 and 2 show a comparison of computer output using Fourier analysis Power and then Amplitude\nplots. It can be seen that the Power Spectrum plot, which is Amplitude squared, makes it very easy to\ndiscern which cycles are significant and which are not. The Power Spectrum suggests that cycles with\nperiods of less than 20 days may not be important, in the long move. Figure 3 is an example of computer\noutput plotted from the following Finite Impulse Response (FIR) Filter subroutine using a Hanning\nweighted moving average. A 41 day Hanning weight was used based on the 20 day interpretation from a\nFourier Power Spectrum (i.e. N = 2M + 1 e.g. 2(20) + 1 = 41 days).\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe subroutine may be expanded to incorporate any number of moving average weighting schemes\nbetween statements 1210 and 1230. This routine has been written to run using any computer that supports\nthe BASIC language and in addition a few extraneous variables (T$, P(?)) have been added to improve\ngraphic output if one is using the Compu Trac programming subsystem.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755126129,"sku":"\\V01\\C04\\FINI.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_edac71d8-a427-4172-b643-9508bc9d1623.jpg?v=1739651268"},{"product_id":"v01-c04-head-pdf","title":"V.1:4 (86-88): The Head and Shoulders Formation by JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer","description":"The Head and Shoulders Formation\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTechnical analysis as it is applied today to the anticipation and projection of impending price\nmovement of stocks or futures markets might be broken down into three major areas of study. These are:\n1) The study of price activity itself 2) the study of derivatives of price and 3) the study of internal\nindicators.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe study of price activity itself is generally of older vintage. The book, \"Technical Analysis of Stock\nTrends\" by Edwards and Magee is a study of market formations and trends within this area. Many of the\nmethods employed by technical speculators around the turn of the century, involved the study of price\nactivity. Identifying market formations, point and figure methods and swing charts are examples of tools\nused in the study of price activity.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe study of derivatives of price as a method of technical analysis is currently very popular due to the\navailability of mechanical calculation devices such as the microprocessor. This area includes the use of\nmoving averages, oscillators, momentum indicators, etc. This is a relatively new field of technical\nanalysis.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755158897,"sku":"\\V01\\C04\\HEAD.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_9e42200a-24c5-4414-a46c-c3af57f001ff.jpg?v=1739651270"},{"product_id":"v01-c04-liver-pdf","title":"V.1:4 (82-85): The Livermore System by JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer","description":"The Livermore System\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eLivermore is one of those names you might hear floating around among the chatter and ticks inside the\nlocal brokerage office. Or maybe you will catch a reference to him in some obscure article or book. Just\nas the markets of the various exchanges are often mystifying, so too are many of the historical characters\nsurrounding the markets.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eJesse L. Livermore was one of those characters, passing in and out around the Wall Street of the\nl890-1940 period. The classic \"rags to riches\" stereotype of this period. Humble beginnings as a New\nEngland \"dirt farmer\", impoverished, uneducated, but gifted with a natural ability for numbers and\nmathematics and possessing an acute memory of figures. He died in 1940, impoverished, depressed, but\nhopefully greatly humbled and a lot wiser. In between were 30-40 years of spectacular trading in the\nstock, cotton and grain markets pulsating out of Wall Street. He amassed millions and lost millions\nseveral times. His name appeared often in the pages of the major newspapers and magazines of the time.\nIdolized and despised. \"Livermore Heads Bear Raid!\" shouts one article and among the folks back home\nsitting around the standup radio conversing it wasn't uncommon to overhear someone swoon: \"If I only\nhad Livemmore's money!\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHis story is an educational one, for his ability to amass great fortunes in the market place was testimony\nto his understanding of the markets, while his ability to lose the same also testifies to the susceptibility of\nthe trader to the human element.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755191665,"sku":"\\V01\\C04\\LIVER.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_171665f5-d1c8-4998-b248-cf029f69cb58.jpg?v=1739651272"},{"product_id":"v01-c05-comm-pdf","title":"V.1:5 (120-122): Commodity Channel Index: Tool for Trading Cyclic Trends by DONALD R. LAMBERT","description":"Commodity Channel Index: Tool for Trading\nCyclic Trends\nby DONALD R. LAMBERT\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eReprinted from Commodities Magazine 1980 219 Parkade, Cedar Falls, IA 50613.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMany commodities exhibit some type of cyclical or seasonal price pattern. But, the commodity trader\nstill faces the problem of detecting when the regular price movements begin and end because climate and\nother real world conditions may affect their timing.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne method that can help spot these turns is the Commodity Channel Index (CCI), a recently developed\nindex which is somewhat akin to a \"standard score\" in statistics. The CCI doesn't calculate cycle\nlengths you must determine them yourself or rely on an advisory servicebut is a timing tool that\nworks best with seasonal or cyclical contracts.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo be useful in cyclical markets, an index must examine current prices in the light of past prices but must\nnot allow data from the distant past to confuse present patterns. For this reason, the CCI uses a moving\naverage rather than an exponentially smoothed average as a benchmark against which to measure current\nprices.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe comparison of current prices to moving averages solves one problem by providing a moving\nreference point. But, it leaves another problem for the trader: While some commodities typically move\nonly a few cents each day, daily moves in others might be hundreds of cents. Rather than develop\nseparate rules to determine each commodity's fluctuations, some standardization technique had to be\nfound.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755224433,"sku":"\\V01\\C05\\COMM.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_c5c5f462-b9c7-4c9b-b75b-25c18349a5fa.jpg?v=1739651274"},{"product_id":"v01-c05-comp-pdf","title":"V.1:5 (112-112): Computerizing Elliott by ROBERT R. PRECHTER, JR.","description":"Computerizing Elliott\nby ROBERT R. PRECHTER, JR.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA ny discipline that can be explained and quantifed is ultimately programmable, and the Elloitt Wave\nPrinciple is no exception. In fact, many aspects probably could be computerized relatively easily.\nHowever, in attempting to program \"Elliott\" in its entirety, we run into a problem, namely, the element\nthat is not easily programmable happens to be the most important and fundamental element of Elliott\nanalysis: wave counting. Wave counting precedes all other analysis under Elliott. If that aspect could be\nprogrammed, it would be easy to program the rest of Elliott wave analysis, including channeling,\nretracements and Fibonacci targeting.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe difficulty is that the standard in the Wave Principle is wave form, not time periodicity (as in cyclic\nanalysis), or even fixed time or price relationships within wave structures. Wave subdivisions of the same\ndegree often differ greatly in size and complexity, and can include variations such as extensions, diagonal\ntriangles and failures. Programming them would involve a tremendous number of \"If ... then's\"; and\ninstructing the computer to count waves in real time, considering all alternate possibilities, would require\na huge amount of statistical research that to date hasn't been done. The analyst would need to quantify\nthe probabilities of each structural shape occurring at each conceivable step in the progression of the\nmarket. Such research could take half a lifetime.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755257201,"sku":"\\V01\\C05\\COMP.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_8cc476d1-2d35-41fd-a666-825061e7bef2.jpg?v=1739651277"},{"product_id":"v01-c05-conf-pdf","title":"V.1:5 (98-102): Confessions of a Speculator: Why Losses Occur by JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer","description":"Confessions of a Speculator: Why Losses Occur\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON\/ Technical Analysis staff writer\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"The Markets\", whether envisioned as the stock markets, the futures markets or any of the myriad\nforms and reflections of price activity, are all somewhat compelling. Driven by hope, fear, greed,\ncuriosity or crowd psychology countless individuals gather around the exchanges of the world (or by\nproxy around their quote machines and computers), noting and participating in the constant movement of\nprices. Maybe it's the reflections of the future, cast in the shadows of price activity that compel so many.\nNevertheless, for some it is either a business or a serious hobby. If you are reading this article you\nprobably fall into one of the latter two categories. Whether you are a novice or an experienced speculator,\nit is good to remember that all of us are constantly falling prey to what W.D. Gann so aptly called \"the\nhuman element.\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat we need is a preventative medicine, and applying technical methods when entering and exiting the\nmarket is a good start. Disciplined implementation of a technical method lessens the probability that you\nwill succumb to greed or fear. It is also highly beneficial to obey certain time worn rules and that is the\nsubject of this article.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne of the best professional speculators I have ever encountered made the following statement in relation\nto establishing a sound foundation for successful speculation: \"The most important thing is to: 1 ) Learn\nthe right rules, 2) Obey the rules, and, 3) Implement them consistently.\" This applies to both general and\nspecific trading rules.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755289969,"sku":"\\V01\\C05\\CONF.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_6f802d77-a4c3-4ffe-b3d9-72fe917c1d35.jpg?v=1739651279"},{"product_id":"v01-c05-crook-pdf","title":"V.1:5 (103-104): Crooks, Cranks and Honest Citizens: Commodity Periodicals by FRED S. GEHM","description":"Crooks, Cranks and Honest Citizens:\nCommodity Periodicals\nby FRED S. GEHM\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e(The first of a regular feature column)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis is going to be a column of reviews of criticisms. It will be a consumer's guide to technical\nanalysis. This includes books, magazines, newsletters, seminars and other products.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCriticism is easy; any fool can criticize. However, responsible criticism is not easy. It is not easy to keep\nan open mind and, worse, it's almost impossible to know when your mind is not open. I have yet to meet\na bigot who didn't think he (or she) was the voice of reason, for example.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIf it is impossible to be unbiased (and it may well be) it is at least possible to be fair. Therefore I will\nallow the author(s) or editor(s) of the items I review to respond to my criticisms in this column. They will\nbe given a word count limit and if the length of their responses is within the count they will not be edited.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eUnfortunately, because of time constraints, I was unable to obtain any responses for this issue. So I have\ndecided in this first column to give brief reviews of several commodity publications. Many of these\npublications are quite valuable and worth a more leisurely review, which I hope to do in future issues. I\nalso plan to review stock market publications in a future issue.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755322737,"sku":"\\V01\\C05\\CROOK.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_e3281603-b89f-4fdc-adbd-c617b807e8d2.jpg?v=1739651282"},{"product_id":"v01-c05-dec-pdf","title":"V.1:5 (114-120): December Treasury Bonds by JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer","description":"December Treasury Bonds\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eInterest rate futures are always interesting to chart as well as to trade. Aside from the speculative aspects\nof interest rate futures, it is also valuable to know how much a lender is going to charge to let loose of his\ncash for awhile. For trading purposes the December and June Treasury Bond contracts are good vehicles\nto employ. I also find a quarterly Dow Jones 20 bond chart dating back to 1966 and a monthly chart of\nthe long term Treasuries (15 years or more) are helpful.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe following trades or positions were taken with a primary emphasis on staying in harmony with price\nand trend activity. The only tools used were: a monthly swing chart*, a weekly and daily bar chart, a daily\nswing chart, divisional factors of time, divisional factors of a price range and a basic understanding of\nprice formation and trend activity.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755355505,"sku":"\\V01\\C05\\DEC.PDF","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_b352d6e4-e223-4c1d-939f-df8dcde67573.jpg?v=1739651284"},{"product_id":"v01-c05-good-pdf","title":"V.1:5 (105-108): Good Trix by JACK K. HUTSON","description":"Good Trix\nby JACK K. HUTSON\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA few years ago I decided to explore the possibility of using a small computer to take some of the\ndrudgery out of trading. The endless hours of maintaining and experimenting with chart and numerical\naids to transaction timing was infringing upon my trade decision process. I always felt that by taking just\na little time, and cranking out just one more wonderful oscillator or average, that my chances for a\nprofitable trade would be improved. In most cases all I did was reassure myself that I had examined most\nevery \"system\" in my personal repertoire, but I had no idea whether this had actually improved my\ntrading. The one thing I was very sure about was that the time and effort required to make a trade\ndecision had jumped from minutes to hours. It was taking some of the fun out of trading.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMy experience with computers started while I was still in college, using a teletype terminal linked via\ntelephone to a time-sharing computer service. My professor was a physicist who had been drafted into\nteaching a mathematics course about differential equations. The book he chose relied heavily on using a\ncomputer to help solve these 'equations'. Our kindly Physics professor thought it would do us a great deal\nof good to use the time-shared computer arrangement to further our understanding of differential\nequations. This process was complicated by the fact that the books' computer examples were written in a\ndialect called Fortran and our time-shared computer spoke a language called BASIC. On this desperate\nnote began my self-taught computer education.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAfter more than ten years of remote computer timeshared use, I decided it was about time to consider\nusing a computer in my own personal endeavors. The so called \"personal\" computers had been on the\nmarket for about three years, by 1980, so I began to collect hardware information. I soon learned all about\nCPU's, disk drives and all the other new technology one could buy, and all about the wonderful speed\nthese machines promised.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755388273,"sku":"\\V01\\C05\\GOOD.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_4f088f16-0208-4161-acc8-eca75e9b8647.jpg?v=1739651287"},{"product_id":"v01-c05-log-pdf","title":"V.1:5 (123-123): The Logarithmic Scale. by JACK K. HUTSON","description":"The Logarithmic Scale.\nby JACK K. HUTSON\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSemi-Logarithmic (ratio, proportion or percentage paper) graphic rulings are used when the analyst\nwants to compare percentage price changes rather than absolute price changes. By plotting the logarithm\nof price in lieu of price itself we are able to directly compare percentage change in price at the three\ndollar verses the thirty dollar level. Mathematically, if there is a fixed percentage change between two\npairs of prices the difference between the logarithms of the price will be equal.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen the logarithms of price rather than the actual price are graphed, a constant rise or fall in price will\nequal a constant profit (or loss) percentage change. It is well-documented that stock and commodity\nprices follow general rules of percentage directional moves and corrections. These can be followed easily\nusing a logarithmic price scale and measured directly from the chart.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBecause of the time required to calculate logarithms, it is common practice to use graph paper that has a\nspecial logarithmic scale.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe logarithmic scale graph paper allows the trader to plot prices directly without calculating the\nlogarithm. The relation between a simple arithmetic price scale and a scale corresponding to it but\nprepared for plotting logarithms is shown in Example 2.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755421041,"sku":"\\V01\\C05\\LOG.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_28d69333-dbaf-4353-921e-922e37e33cb9.jpg?v=1739651289"},{"product_id":"v01-c05-natur-pdf","title":"V.1:5 (110-111): The Nature of Price Resistance by JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer","description":"The Nature of Price Resistance\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMost of us involved with speculative markets often are so preoccupied with \"effect\", or price activity,\nthat we ignore \"cause.\" But an understanding of cause can clarify our analysis of that all-important effect.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBasic cause might be defined as the ever-changing relationship between the forces of supply and demand.\nWe traders tend to think of commodity contracts only as speculative vehicles or abstractions. We tend to\nforget that the commodity contracts we so actively trade normally are a reflection of the actual physical\ngoods in which merchants are trading. As such, contract prices are closely tied to supply and demand.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eEffect, or price activity, might be divided into two basic market classifications. These are a trending (bull\nor bear) market and a non-trending (consolidating) market. A trending market is one in which the forces\nof supply and demand are moving from a state of balance thru a state of imbalance. A consolidating\nmarket is moving from a state of imbalance thru a state of balance or equilibrium.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTo the interactions of the two forces of supply and demand, we might add a third force, one which is\nconstantly interacting with the other two. We will call this third force \"resistance\" (normally called\n\"support and resistance\"). Resistance acts as a neutralizing force to the combined effect of supply and\ndemand. A market that is trending upward or downward will usually react or consolidate near or at major\nresistance. A major consolidation in the form of a top or bottom is usually formed at an important\nresistance level. Price tends to vibrate or oscillate near resistance or sometimes will stop rather abrubtly\nat resistance and change trend.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755453809,"sku":"\\V01\\C05\\NATUR.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_66fe25f8-c99b-4f9f-b104-20c93d9390f1.jpg?v=1739651291"},{"product_id":"v01-c05-sidebf-pdf","title":"V.1:5 (120-122): SIDEBAR: Four steps to calculate CCI","description":"The Channel Index can help both stock and commodity traders detect when \"real world conditions,\" such as climate, are affecting seasonal price patterns. The author explains how to calculate as well as use the CCI. By Donald R. Lambert\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFour steps to calculate CCI\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e1.Compute today's \"typical\" price using high low and close:\nX1 = 1\/3 (H + L + C)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e2. Compute a moving average of the N most recent typical prices:","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755486577,"sku":"\\V01\\C05\\SIDEBF.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_42f427f0-f67f-476c-8bac-12fa87d5fd4f.jpg?v=1739651294"},{"product_id":"v01-c06-commp-pdf","title":"V.1:6 (145-146): Commodity Portfolios by DR. BASIL VENITIS","description":"Commodity Portfolios\nby DR. BASIL VENITIS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe techniques introduced here are a pre-requisite for any serious commodity investor who does not\nplay the game just for the fun of it. They are the guidelines that separate the men from the boys. The main\nreason futures traders lose money is poor portfolio management. Some economists subscribe to the\nrandom walk theory for commodities, i.e., they believe that it is impossible to forecast prices. Even when\nthis extremely cynical point of view is considered, it is still possible to profit greatly in a consistent way\nby controlling the risk and proper portfolio diversification.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDIVERSIFICATION\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCapital preservation should be the priority item in any portfolio. If the trader survives unfavorable\nmarkets, he will be present to reap the rewards of winning market positions. Every portfolio has a\nsystematic risk and a statistical risk. The systematic risk is due to the high betas of some commodities,\ni.e., the relative return of a commodity with respect to the return of the commodity group. Beta is more or\nless a degree of relative volatility. For example, from the precious metals group, silver has the highest\nbeta. Brokerage houses and exchanges try to reduce the beta effect by increasing the margin of high beta\ncommodities. The systematic risk can be minimized by selecting low beta commodities.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755519345,"sku":"\\V01\\C06\\COMMP.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_c52eb546-e10f-47a0-98c6-b780e4710ab4.jpg?v=1739651296"},{"product_id":"v01-c06-comms-pdf","title":"V.1:6 (147-148): Commodity Spreading: An Art of Price Differentials by DR. BASIL VENITIS","description":"Commodity Spreading: An Art of Price\nDifferentials\nby DR. BASIL VENITIS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA Commodity Spread or Straddle is a combination of a long position and a short position in related\ncommodity futures. It is a sort of arbitrage between futures. (The same way hedging is a sort of arbitrage\nbetween spot commodities and futures.)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFour basic types of spreads are the following:\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e1. The arbitrage between different delivery months of the same commodity is called an interdelivery\nspread.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e2. The arbitrage of the same commodity in different exchanges is called an intermarket spread.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e3. Arbitrage of different but related commodities is called an intercommodity spread.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e4. Arbitrage between a commodity and its products is called a product spread. The most popular\nproduct spread is the BOM (Bean-Oil-Meal) spread between soybeans and their crushed forms, i.e.\nsoybean oil and meal. This is called soybean crush when one buys the beans and sells the products, or\nreverse soybean crush when one buys the product an sells the beans.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCommodity spreads are usually expressed as the long futures price minus the short futures price;\nhowever, if the two legs of an intercommodity spread are of different sizes, the spread can be expressed\neither as a balanced spread with unequal sized contracts on each leg but equal numbers of units on each\nleg; or, it can be expressed as money spreads in total dollar value of the two contracts. For example, the\nspread 4 October hogs minus 3 October cattle is a balanced spread with both legs representing an equal\nsize of 120,000 lbs. of meat.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755552113,"sku":"\\V01\\C06\\COMMS.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_40d13fd6-6632-4354-af8d-d31df1d9731f.jpg?v=1739651298"},{"product_id":"v01-c06-crook-pdf","title":"V.1:6 (141-142): Crooks, Cranks and Honest Citizens: Commodity Conferences by FRED S. GEHM","description":"Crooks, Cranks and Honest Citizens:\nCommodity Conferences\nby FRED S. GEHM\/ Technical Analysis staff writer\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI wanted to title this column \"How I Spent My Summer Vacation.\" But the conferences were in Chicago\nand no reasonable individual would ever believe that another individual, reasonable or not, would go to\nChicago for a vacation. Especially in the summer.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBe that as it may, the National Association of Futures Trading Advisors (NAFTA) and Managed Account\nReports (MAR) held conferences in Chicago this summer. Attending these conferences is either A)\nabsolutely essential or, B) a complete waste of time, depending on who you are and what you are trying\nto accomplish there.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe NAFTA conference was obviously geared toward the needs of commodity trading advisors (CTAs)\nand commodity pool operators (CPOs). It consisted solely of panel discussions on securities law and\nregistration requirements, National Futures Association (NFA) compliance and audit procedures, the\nexchanges, the futures management industry's future trends and potential problems, and cooperation\nbetween futures commissions merchants (FCMs) and CTAs and CPOs in order to raise captial.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe MAR conference was not as narrowly focused. It had panel discussions on portfolio expansion and\nspecialized trading programs, and on institutional investing in commodity money management.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755584881,"sku":"\\V01\\C06\\CROOK.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_6bb0830c-4644-4a5f-aca4-a06f77b50206.jpg?v=1739651300"},{"product_id":"v01-c06-fore-pdf","title":"V.1:6 (149-151): To Forecast or To Follow by JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer","description":"To Forecast or To Follow\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBrowsing the ads of Barron's Financial Weekly or Commodities magazine can be mesmerizing.\nFinancial gurus, \"new discoveries\" and \"wonder\" systems abound. Too much skepticism might be\nunwise, since new discoveries are in fact made and old knowledge rediscovered all the time. But it's\ndoubtful given the velocity at which they are currently streaming forth, that all these discoveries are as\nvaluable as they claim. Nevertheless, the good is always there in the shadows of the bold print. So, the\ntask becomes to separate the wheat from the tares.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe task is best begun by attempting to differentiate between the underlying concepts, and then\ngravitating toward one or another that by its own virtue appears to be practical and based on sound\nreasoning.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI would venture to say that the philosophy or reasoning underlying a given method of implementing an\ninvestment can be classified into one of two categories: the school of forecasting and the school of\ntrend following. Forecasting we will define as placing a primary emphasis on predetermining the\nparticular price level that a given market will reach, or how long the move in force will last. The\nforecaster asks the question, \"What is the market going to do?\"\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTrend following is similar in nature because it too is a type of forecasting, but instead of projected time\nor price, the focus is on current activity and direction. We will define trend following as measuring the\ncurrent trend(s) of a given market, and then depending on the Law of Inertia or Momentum to enhance\nthe probability that a given trend will continue. The trend follower asks the question, \"What is the market\ndoing?\"","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755617649,"sku":"\\V01\\C06\\FORE.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_d47a2a9e-eb06-42a7-b7f0-c80943cdf6ef.jpg?v=1739651303"},{"product_id":"v01-c06-funn-pdf","title":"V.1:6 (143-144): The Funnel Formation by ORY J. CANAL","description":"The Funnel Formation\nby ORY J. CANAL\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Funnel formation is a technical analysis tool that you may find very useful in analyzing stocks. To\nbegin this discussion of the Funnel, let's locate one on a chart. For this we will use the chart in the back of\nthe Wall Street Journal . It has the industrials, transports, rails, and of course volume of all the stocks\ntraded on the New York Stock Exchange for that particular day. (The paper doesn't cost very much and if\nyou make a mistake on the chart, you can buy a fresh one tomorrow.) The Funnel is formed by points 1,\n2, and 3, 5, 6, and 7. Points 1, 2 and 3 form an uptrend line, while points 5 and 6 form a downtrend line,\nwith both lines meeting at point 7. The result looks like a funnel. (or megaphoneAll you need now is a\nhandle on the uptrend line.) This market phenomenon can and does occur in the intra-day moves, in\nweekly moves, monthly as is illustrated, and gigantic moves which take place after years.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePoints 1, 2, and 3 are support points, that is, where the market finds support, is held there, and reverses\ndirection. Points 5 and 6 are resistance points, that is, points where the market is unable to rise any\nfurther, meets resistance, and reverses direction. By connecting points 1, 2, and 3 we create the support\nline, the bottom of the Funnel. Doing the same with points 5 and 6 creates a resistance line on the top of\nthe Funnel. If these two lines are extended out far enough, they join at point 7 forming the Funnel. Line 9,\n10 has been drawn to show that the market is in an uptrend, and to illustrate exactly where the Funnel fits\nin. Line 9, 10 is also called a resistance line.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755650417,"sku":"\\V01\\C06\\FUNN.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_3251bf62-a56f-40d0-85d0-7a42838dfc49.jpg?v=1739651305"},{"product_id":"v01-c06-furt-pdf","title":"V.1:6 (137-141): Further Analysis of Triple Exponential Smoothing by ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D.\/Technical Analysis staff writer","description":"Further Analysis of Triple Exponential\nSmoothing\nby ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D.\/Technical Analysis staff writer\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn the July issue of Technical Analysis, J. Hutson presented a method of using triple exponential\nsmoothing (TRIX) as a trading oscillator and supplied a BASIC routine for calculating TRIX plots. In\nthis article we present a precise method for selecting the TRIX alpha constant using Fourier Spectrum\nanalysis and show how to use historical price data for selecting buy and sell indicators.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn Part I we discuss choosing an optimal alpha value using Fourier Analysis and the author's alpha\nselection curve. Readers unfamiliar with Fourier Analysis and its uses in designing trading systems (as\nexplained in the author's January and May articles) may skip this section and proceed directly to Part II.\nIn Part II we discuss selection of significance bands and trend reversal constants for optimal selection of\nbuy and sell indicators.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePart I: TRIX Spectrum Analysis and Alpha Selection\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe TRIX oscillator consists of applying triple exponential filtering (filtering the input data three times)\nfollowed by output data differencing, i.e., taking the difference between the current filtered value and the\nprevious day filtered value. The idea behind this method is that the differencing operation attenuates very\nlong data cycles (low frequencies), and the triple exponential filter removes the daily trading noise which\nis predominant at short cycles (high frequencies). The resultant filtered data only contains the cycles of\ninterest for trading. The differencing operation unfortunately has the effect of increasing the power in all\nhigher frequency components, and thus triple exponential filtering is required in order to adequately\nsuppress these noise components. (Double exponential filters do not provide enough smoothing to\neliminate all the noise components.) In principle, we want to choose the TRIX alpha constant to retain all\nthe data cycles of interest and to reject all of the high frequency noise components. Fourier Analysis of\nhistoric price data allows us to do this.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755715953,"sku":"\\V01\\C06\\FURT.PDF","price":5.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_96ced116-aea4-4c36-b246-9f9ecb42a309.jpg?v=1739651307"},{"product_id":"v01-c06-mark-pdf","title":"V.1:6 (133-134): Market Blueprints by JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer","description":"Market Blueprints\nby JESSE H. THOMPSON\/Technical Analysis staff writer\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA method or system for trading can be likened to a building in that its viability depends on its\nfoundation and structure. Ideally the cornerstones of this building will be purpose, preparation and\nplanning. That is, its important first to define the express purpose of a developing method, and then to\nadequately prepare yourself to properly develop and implement your plan on a practical basis. The\nframework of the building is composed of the specific parts of the plan.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDEFINING A PURPOSE for your blueprint, is not as simple as it immediately appears. The most\nobvious and most commonly expressed purposes are either to pick tops and bottoms or to attempt to\nmeasure the trend. But in actual practice, neither one is good enough from the investor's viewpoint. Many\nan investor has been right on the market and has still gone broke. The reasons are many; one overtrades\nor overleverages himself, fails to control risk when entering the market, gets out too soon, etc. So in\nactual practice a trader should attempt to do more than simply pick tops or bottoms, or measure the trend.\nA higher goal is to specifically limit losses, to allow profits to run,to protect accumulated profits, and\nfinally, to attempt to enhance the probabilities that all this can be accomplished.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis goal sounds so simple and straightforward. but anyone associated with today's investment markets\ncan attest that all of this is much easier spoken than accomplished.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755748721,"sku":"\\V01\\C06\\MARK.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_b4706cc3-a8af-466d-84f9-d11a2d8c00c8.jpg?v=1739651310"},{"product_id":"v01-c06-mod-pdf","title":"V.1:6 (134-135): Modern Hedging For Everyone by DR. BASIL VENITIS","description":"Modern Hedging For Everyone.\nby DR. BASIL VENITIS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe business world is entering a new period full of excitement, which one day might well be called the\nEra of Hedging. When this period matures, everyone in the free enterprise system will probably be\ndirectly or indirectly involved in hedging!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhat is hedging? It is the arbitrage* between futures and their corresponding spot commodities financial\ninstruments, or services. The classical hedger assumes a futures position exactly opposite to his spot\nposition. For him, hedging is a sort of insurance against severe price fluctuations. On the other hand, the\nmodern hedger not only seeks protection from price fluctuations, but he also tries to profit from the\nvariations of basis, which is the difference between futures and spot prices. The modern hedger\nspeculates on the basis variation by placing and lifting the hedge several times on part of his inventory.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eUnder normal circumstances, the futures prices are higher than the spot prices due to carrying cost. This\nmarket is called a normal market or a carrying charge market or contango. However, when traders\nare worried about possible shortages, then the futures are discounted to spots, and this is called an\ninverted market. Of course, when the futures contract matures, the spot price is almost equal to the\nfutures price.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755781489,"sku":"\\V01\\C06\\MOD.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_1f50c0b5-e580-42d2-b730-7e47248abfe0.jpg?v=1739651312"},{"product_id":"v01-c06-myone-pdf","title":"V.1:6 (128-128): My One and Only Stock Market Recommendation by MERTON A. HILL","description":"My One and Only Stock Market\nRecommendation\nby MERTON A. HILL\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMy interest in the stock market developed some 40 years ago. My first purchase was 100 shares of\nBudd Manufacturing (builders of railroad cars and heavy machinery Budd has since been acquired by\nThyssen AG, West Germany's steelmaker.)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhy I selected Budd for purchase I will never know probably because it appeared to be acting well on\nthe market. . . This is in itself not necessarily a good reason for buying. It should be supported by sound\nbackground information. I was so green at this business I did not even know about brokers and brokerage\nhouses. I went to the bank where I had my account.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMy banker disapproved of what I was doing but agreed to execute the purchase. I became the proud\npossessor of 100 shares of Budd Manufacturing at $11 per share plus brokerage.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe price of the stock gradually sagged to 8 (or perhaps it was 6.) I kept this stock for several years and\nfinally sold it at 18 without any feeling of spectacular achievement.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWith a growing family and not a large income, I dabbled as much as I could afford. When the Syntex star\nbegan to rise I purchased 100 shares at 29 sold at 43 and watched it steadily rise to around 198 \nand split. Much later it sagged to 28 and remembering my previous experience at 29, I promptly bought\n200 shares ... It slowly sagged to 18 where I sold. Did I get whacked! I should have kept this stock. At\nthis writing it is 33 and appears to be on the make, although the price fluctuates considerably.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755814257,"sku":"\\V01\\C06\\MYONE.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_376f11c7-376e-4007-a71f-9c7664e54a23.jpg?v=1739651314"},{"product_id":"v01-c06-tak-pdf","title":"V.1:6 (129-132): Taking Stock of Commodity Trading Methods by DR. BASIL VENITIS","description":"Taking Stock of Commodity Trading Methods\nby DR. BASIL VENITIS\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFundamental Analysis\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFundamental Analysis is price analysis based on basic economic, political, and ecological factors.\nThese factors include supply and demand, seasonal cycles, weather, government policy, and so forth.\nFundamental Analysis is different from Technical Analysis, which is based on psychological factors such\nas open interest, trade volume, price chart formations, commitments of large commercial houses, trends,\nand the like.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn Fundamental Analysis, the present price of a commodity can be expressed as a function of relatively\nfew variables, namely the price of the commodity at the previous stage, the present demand, the Treasury\nBill interest rate, the inflation rate, and the inventory change between the last two stages. The inventory\nchange is equal to the difference between supply and demand. For agricultural commodities the inventory\nchange is usually calculated as the new crop plus the old crop carryover, plus imports, minus domestic\nutilization, minus exports. (Note: For grain the government supports prices by buying large amounts of\ngrain or financing grain supplies through government loans. Therefore, for grain only, we have to adjust\nthe previous figures of inventory change by adding the government sales for domestic use and subtracting\nthe amount of grain under government loan.)","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755847025,"sku":"\\V01\\C06\\TAK.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_8766d610-b8d6-40b9-bedd-175e36b1691d.jpg?v=1739651316"},{"product_id":"v01-c06-tech-pdf","title":"V.1:6 (126-127): Technical Analysis by JACK K. HUTSON","description":"Technical Analysis\nby JACK K. HUTSON\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThank you for your very kind and in some cases flattering response to the \"Reader Service Form\"\npublished in Technical Analysis July 1983 issue. Feedback from you, our readers, helps guide both our\ngrowing staff and authors to what you would like to read about. In general, based on the forms received\nso far, our readers want to see more about trading technique application and theory presented in such a\nway that everyone can understand. It is probably apparent by now that some of our articles are not easy\nreading. In fact, to really get the most out of Technical Analysis the reader should study the material just\nas you would a college text. Usually by the time you see Technical Analysis articles they have gone\nthrough a number of changes that are intended to improve their readability. There still exists the\nprobability that the author and our editing will not clarify some things sufficiently for every reader.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe trader need not be a mathematician or computer programmer to make money in the markets. In fact,\nmy own experience has shown that if you cannot make money without a crutch, then with all the\nadvisors, computers and aides in the world you will never do much better than break even. If you, as a\ntrader, can financially \"live\" through your first two dozen trades and show a net profit, then every issue of\nthis magazine should give you a means to help systemize your winnings and reduce losses. Since this is\nnot a news letter service written by one individuals the form and content of Technical Analysis varies\ngreatly. The only guidelines imposed on our authors' presentations are the editorial staff's very fallible\nideas as to what is good clear information and what is not.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755879793,"sku":"\\V01\\C06\\TECH.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_04feb678-5876-48f2-8cd0-20cbe1d64475.jpg?v=1739651318"},{"product_id":"v01-c07-callput-pdf","title":"V.1:7 (168-169): CALL\/PUT OPTIONS 2.0","description":"CALL\/PUT OPTIONS 2.0\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eName of Program: Call\/Put Options 2.0\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePublisher: Harloff, Inc.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePrice: $499.00\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBackup: Disk is protected, no backup provisions\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eHardware: APPLE II+, IIe or III in emulation mode. DOS 3.3\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Call\/Put Options 2.0 Program has definite value for the trader who has decided to deal in the options\nmarkets. The program has some glaring faults, and some less important disadvantages are apparent, but\noverall the usefulness for the options trader outweighs these flaws.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis program model was constructed by analysis of 2000 individual call and put options. Interest rates,\ndividends and commissions are not considered by this model. The purpose of the program is similar to\nthat of the familiar Black-Scholes model; although the author, Gary J. Harloff, Ph.D., goes to some effort\nto point out that his model is a \"New Original Model\" and is addressed to THE GRAND MASTER\nOPTIONS INVESTOR (whoever he or they may be.) Nevertheless, it may be assumed that the ultimate\npurpose of this program is to help the buyer make money in the options markets, and that that similarity\nwith other option modelling programs will not be denied.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755912561,"sku":"\\V01\\C07\\CALLPUT.PDF","price":2.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_2f95efc3-8229-4aa8-8997-3c85d66cbc8f.jpg?v=1739651321"},{"product_id":"v01-c07-daytrad-pdf","title":"V.1:7 (160-165): Day Trading The Averages by JOHN F. KEPKA","description":"Day Trading The Averages\nby JOHN F. KEPKA\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhen Stock Index Futures trading with the Value Line contract was initiated at the Kansas City\nBoard of Trade, futures traders suddenly gained the opportunity to trade the entire stock market. Large\nprofitable moves became available, but along with them came the associated high risk, due to the\nincreased daily price swings of the Dow Jones Industrials, S\u0026amp;P 500, NY Composite, Value Line, and the\nnew S\u0026amp;P 100 Index. Trading by using daily High, Low and Closing prices can be very risky in a market\nwhere futures contracts can move $2500 or more in one day (There are no daily price limits in stock\nindex futures contracts.)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eI have always believed that excellent trading results could be achieved in this market by using technical\ntrading systems, operating on intraday data. By monitoring price action more frequently during the day\nthe risk factor on a given trade can be reduced, and turning points in the market may be entered and\nexited at optimal times rather than only at market openings or closes, thus giving the trader a distinct\nadvantage. Since the market turns up or down throughout the day, the closing price, which most traders\nnow use for their analysis, is the confirmation of the turning point not the turning point itself.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eExpense is always a consideration. Recently, the equipment for providing intraday price quotes and\nanalysis, both hardware and software, became available to the trader at reasonable cost. The most\nexpensive part of the analysis is the monthly charge for the quote machine, of which a large percentage is\nthe monthly fee paid directly to the individual exchanges by the quote machine supplier. My current\nequipment configuration for intraday analysis consists of a Commodity Communications quote machine,\nan Apple computer (disk drives, ram disk and serial card and an optional accelerator card, which is really\nnecessary to speed up computations by 3 times), an Integral Data Systems 460 printer, and the Intraday\nAnalyst (IDA) software. A second Apple system using CompuTrac is used for interday number crunching.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755945329,"sku":"\\V01\\C07\\DAYTRAD.PDF","price":4.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ee4b817c-98a9-4f99-a16a-3067936ef441.jpg?v=1739651323"},{"product_id":"v01-c07-four-pdf","title":"V.1:7 (173-178): FOURlER ANALYSIS! IN A NUTSHELL FASTER and BETTER by Anthony Warren Ph.D.","description":"FOURlER ANALYSIS! IN A NUTSHELL\nFASTER and BETTER\nby Anthony Warren Ph.D.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFor those individuals who are currently using Fourier Spectrum analysis, this article describes some\ntechniques that make the analysis easier to perform and the spectral plots easier to interpret. (The reader\nmay also want to review the January articles on Fourier Analysis 1 , or the May article on its use in\nselecting moving average parameters 2 .) Part I. of this article attempts to shed some light on the question,\n\"How many data points should I use for doing Spectrum Analysis?\". In a nutshell, the answer is that the\ndata length should cover at least one cycle of the longest cycle in the data (i.e., for most stocks and\ncommodities, one trading year). Part II. describes a simple preprocessing calculation that reduces the time\nneeded to obtain a Spectrum plot. This makes it practical to generate Spectrum plots for a long time\nseries, say one to two years of data, on a regular basis.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePart I. Using Long Time Series for High Resolution Spectrum Plots\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOne of the most important considerations in generating Spectrum plots is how to resolve spectral peaks,\ni.e. how to find the frequency (rate of oscillation in cycles\/year), or alternatively, how to find the cycle\nlength of the highest power peaks in the spectrum (which ultimately should give you an idea of when to\ntrade). The ability to resolve spectral peaks is directly proportional to the length of time over which the\ndata are collected. For example, when using three months of data (one quarter of a year), the lowest\nfrequency components in the Fourier Spectrum are at 0, 4, 8,...cycles\/yr. Consequently, we can resolve\nspectral peaks with an accuracy of only about four cycles\/year, and probably less due to noise averaging\nand other effects. By contrast, with a full year's data we can resolve spectral peaks with an accuracy close\nto one cycle\/year. This higher resolution is valuable for optimizing the filter constants (cycle length, Trix\nalpha, etc.) used in many technical analyses.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133755978097,"sku":"\\V01\\C07\\Four.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_ea48683e-d345-424f-b713-7535216631ad.jpg?v=1739651326"},{"product_id":"v01-c07-gold-pdf","title":"V.1:7 (179-181): Gold Stocks by RICHARD J. MATURI","description":"Gold Stocks\nby RICHARD J. MATURI\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCan the average investor successfully participate in the gold market without knowing the intricacies of\ncommodity trading, and without having to deal with the problems associated with owning precious\nmetals? The answer is yes. The volatility of gold prices provide ample opportunity for substantial profits\nfor the investor. During the past ten years, I have actively traded a NYSE gold mining stock, Benguet\n(BE), with great success. Benguet is a producer of gold, and the stock can be traded for its play on the\nprice fluctuations of gold as well as giving the investor the opportunity to participate in the fortunes of\nthe company and the market overall.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA little over a year ago, I developed a trading strategy for Benguet in hopes of earning a 50's, gain after\ncommissions, a goal I thought was probably unrealistic. Instead, after a year of trading Benguet I realized\na totally unexpected gain of 163% over my original investment. During the period from March 1982\nthrough March 1983, an average investment of $2,432 yielded a yearly gain of $3,971 after commissions.\nThis gain was in addition to any dividends paid, interest earned, and gains on other stocks while waiting\nto purchase Benguet. Of course, the stock market boom contributed to my success, but if I had simply\npurchased Benguet at the beginning of the period and sold it at the end, a gain of \"only\" 107%, would\nhave been earned; a difference of 56%, -- which is more than my original investment goal. All this while\nthe price of gold from the beginning to the end of the period varied little.","brand":"store-traders-com","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":52133756207473,"sku":"\\V01\\C07\\Gold.PDF","price":3.95,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/files\/unnamed_36a083d4-bb93-48f7-8ed7-aa374aa9d88c.jpg?v=1739651328"}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0900\/3843\/6209\/collections\/volume-1-1982-83-18.gif?v=1739676495","url":"https:\/\/shop.traders.com\/collections\/articles-volume-1.oembed","provider":"Stocks \u0026 Commodities","version":"1.0","type":"link"}